Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2023-24 UCF 17-16 (0.515) | Big 12

All-Play Percentage: 0.814 (68^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.648 (75^th)	Record Quality: 0.143 (102^nd)	Avg. Season Rank: 72.41 (68^th)
Pace: 69.03 (100^th)	Momentum: 1.12 (119^th)	Off. Momentum: 2.84 (44^th)	Def. Momentum: -1.72 (254^th)
Consistency: -10.60 (327^th)	Res. Consistency: -14.23 (306^th)	Away From Home: -2.47 (345^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: -2.46 (297^th)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 8, 2024. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

105.93

30.54

69.31

86.32

43.30

30.02

33.30

22.68

37.31

33.62

56.28

16.58

17.07

7.07

34.78

26.28

38.95

1.96

RANK:

161^st

27^th

286^th

133^rd

209^th

238^th

230^th

172^nd

251^st

73^rd

220^th

12^th

32^nd

44^th

253^rd

184^th

86^th

85^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

94.41

29.64

78.08

40.15

29.97

33.30

19.96

36.59

28.15

49.99

10.00

8.73

3.27

38.38

25.57

36.05

2.02

RANK:

14^th

304^th

6^th

24^th

104^th

115^th

60^th

76^th

71^st

7^th

71^st

2^nd

248^th

142^nd

170^th

138^th

ANALYSIS:
Despite what their win percentage might indicate, UCF is a good team that can cause more than enough trouble for most opponents. Haslametrics has them ranked 68th overall (out of 362) in All-Play Percentage, and the team holds a record of 17-16. Of the 14 schools in the Big 12 (average ranking 44.9), they're currently ranked as our #11 team in the conference.

UCF has been a force on the defensive end of the court. The team is rated 14th in defensive efficiency and allows fewer than 95 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. UCF does a super job to deny opponents offensive rebounds and second chances. They have a rating of 8.73 vs. AO in potential points allowed off of second chances (ranked second in the country), and they allow AO to convert just 3.3% of their second-chance opportunities (ranked second) as well. UCF also has extremely pesky defenders that ceaselessly attempt to deny opponents ample opportunity to shoot. The club is ranked sixth in Division I in defensive field goal attempt rate with a rating of 78.08 vs. AO. UCF lastly does tremendous work shutting down the opposition from the inside. They are ranked seventh in the country in defensive near-proximity percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 50.0% of their attempts from close-up.

Though they're not quite as efficient offensively as they are defensively, UCF still does OK when they have possession of the ball. The team ranks 161st nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring about 106 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. UCF does a really good job to acquire opportunities from the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of 30.54 vs. AO, they are ranked 27th in the nation at getting to the charity stripe. Unfortunately, they don't convert a ton of their free throws and make just 69.3% of their attempts. UCF has also established itself as a team that cleans the offensive glass quite well. Against AO, the squad has a rating of 17.07 in potential points scored off of second chances (ranked 32nd in the NCAA), and they convert 7.1% of their second-chance opportunities (ranked 44th) as well.

