Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2016-17 UMBC 21-13 (0.618) | America East

All-Play Percentage: 0.440 (197^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.371 (303^rd)	Record Quality: 0.012 (163^rd)	Avg. Season Rank: 187.24 (183^rd)
Pace: 72.17 (68^th)	Momentum: -1.08 (220^th)	Off. Momentum: -0.42 (225^th)	Def. Momentum: -0.67 (184^th)
Consistency: -7.63 (34^th)	Res. Consistency: -10.28 (104^th)	Away From Home: 1.77 (18^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: -1.41 (217^th)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 3, 2017. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

104.17

26.06

74.86

81.20

44.49

33.09

37.51

18.54

40.22

29.57

54.98

13.13

10.77

4.61

40.75

22.84

36.42

2.04

RANK:

114^th

225^th

49^th

204^th

149^th

72^nd

60^th

316^th

29^th

110^th

295^th

41^st

323^rd

328^th

64^th

314^th

109^th

227^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

108.49

28.64

81.61

47.22

29.14

36.70

21.60

38.58

30.86

63.20

9.09

13.93

7.40

35.71

26.47

37.82

1.98

RANK:

288^th

214^th

164^th

298^th

166^th

250^th

98^th

263^rd

276^th

265^th

43^rd

138^th

239^th

157^th

93^rd

276^th

251^st

ANALYSIS:
Regardless of what the win percentage says, UMBC isn't a very good team this year. Haslametrics has them ranked 197th overall (out of 351) in All-Play Percentage, and the team holds a record of 21-13. They are also ranked by this site as the #4 team (out of nine) in the America East (average ranking 226.4).

Based on the data, UMBC will likely find more success on offense than on defense. Scoring about 104 points for every 100 possessions vs. AO, they currently occupy the #114 slot in the rankings for offensive efficiency. UMBC has a keen ability to drain field goals between the three-point line and the low post. The squad is ranked 29th nationally in mid-range field goal percentage, making about 40.2% of their attempts from those locations vs. AO. However, even with their high conversion rate on mid-range attempts, this team usually settles for shots from other spots on the floor. Only about 22.8% of their overall attempts vs. AO are from those in-between locations. UMBC also does a pretty good job of protecting the ball when they have possession and not allowing quick and easy baskets off of their own turnovers. The team's rating vs. AO for potential breakaway points allowed off of steals is 9.09, which ranks #43 in the country. If UMBC does have a glaring weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's difficulties obtaining and converting second-chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. The squad has a second-chance conversion percentage of just 4.6% vs. AO, which ranks 24th-worst in the nation.

Unfortunately, UMBC is not even remotely close to being as good on defense as they are on offense. The team is ranked 288th in defensive efficiency, allowing about 108 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. UMBC allows opponents to make good on a fair number of their overall field goal attempts. The ball-club ranks #298 nationally in field goal percentage allowed, as AO will convert approximately 47.2% of their total attempts from the floor. If UMBC does have a bright spot on defense, it would have to be their willingness to take risks in order to score fast points off of steals. The team has a solid rating of 13.13 in potential points scored off of steals vs. AO, which ranks 41st-best in college basketball.

