Automated Team Capsule for 2016-17 UCF24-12 (0.667) | American
All-Play Percentage: 0.806 (69th)
Schedule Strength: 0.598 (90th)
Record Quality: 0.252 (58th)
Avg. Season Rank: 70.46 (68th)
Pace: 68.07 (284th)
Momentum: 0.98 (128th)
Off. Momentum: 2.49 (68th)
Def. Momentum: -1.51 (237th)
Consistency: -9.86 (286th)
Res. Consistency: -13.35 (299th)
Away From Home: -1.82 (314th)
Paper Tiger Factor: -0.12 (106th)
NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category. Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement. Includes games through April 3, 2017. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.
OFFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
101.74
68.19
30.79
65.79
77.90
35.59
45.68
28.33
10.32
36.42
21.70
7.61
35.07
27.87
17.66
63.36
6.85
15.02
9.19
36.36
27.86
35.78
2.01
RANK:
161st
280th
60th
306th
331st
180th
94th
223rd
183rd
116th
235th
256th
241st
201st
123rd
67th
347th
147th
16th
171st
204th
133rd
167th
DEFENSE
Eff
Upc
FTAR
FT%
FGAR
FGMR
FG%
3PAR
3PMR
3P%
MRAR
MRMR
MR%
NPAR
NPMR
NP%
PPSt
PPSC
SCC%
%3PA
%MRA
%NPA
Prox
RATING:
92.04
67.96
19.50
--
89.00
33.33
37.45
35.27
11.47
32.52
29.12
9.55
32.78
24.61
12.32
50.06
11.32
11.76
3.77
39.63
32.72
27.65
2.12
RANK:
23rd
66th
4th
--
351st
52nd
2nd
336th
277th
47th
333rd
268th
36th
42nd
7th
4th
220th
18th
4th
301st
300th
11th
15th
ANALYSIS: While this site doesn't quite consider them to be in the national title hunt, UCF has the potential to be a formidable opponent for many in Division I. They have a record of 24-12 and are ranked 69th overall (out of 351) in the latest Haslametrics ratings. They are also ranked by this site as the #4 team (out of 11) in the AAC (average ranking 117.5).
UCF is one of the most menacing defensive teams in the country. Ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency, they will allow fewer than 93 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. UCF will put a good dent in the shooting percentages of several opponents, considering the team ranks in the top-50 in each of the four major defensive shooting categories. They allow AO to make just 32.5% of their three-pointers (47th in the nation), 32.8% of their mid-range shots (36th), 50.1% of their near-proximity attempts (fourth), and 37.5% of their total shots from the field (second). UCF is also a superior unit when it comes to preventing opponents from getting to the foul line. With a defensive free throw attempt rate of 19.50 vs. AO, they are currently rated fourth in the country in that category. UCF lastly does a fantastic job to prevent opposing teams from capitalizing on chances from offensive rebounds. The squad allows AO to convert only 3.8% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked fourth in the NCAA), and with a rating of 11.76, they're 18th in potential points allowed off of the offensive glass as well. If UCF does exhibit a noticeable weakness on the defensive end of the floor, it'd likely be the team's propensity to allow too many shot attempts per trip. The squad has a rating of 89.00 in defensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO, which ranks worst in college basketball.
Though they're not quite as efficient offensively as they are defensively, UCF still does OK when they have possession of the ball. The team ranks 161st nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring about 102 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. UCF does an outstanding job finishing any scoring chances they obtain from offensive rebounds. Against AO, the team successfully converts 9.2% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 16th nationally). UCF also acquires a fair amount of chances from the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of 30.79 vs. AO, they are ranked 60th in the nation at getting to the charity stripe. Unfortunately, they don't convert a ton of their free throws and make just 65.8% of their attempts. If UCF does have a glaring weakness offensively, it would have to be the team's difficulties in getting off a sufficient number of shots each possession. The squad has a field goal attempt rate of just 77.90 vs. AO, which ranks 21st-worst in college basketball.
When playing on the road, UCF performs somewhat worse than they normally do on their home court. The club is nationally ranked 314th in our site's away-from-home metric.
Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location. Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.
CURIOUS TRENDS:
When playing teams that typically allow more than a fair share of breakaway opportunities, UCF usually performs worse than average. UCF is more efficient than normal 17% of the time when facing clubs that have a potential point rate allowed off steals vs. AO greater than 10.97. In all other contests, UCF performs better than average 63% of the time.
UCF is typically worse vs. teams that allow a greater number of field goal opportunities. Against foes that have a defensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO greater than 83.84, UCF performs above their norm 17% of the time. Against the remaining opposition, the team performs above average 63% of the time.
When facing teams that do a nice job converting inside the paint, UCF often performs better than normal. UCF is more efficient than usual 73% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive near-proximity field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 63.75%. In their other contests, UCF performs better than the norm 36% of the time.
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