Automated Team Capsule for 2014-15 Michigan State27-12 (0.692) | Big Ten
All-Play Percentage: 0.971 (11th)
Schedule Strength: 0.735 (6th)
Record Quality: 0.394 (17th)
Avg. Season Rank: 10.99 (10th)
Pace: 64.00 (276th)
Momentum: -0.19 (173rd)
Off. Momentum: 1.41 (121st)
Def. Momentum: -1.60 (230th)
Consistency: -10.54 (306th)
Res. Consistency: -15.03 (332nd)
Away From Home: 0.70 (86th)
Paper Tiger Factor: -2.84 (305th)
NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category. Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement. Includes games through April 6, 2015. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
OFFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
112.78
64.23
31.00
62.37
83.40
40.73
48.83
29.75
11.99
40.31
26.89
10.31
38.32
26.76
18.43
68.88
12.60
15.06
8.04
35.67
32.25
32.08
2.04
RANK:
15th
258th
89th
341st
111th
10th
10th
104th
28th
8th
131st
81st
51st
255th
69th
8th
97th
187th
51st
125th
139th
278th
248th
DEFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
90.26
63.77
29.15
--
82.19
30.61
37.24
26.76
7.87
29.41
27.38
8.03
29.34
28.05
14.70
52.42
10.35
14.61
5.66
32.56
33.31
34.13
1.98
RANK:
15th
69th
179th
--
178th
11th
5th
117th
27th
6th
257th
60th
6th
151st
67th
22nd
91st
124th
62nd
117th
252nd
151st
197th
ANALYSIS: A top-25 caliber adversary, Michigan State will likely be a stiff test for any team in Division I. They have a record of 27-12 and are ranked 11th overall (out of 351) in the latest Haslametrics ratings. Of the 14 schools in the Big Ten (average ranking 57.3), they're currently ranked as our #2 team in the conference. Sporting a strength-of-schedule rating of 0.735 (the sixth-highest in the country), Michigan State has prepared themselves by challenging some of the best teams in the college game.
Michigan State is undoubtedly one of the best in the business on offense. The team is rated 15th in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 112 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Michigan State is a very dangerous team when it comes to shooting the rock, ranking in the top-25 in three of our four major field goal categories. They convert 40.3% of their three-pointers (eighth in the nation), 68.9% of their near-proximity attempts (eighth), and 48.8% of their total shots from the field (tenth) vs. AO. Michigan State also does a pretty solid job of scoring points off of offensive rebounds. Against AO, the team successfully converts 8.0% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 51st nationally). If Michigan State does have a glaring weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's poor shooting at the line. The squad makes just 62.4% of their free throw attempts, which ranks 11th-worst in Division I.
Michigan State plays at roughly the same level defensively as they do offensively. The team ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing about 90 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Michigan State will wreak havoc with many opponents' shooting percentages this year. And it doesn't really matter where the shots originate; the team ranks in the top-25 in each of the four major defensive shooting categories. They allow AO to make just 29.4% of their three-pointers (sixth in the nation), 29.3% of their mid-range shots (sixth), 52.4% of their near-proximity attempts (22nd), and 37.2% of their total shots from the field (fifth). Michigan State also does an adequate job to prevent opponents from scoring off of offensive rebounds. The squad allows AO to convert only 5.7% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 62nd in the NCAA).
Michigan State has been one of the more erratic teams in NCAA basketball this year (presently ranked 306th in the country in consistency), which makes forecasting the outcomes of their upcoming games tougher than most.
Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location. Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.
CURIOUS TRENDS:
Michigan State performs worse against squads that find ways to get to the free throw line. When facing teams that have an offensive free throw attempt rate vs. AO greater than 27.57, Michigan State is more efficient than normal 31% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 69% of the time.
When playing teams that aren't terribly skilled defensively, Michigan State usually performs better than average. Michigan State is more efficient than normal 69% of the time when facing clubs that have a defensive efficiency rating vs. AO greater than 97.07. In all other contests, Michigan State performs better than average 31% of the time.
Michigan State is typically better vs. teams that have trouble defending the mid-range shot. Against foes that have a defensive mid-range field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 34.83%, Michigan State performs above their norm 69% of the time. Against the remaining opposition, the team performs above average 31% of the time.
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