UMBC is one of the more consistent teams in Division I (presently ranked 34th in consistency), so forecasting the outcomes of their future contests tends to be easier than the norm. When playing on the road, UMBC has played their best basketball this season. The team is currently ranked 18th in the country in the away-from-home metric our site tracks.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Fri 11/11/2016	vs Hood	---	W 92-61	1-0	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Sun 11/13/2016	@ UMES₃₁₇	W 80.84 - 75.01	W 77-73	2-0	114.08	112.12	▼ 1.96	101.95	102.32	▼ 0.37	▼ 2.33
Wed 11/16/2016	vs Delaware State₃₃₆	W 80.98 - 65.20	W 90-68	3-0	113.21	123.18	▲ 9.97	95.35	95.76	▼ 0.41	▲ 9.56
Sat 11/19/2016	vs Kennesaw State₂₆₆	W 83.43 - 75.34	W 93-85	4-0	111.49	112.60	▲ 1.11	104.79	107.15	▼ 2.36	▼ 1.25
Wed 11/23/2016	@ Navy₂₁₆	L 70.60 - 71.83	L 66-78	4-1	105.17	102.22	▼ 2.95	102.62	117.78	▼ 15.16	▼ 18.11
Wed 11/30/2016	@ Duquesne₂₁₉	L 77.41 - 78.87	W 81-72	5-1	107.45	121.33	▲ 13.88	105.02	105.25	▼ 0.23	▲ 13.65
Sat 12/3/2016	vs Messiah	---	W 98-59	6-1	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Wed 12/7/2016	@ Mt. St. Mary's₂₁₅	L 72.81 - 74.49	W 78-70	7-1	103.78	110.55	▲ 6.77	101.80	93.67	▲ 8.13	▲ 14.90
Sat 12/10/2016	@ Richmond₈₄	L 71.62 - 83.48	L 75-78	7-2	101.09	106.38	▲ 5.29	113.17	107.64	▲ 5.53	▲ 10.82
Sat 12/17/2016	vs Towson₁₃₈	L 75.68 - 75.90	L 72-73	7-3	102.78	100.64	▼ 2.14	107.55	105.03	▲ 2.52	▲ 0.38
Mon 12/19/2016	vs The Citadel₂₉₁	W 97.71 - 86.67	W 120-111 (2OT)	8-3	115.36	102.38	▼ 12.98	106.62	106.81	▼ 0.19	▼ 13.17
Fri 12/23/2016	@ JMU₂₂₁	L 69.93 - 71.25	W 62-61	9-3	103.85	105.55	▲ 1.70	101.40	101.17	▲ 0.23	▲ 1.93
Wed 12/28/2016	@ Virginia Tech₅₀	L 71.38 - 88.16	L 70-87	9-4	101.90	83.10	▼ 18.80	120.71	117.19	▲ 3.52	▼ 15.28
Thu 1/5/2017	vs Binghamton₃₁₃	W 79.60 - 68.01	W 85-71	10-4	111.72	112.07	▲ 0.35	99.17	90.79	▲ 8.38	▲ 8.73
Sun 1/8/2017	vs Maine₃₃₃	W 82.14 - 66.38	W 75-64	11-4	111.99	106.74	▼ 5.25	93.95	88.78	▲ 5.17	▼ 0.08
Wed 1/11/2017	@ Hartford₃₃₅	W 80.69 - 70.72	W 84-68	12-4	113.02	119.96	▲ 6.94	95.12	76.82	▲ 18.30	▲ 25.24
Fri 1/13/2017	@ Vermont₆₄	L 66.84 - 81.08	L 72-81	12-5	98.96	106.56	▲ 7.60	114.27	113.50	▲ 0.77	▲ 8.37
Mon 1/16/2017	vs Albany₁₁₈	L 73.25 - 74.87	L 50-77	12-6	104.42	65.87	▼ 38.55	110.26	131.38	▼ 21.12	▼ 59.67
Sun 1/22/2017	@ UMass Lowell₂₈₇	W 84.96 - 81.84	W 102-86	13-6	115.09	140.24	▲ 25.15	106.29	111.87	▼ 5.58	▲ 19.57
Wed 1/25/2017	@ Stony Brook₂₀₅	L 73.10 - 75.34	L 73-83	13-7	106.62	90.37	▼ 16.25	104.53	101.73	▲ 2.80	▼ 13.45
Sat 1/28/2017	vs UNH₁₈₆	W 74.69 - 72.37	W 105-103 (2OT)	14-7	105.48	115.97	▲ 10.49	106.04	118.63	▼ 12.59	▼ 2.10
Wed 2/1/2017	@ Binghamton₃₁₃	W 76.46 - 71.06	W 92-74	15-7	111.72	143.88	▲ 32.16	99.17	102.78	▼ 3.61	▲ 28.55
Sat 2/4/2017	@ Maine₃₃₃	W 78.92 - 69.38	W 83-71	16-7	111.99	119.19	▲ 7.20	93.95	98.17	▼ 4.22	▲ 2.98
Thu 2/9/2017	vs Hartford₃₃₅	W 83.96 - 67.59	L 77-84	16-8	113.02	97.78	▼ 15.24	95.12	109.91	▼ 14.79	▼ 30.03
Sun 2/12/2017	vs Vermont₆₄	L 69.93 - 78.02	L 74-77	16-9	98.96	96.45	▼ 2.51	114.27	103.53	▲ 10.74	▲ 8.23
Wed 2/15/2017	@ Albany₁₁₈	L 70.17 - 78.00	L 69-78	16-10	104.42	111.74	▲ 7.32	110.26	119.66	▼ 9.40	▼ 2.08
Sat 2/18/2017	vs UMass Lowell₂₈₇	W 88.33 - 78.50	W 108-102	17-10	115.09	138.04	▲ 22.95	106.29	132.98	▼ 26.69	▼ 3.74
Wed 2/22/2017	vs Stony Brook₂₀₅	W 76.24 - 72.24	W 65-52	18-10	106.62	102.62	▼ 4.00	104.53	86.09	▲ 18.44	▲ 14.44
Sat 2/25/2017	@ UNH₁₈₆	L 71.59 - 75.45	L 90-94 (2OT)	18-11	105.48	95.55	▼ 9.93	106.04	88.69	▲ 17.35	▲ 7.42
Wed 3/1/2017	@ UNH₁₈₆	L 71.59 - 75.45	L 65-74	18-12	105.48	97.60	▼ 7.88	106.04	111.85	▼ 5.81	▼ 13.69
Wed 3/15/2017	vs Fairfield₂₂₀	W 79.15 - 74.18	W 88-83	19-12	105.89	112.07	▲ 6.18	103.40	111.43	▼ 8.03	▼ 1.85
Sat 3/18/2017	vs St. Francis (PA)₂₅₀	W 82.11 - 75.25	W 87-79	20-12	108.63	118.62	▲ 9.99	103.59	110.43	▼ 6.84	▲ 3.15
Sun 3/26/2017	vs Liberty₂₀₉	W 71.96 - 67.83	W 80-68	21-12	103.94	119.00	▲ 15.06	102.17	105.25	▼ 3.08	▲ 11.98
Wed 3/29/2017	vs Texas A&M-CC₁₈₉	W 77.90 - 75.26	L 61-79	21-13	104.87	80.22	▼ 24.65	105.54	104.92	▲ 0.62	▼ 24.03
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---

Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	When facing teams that tend to get off more shots, UMBC often performs worse than normal. UMBC is more efficient than usual 27% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO greater than 82.20. In their other contests, UMBC performs better than the norm 71% of the time.
	UMBC does worse vs. clubs that are typically efficient on offense. When playing squads that have an offensive efficiency rating vs. AO greater than 96.06, UMBC performs above average 43% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 82% of the time.
	UMBC performs worse against squads that convert well from the charity stripe. When facing teams that have an adjusted free throw percentage vs. AO greater than 72.71%, UMBC is more efficient than normal 30% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 68% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox