Automated Team Capsule for 2016-17 Arkansas State20-12 (0.625) | Sun Belt
All-Play Percentage: 0.577 (149th)
Schedule Strength: 0.478 (187th)
Record Quality: 0.087 (120th)
Avg. Season Rank: 106.09 (108th)
Pace: 69.46 (228th)
Momentum: -3.77 (312th)
Off. Momentum: -1.22 (270th)
Def. Momentum: -2.55 (291st)
Consistency: -8.61 (136th)
Res. Consistency: -10.81 (131st)
Away From Home: -0.85 (242nd)
Paper Tiger Factor: 0.74 (48th)
NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category. Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement. Includes games through April 3, 2017. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
OFFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
102.03
69.45
31.52
63.57
81.89
36.30
44.33
25.92
9.39
36.24
20.97
6.97
33.22
35.00
19.94
56.98
10.28
18.00
8.18
31.65
25.61
42.74
1.89
RANK:
157th
226th
39th
335th
167th
143rd
151st
283rd
246th
123rd
263rd
298th
307th
6th
36th
243rd
200th
24th
48th
288th
271st
6th
13th
DEFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
101.07
69.47
31.54
--
79.28
34.94
44.08
27.75
9.57
34.49
22.26
7.14
32.09
29.27
18.23
62.29
9.40
13.22
5.25
35.01
28.08
36.92
1.98
RANK:
138th
121st
314th
--
79th
108th
161st
91st
84th
118th
119th
31st
21st
209th
236th
242nd
64th
85th
40th
123rd
148th
252nd
242nd
ANALYSIS: As an average to slightly above-average foe, Arkansas State should probably not be discounted by opponents this year. They have a record of 20-12 and are ranked 149th overall (out of 351) in the latest Haslametrics ratings. They are also ranked by this site as the #5 team (out of 12) in the Sun Belt (average ranking 187.5).
If there is a strength for Arkansas State this year, it's probably on the defensive end of the court. The team is rated 138th in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than 102 points for every 100 possessions vs. AO. Arkansas State does a bang-up job preventing the opposition from draining jumpers in between the three-point line and the low post. They're ranked 21st in Division I in defensive mid-range field goal percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 32.1% of their attempts from that distance. Arkansas State is also one of the better teams when it comes to not allowing opponents to convert scoring chances off of offensive rebounds. The squad allows AO to convert only 5.3% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 40th in the NCAA). If Arkansas State does exhibit a weakness on the defensive end of the floor, it'd likely be the team's tendency to send opponents to the line too much by fouling. The squad has a rating of 31.54 in defensive free throw attempt rate vs. AO, which ranks 38th-worst in the country.
Arkansas State plays at about the same level on offense as they do on defense. The team ranks 157th nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring about 102 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Arkansas State will routinely look to penetrate, pound the ball inside, and score from as short a distance as possible. The ball-club is sixth in the NCAA in ratio of near-proximity attempts to total field goal attempts. As far as converting those near-proximity shots goes, the team shoots 57.0% vs. AO, which falls somewhere in the middle of the pack of the rankings in that category. Arkansas State also appears to be one of the top-notch offensive rebounding teams you will find this year. Against AO, the squad has a rating of 18.00 in potential points scored off of second chances (ranked 24th in the NCAA), and they convert 8.2% of their second-chance opportunities (ranked 48th) as well. If Arkansas State does have a glaring weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's poor shooting at the line. The squad makes just 63.6% of their free throw attempts, which ranks 17th-worst in Division I.
Arkansas State has recently performed below their norm from an efficiency standpoint. The team is currently ranked 312th in the country in positive momentum.
Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location. Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.
CURIOUS TRENDS:
Arkansas State is typically better vs. teams that do a nice job converting inside the paint. Against foes that have an offensive near-proximity field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 60.28%, Arkansas State performs above their norm 80% of the time. Against the remaining opposition, the team performs above average 33% of the time.
When facing teams that fail to defend efficiently inside the paint, Arkansas State often performs better than normal. Arkansas State is more efficient than usual 59% of the time when facing teams that have a defensive near-proximity field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 57.76%. In their other contests, Arkansas State performs better than the norm 22% of the time.
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