UCF has been one of the more erratic teams in NCAA basketball this year (presently ranked 327th in the country in consistency), which makes forecasting the outcomes of their upcoming games tougher than most. On the road, UCF performs noticeably worse than they do at home. The team is currently ranked 345th in the country in the away-from-home metric we track.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Mon 11/6/2023	vs FIU₂₉₄	W 81.70 - 60.85	W 85-62	1-0	111.05	101.69	▼ 9.36	87.36	74.60	▲ 12.76	▲ 3.40
Fri 11/10/2023	@ Miami₈₄	L 70.42 - 71.80	L 72-88	1-1	103.12	94.43	▼ 8.69	100.37	109.46	▼ 9.09	▼ 17.78
Thu 11/16/2023	vs CSU Fullerton₂₂₆	W 74.40 - 58.75	W 72-44	2-1	105.89	102.73	▼ 3.16	88.92	65.04	▲ 23.88	▲ 20.72
Sun 11/19/2023	vs South Dakota St.₁₄₁ *	W 74.13 - 66.85	W 83-80	3-1	106.72	116.76	▲ 10.04	96.61	112.54	▼ 15.93	▼ 5.89
Mon 11/20/2023	vs Charlotte₁₁₈ *	W 67.30 - 62.42	W 74-71 (OT)	4-1	103.36	98.01	▼ 5.35	96.22	94.04	▲ 2.18	▼ 3.17
Sun 11/26/2023	vs Stetson₂₂₅	W 78.58 - 62.99	L 82-85	4-2	113.19	105.36	▼ 7.83	95.78	112.93	▼ 17.15	▼ 24.98
Sat 12/2/2023	vs Lipscomb₁₆₄	W 80.10 - 67.59	W 72-57	5-2	110.85	98.87	▼ 11.98	99.41	79.68	▲ 19.73	▲ 7.75
Wed 12/6/2023	vs Jacksonville₂₉₁	W 76.37 - 56.97	W 94-52	6-2	109.47	139.32	▲ 29.85	87.00	60.68	▲ 26.32	▲ 56.17
Sun 12/10/2023	vs Ole Miss₉₃	W 73.97 - 67.92	L 68-70	6-3	104.94	94.61	▼ 10.33	101.55	102.54	▼ 0.99	▼ 11.32
Mon 12/18/2023	vs Maine₂₅₁	W 72.18 - 55.51	W 74-51	7-3	104.26	113.46	▲ 9.20	84.96	55.60	▲ 29.36	▲ 38.56
Thu 12/21/2023	vs Florida A&M₃₅₁	W 81.41 - 54.19	W 69-56	8-3	114.65	101.61	▼ 13.04	80.90	84.89	▼ 3.99	▼ 17.03
Fri 12/29/2023	vs Bethune-Cookman₃₁₃	W 79.79 - 58.08	W 98-54	9-3	109.87	118.78	▲ 8.91	85.31	73.03	▲ 12.28	▲ 21.19
Sat 1/6/2024	@ Kansas State₇₇	L 65.46 - 67.47	L 52-77	9-4	97.40	59.35	▼ 38.05	96.10	128.57	▼ 32.47	▼ 70.52
Wed 1/10/2024	vs Kansas₂₅	L 68.88 - 70.45	W 65-60	10-4	95.88	99.03	▲ 3.15	102.98	96.29	▲ 6.69	▲ 9.84
Sat 1/13/2024	vs BYU₁₅	L 70.68 - 74.91	L 58-63	10-5	97.53	80.32	▼ 17.21	109.00	93.84	▲ 15.16	▼ 2.05
Wed 1/17/2024	@ Texas₂₆	L 65.85 - 73.90	W 77-71	11-5	97.20	115.77	▲ 18.57	104.78	103.43	▲ 1.35	▲ 19.92
Sat 1/20/2024	@ Houston₂	L 54.90 - 71.26	L 42-57	11-6	86.27	53.48	▼ 32.79	106.10	91.91	▲ 14.19	▼ 18.60
Tue 1/23/2024	vs West Virginia₁₃₅	W 75.26 - 65.25	W 72-59	12-6	105.10	98.91	▼ 6.19	96.59	86.12	▲ 10.47	▲ 4.28
Sat 1/27/2024	@ Cincinnati₃₅	L 64.39 - 71.24	L 57-68	12-7	96.13	94.06	▼ 2.07	101.79	105.66	▼ 3.87	▼ 5.94
Wed 1/31/2024	vs Baylor₁₆	L 68.04 - 71.66	L 69-77	12-8	98.86	106.99	▲ 8.13	109.75	126.23	▼ 16.48	▼ 8.35
Sat 2/3/2024	vs Oklahoma₃₈	L 68.46 - 68.83	W 74-63	13-8	96.77	107.91	▲ 11.14	103.28	96.38	▲ 6.90	▲ 18.04
Sat 2/10/2024	@ Texas Tech₄₀	L 66.30 - 73.23	L 59-66	13-9	99.38	91.60	▼ 7.78	105.41	102.23	▲ 3.18	▼ 4.60
Tue 2/13/2024	@ BYU₁₅	L 67.25 - 78.44	L 88-90	13-10	97.53	115.00	▲ 17.47	109.00	113.97	▼ 4.97	▲ 12.50
Sat 2/17/2024	vs Cincinnati₃₅	L 67.72 - 67.95	L 74-76	13-11	96.13	103.18	▲ 7.05	101.79	112.28	▼ 10.49	▼ 3.44
Tue 2/20/2024	@ West Virginia₁₃₅	W 71.86 - 68.63	L 67-77	13-12	105.10	88.25	▼ 16.85	96.59	105.77	▼ 9.18	▼ 26.03
Sat 2/24/2024	vs Texas Tech₄₀	L 69.62 - 69.77	W 75-61	14-12	99.38	106.69	▲ 7.31	105.41	86.91	▲ 18.50	▲ 25.81
Wed 2/28/2024	@ Oklahoma State₁₁₃	W 69.21 - 67.65	W 77-71	15-12	103.39	108.74	▲ 5.35	96.29	96.07	▲ 0.22	▲ 5.57
Sat 3/2/2024	vs Iowa State₆	L 62.62 - 69.96	L 52-60	15-13	88.01	72.83	▼ 15.18	104.18	90.45	▲ 13.73	▼ 1.45
Wed 3/6/2024	vs Houston₂	L 58.07 - 68.09	L 59-67	15-14	86.27	91.11	▲ 4.84	106.10	110.17	▼ 4.07	▲ 0.77
Sat 3/9/2024	@ TCU₃₂	L 67.37 - 74.81	W 79-77	16-14	97.95	116.62	▲ 18.67	103.70	109.06	▼ 5.36	▲ 13.31
Tue 3/12/2024	vs Oklahoma State₁₁₃ *	W 70.87 - 65.98	W 77-62	17-14	103.39	114.04	▲ 10.65	96.29	66.67	▲ 29.62	▲ 40.27
Wed 3/13/2024	vs BYU₁₅ *	L 68.96 - 76.67	L 73-87	17-15	97.53	105.80	▲ 8.27	109.00	128.89	▼ 19.89	▼ 11.62
Tue 3/19/2024	vs USF₉₈	W 73.12 - 66.68	L 77-83	17-16	102.58	94.83	▼ 7.75	98.66	114.32	▼ 15.66	▼ 23.41
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Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	When facing teams that allow opponents to shoot well from the field, UCF often performs better than normal. UCF is more efficient than usual 73% of the time when facing teams that have a defensive field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 43.32%. In their other contests, UCF performs better than the norm 32% of the time.
	UCF does better vs. clubs that do not defend well on the perimeter. When playing squads that have a defensive three-point field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 32.87%, UCF performs above average 65% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 25% of the time.
	UCF performs better against squads that have trouble defending the mid-range shot. When facing teams that have a defensive mid-range field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 36.26%, UCF is more efficient than normal 60% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 23% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox