Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2016-17 Toledo 17-17 (0.500) | Mid-American

All-Play Percentage: 0.586 (145^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.508 (150^th)	Record Quality: -0.010 (182^nd)	Avg. Season Rank: 159.35 (158^th)
Pace: 68.82 (258^th)	Momentum: 1.35 (103^rd)	Off. Momentum: -2.05 (303^rd)	Def. Momentum: 3.40 (12^th)
Consistency: -9.84 (284^th)	Res. Consistency: -11.47 (183^rd)	Away From Home: -1.94 (319^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: 0.07 (91^st)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 3, 2017. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

104.17

27.30

67.78

81.36

46.04

30.52

35.22

18.54

36.15

32.30

61.94

7.19

14.52

6.84

37.52

22.78

39.70

1.98

RANK:

113^th

179^th

270^th

194^th

80^th

148^th

169^th

317^th

184^th

39^th

94^th

342^nd

178^th

147^th

134^th

315^th

37^th

109^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

102.31

22.34

85.43

46.28

26.16

32.25

26.61

37.52

32.66

64.66

12.83

11.37

6.08

30.63

31.15

38.23

1.92

RANK:

175^th

29^th

312^th

258^th

38^th

44^th

291^st

208^th

321^st

299^th

312^th

11^th

114^th

17^th

257^th

285^th

324^th

ANALYSIS:
Toledo is a fairly decent basketball team that, while likely better than average, isn't quite good enough to crack any top-25 rankings this year. Ranked 145th overall (out of 351) in our most recent ratings, they presently have a record of 17-17. They are also ranked by this site as the #3 team (out of 12) in the MAC (average ranking 175.6).

If there is a strength for Toledo this year, it's probably on the offensive end of the court. The team is rated 113th in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 104 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Toledo will make a strong effort to get off as many field goals close to the basket as they can. The ball-club is 37th in the NCAA in ratio of near-proximity attempts to total field goal attempts. If you do allow them to get to the inside, they are undoubtedly capable of making you pay. Presently rated in the top-100 in near-proximity shooting percentage, they make roughly 61.9% of their attempts from short-distance vs. AO. If Toledo does have a weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's penchant for allowing too many easy buckets off of giveaways. The squad has a rating of 12.83 vs. AO in potential points allowed off of steals, which ranks 40th-worst in the college game.

Toledo is also a fairly decent team on the defensive end of the court. The team ranks 175th nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing about 102 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Toledo does a super job to deny opponents offensive rebounds and second chances. They have a rating of 11.37 vs. AO in potential points allowed off of second chances (ranked 11th in the country). Toledo also does a pretty solid job avoiding careless fouls and minimizing opponents' opportunities from the free throw line. With a defensive free throw attempt rate of 22.34 vs. AO, they are currently rated 29th in the country in that category. If Toledo does exhibit a noticeable weakness on the defensive end of the floor, it'd likely be the team's unwillingness to take risks in order to score fast points off of the opposition's turnovers. The squad only has a rating of 7.19 in potential points scored off of steals vs. AO, which ranks tenth-worst in the college game.

When playing on the road, Toledo performs somewhat worse than they normally do on their home court. The club is nationally ranked 319th in our site's away-from-home metric.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Sat 11/12/2016	@ Saint Joe's₁₅₇	L 69.61 - 72.13	L 76-77	0-1	102.82	103.55	▲ 0.73	102.39	100.45	▲ 1.94	▲ 2.67
Tue 11/15/2016	vs Youngstown St.₂₈₅	W 82.56 - 70.27	W 103-98 (OT)	1-1	112.75	101.36	▼ 11.39	99.89	107.03	▼ 7.14	▼ 18.53
Sat 11/19/2016	@ Wright State₁₆₅	L 71.86 - 73.77	W 82-78	2-1	104.92	113.03	▲ 8.11	103.38	103.19	▲ 0.19	▲ 8.30
Tue 11/22/2016	@ Mid Tennessee₄₅	L 61.50 - 74.30	L 70-80	2-2	96.80	93.74	▼ 3.06	110.99	122.37	▼ 11.38	▼ 14.44
Fri 11/25/2016	vs Evansville₁₄₈ *	W 69.63 - 69.62	W 83-79 (2OT)	3-2	102.95	100.27	▼ 2.68	102.19	95.44	▲ 6.75	▲ 4.07
Sat 11/26/2016	vs Mid Tennessee₄₅ *	L 62.89 - 72.87	L 70-73 (OT)	3-3	96.80	97.92	▲ 1.12	110.99	102.12	▲ 8.87	▲ 9.99
Sun 11/27/2016	vs UNC Wilmington₆₁ *	L 73.30 - 81.55	L 77-102	3-4	104.53	103.46	▼ 1.07	115.52	137.05	▼ 21.53	▼ 22.60
Sat 12/3/2016	vs Green Bay₂₀₁	W 79.32 - 72.31	L 77-78 (OT)	3-5	104.61	85.78	▼ 18.83	99.21	91.40	▲ 7.81	▼ 11.02
Wed 12/7/2016	vs Detroit Mercy₂₉₈	W 84.38 - 70.64	W 73-65	4-5	113.14	96.43	▼ 16.71	99.29	88.88	▲ 10.41	▼ 6.30
Sat 12/10/2016	@ Marshall₁₆₁	L 82.59 - 85.03	L 105-111 (OT)	4-6	110.15	129.61	▲ 19.46	108.74	120.15	▼ 11.41	▲ 8.05
Sat 12/17/2016	vs SE Louisiana₂₄₇	W 73.15 - 63.96	W 78-56	5-6	104.17	103.85	▼ 0.32	95.36	74.94	▲ 20.42	▲ 20.10
Tue 12/20/2016	vs Loyola-Chicago₈₉	L 68.92 - 70.17	W 74-70	6-6	101.73	108.23	▲ 6.50	107.16	105.16	▲ 2.00	▲ 8.50
Fri 12/30/2016	vs Ohio Christian	---	W 98-58	7-6	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Tue 1/3/2017	vs Buffalo₁₅₄	W 75.52 - 72.20	W 86-54	8-6	103.40	121.78	▲ 18.38	102.89	64.72	▲ 38.17	▲ 56.55
Sat 1/7/2017	vs Miami (OH)₂₅₂	W 74.69 - 64.96	W 91-76	9-6	105.05	130.62	▲ 25.57	95.31	109.79	▼ 14.48	▲ 11.09
Tue 1/10/2017	@ W. Michigan₁₆₉	L 71.41 - 73.12	L 74-90	9-7	105.74	113.33	▲ 7.59	104.07	135.88	▼ 31.81	▼ 24.22
Fri 1/13/2017	@ Cent. Michigan₂₃₃	W 84.88 - 81.77	L 88-96	9-8	116.66	112.11	▼ 4.55	107.78	118.04	▼ 10.26	▼ 14.81
Tue 1/17/2017	vs Bowling Green₂₄₆	W 76.60 - 67.35	W 85-73	10-8	106.42	109.05	▲ 2.63	97.64	96.50	▲ 1.14	▲ 3.77
Sat 1/21/2017	@ Kent State₁₅₉	L 70.39 - 72.70	L 61-85	10-9	104.44	92.05	▼ 12.39	103.18	126.60	▼ 23.42	▼ 35.81
Tue 1/24/2017	@ Ohio₁₀₅	L 69.28 - 75.45	W 79-76	11-9	100.57	121.91	▲ 21.34	104.64	112.94	▼ 8.30	▲ 13.04
Sat 1/28/2017	vs N. Illinois₂₀₆	W 71.57 - 64.99	L 72-74	11-10	103.73	96.41	▼ 7.32	97.61	100.88	▼ 3.27	▼ 10.59
Tue 1/31/2017	@ Ball State₁₇₅	L 73.15 - 74.42	L 80-81	11-11	105.07	107.48	▲ 2.41	102.50	104.36	▼ 1.86	▲ 0.55
Sat 2/4/2017	@ Bowling Green₂₄₆	W 73.58 - 70.32	L 100-104 (2OT)	11-12	106.42	117.60	▲ 11.18	97.64	114.97	▼ 17.33	▼ 6.15
Tue 2/7/2017	vs E. Michigan₁₅₂	W 73.50 - 70.22	W 73-57	12-12	104.13	112.54	▲ 8.41	103.37	90.55	▲ 12.82	▲ 21.23
Sat 2/11/2017	vs Kent State₁₅₉	W 73.33 - 69.68	W 78-58	13-12	104.44	130.51	▲ 26.07	103.18	95.20	▲ 7.98	▲ 34.05
Tue 2/14/2017	@ Akron₁₁₁	L 69.39 - 74.66	L 65-71	13-13	106.00	94.86	▼ 11.14	109.25	102.20	▲ 7.05	▼ 4.09
Sat 2/18/2017	@ N. Illinois₂₀₆	W 68.68 - 67.89	W 88-80 (OT)	14-13	103.73	122.55	▲ 18.82	97.61	116.12	▼ 18.51	▲ 0.31
Tue 2/21/2017	vs W. Michigan₁₆₉	W 74.36 - 70.12	L 56-61 (OT)	14-14	105.74	73.17	▼ 32.57	104.07	78.78	▲ 25.29	▼ 7.28
Fri 2/24/2017	vs Cent. Michigan₂₃₃	W 88.06 - 78.37	W 87-66	15-14	116.66	107.93	▼ 8.73	107.78	87.93	▲ 19.85	▲ 11.12
Tue 2/28/2017	vs Ball State₁₇₅	W 76.19 - 71.29	L 74-82	15-15	105.07	97.78	▼ 7.29	102.50	113.33	▼ 10.83	▼ 18.12
Fri 3/3/2017	@ E. Michigan₁₅₂	L 70.55 - 73.26	W 60-56	16-15	104.13	93.12	▼ 11.01	103.37	83.94	▲ 19.43	▲ 8.42
Mon 3/6/2017	vs Bowling Green₂₄₆	W 76.60 - 67.35	W 77-62	17-15	106.42	111.34	▲ 4.92	97.64	76.35	▲ 21.29	▲ 26.21
Thu 3/9/2017	vs Ohio₁₀₅ *	L 70.78 - 73.93	L 66-67	17-16	100.57	98.51	▼ 2.06	104.64	100.00	▲ 4.64	▲ 2.58
Wed 3/15/2017	@ G. Washington₁₂₈	L 68.67 - 72.26	L 69-73	17-17	105.17	110.03	▲ 4.86	106.04	110.09	▼ 4.05	▲ 0.81
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Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	Toledo is typically worse vs. teams that typically allow more than a fair share of breakaway opportunities. Against foes that have a potential point rate allowed off steals vs. AO greater than 11.24, Toledo performs above their norm 29% of the time. Against the remaining opposition, the team performs above average 75% of the time.
	When facing teams that allow a greater number of field goal opportunities, Toledo often performs worse than normal. Toledo is more efficient than usual 27% of the time when facing teams that have a defensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO greater than 81.68. In their other contests, Toledo performs better than the norm 64% of the time.
	Toledo does worse vs. clubs that do not defend well on the perimeter. When playing squads that have a defensive three-point field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 35.39%, Toledo performs above average 37% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 71% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox