Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2015-16 UCF 12-18 (0.400) | American

All-Play Percentage: 0.491 (179^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.577 (110^th)	Record Quality: -0.056 (196^th)	Avg. Season Rank: 159.75 (161^st)
Pace: 69.42 (190^th)	Momentum: -3.03 (305^th)	Off. Momentum: -3.83 (344^th)	Def. Momentum: 0.80 (96^th)
Consistency: -9.93 (294^th)	Res. Consistency: -12.00 (212^th)	Away From Home: 0.86 (90^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: -4.18 (338^th)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 4, 2016. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

98.64

28.90

69.14

78.43

43.99

29.71

32.51

19.60

33.88

29.11

62.52

8.76

13.80

7.25

37.88

24.99

37.12

2.01

RANK:

210^th

158^th

201^st

315^th

146^th

279^th

307^th

256^th

158^th

82^nd

294^th

234^th

118^th

93^rd

293^rd

102^nd

192^nd

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

100.90

23.54

89.52

41.38

32.33

32.78

23.43

34.56

33.76

54.34

15.05

14.93

5.98

36.11

26.18

37.71

1.98

RANK:

142^nd

34^th

349^th

66^th

312^th

58^th

156^th

113^th

319^th

43^rd

348^th

174^th

98^th

218^th

72^nd

254^th

217^th

ANALYSIS:
If you see UCF on the schedule, you will likely get one of the average to below-average teams in college hoops. Haslametrics has them ranked 179th overall (out of 351) in All-Play Percentage, and the team holds a record of 12-18. Of the 11 schools in the AAC (average ranking 106.6), they're currently ranked as our #9 team in the conference.

UCF will likely call on their defense to win a majority of their games. The team is ranked 142nd in defensive efficiency and allows fewer than 101 points for every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. UCF does a pretty solid job avoiding careless fouls and minimizing opponents' opportunities from the free throw line. With a defensive free throw attempt rate of 23.54 vs. AO, they are currently rated 34th in the country in that category. UCF has also done a really good job this year to prevent opponents from making shots from the inside. They are ranked 43rd in the country in defensive near-proximity percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 54.3% of their attempts from close-up. If UCF does exhibit a noticeable weakness on the defensive end of the floor, it'd likely be the team's propensity to allow too many shot attempts per trip. The squad has a rating of 89.52 in defensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO, which ranks third-worst in college basketball.

UCF doesn't perform as well offensively as they do defensively. The team is ranked 210th in offensive efficiency, scoring about 99 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. UCF tends to be very careless with the ball and allows far too many breakaway opportunities off of their own turnovers. The team's rating for potential breakaway points allowed off of steals vs. AO is 15.05, which ranks fourth from the bottom in D1. UCF is also one of the more inferior teams in the college game when it comes to maximizing opportunities to score on offense. The team is nationally ranked 315th in offensive field goal attempt rate with a rating of only 78.43 vs. AO.

UCF has recently performed below their norm from an efficiency standpoint. The team is currently ranked 305th in the country in positive momentum.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Sat 11/14/2015	@ Davidson₁₀₇	L 70.39 - 80.26	L 85-90	0-1	101.30	105.33	▲ 4.03	109.83	105.52	▲ 4.31	▲ 8.34
Wed 11/18/2015	vs UC Irvine₇₉	L 63.79 - 68.16	L 60-61 (OT)	0-2	91.04	84.96	▼ 6.08	102.83	89.48	▲ 13.35	▲ 7.27
Sat 11/21/2015	vs UNCG₂₀₄	W 71.22 - 65.48	W 65-54	1-2	100.59	94.01	▼ 6.58	97.84	80.19	▲ 17.65	▲ 11.07
Sat 11/28/2015	@ Miami (OH)₂₄₁	W 63.47 - 63.25	L 63-64	1-3	98.43	98.37	▼ 0.06	93.28	95.54	▼ 2.26	▼ 2.32
Wed 12/2/2015	@ Stetson₂₈₄	W 75.49 - 71.92	W 94-85	2-3	108.20	135.83	▲ 27.63	98.05	118.17	▼ 20.12	▲ 7.51
Sat 12/5/2015	vs UIC₃₃₂	W 75.95 - 59.96	W 88-58	3-3	102.18	119.50	▲ 17.32	86.03	81.49	▲ 4.54	▲ 21.86
Tue 12/8/2015	vs UMass₁₅₀	W 71.40 - 69.32	W 67-63	4-3	97.05	92.80	▼ 4.25	100.36	94.22	▲ 6.14	▲ 1.89
Sat 12/12/2015	vs FAU₂₉₂	W 71.84 - 60.31	W 75-61	5-3	100.73	113.21	▲ 12.48	90.44	91.44	▼ 1.00	▲ 11.48
Sat 12/19/2015	@ Detroit Mercy₁₈₁	L 75.50 - 79.60	L 89-95	5-4	104.87	108.87	▲ 4.00	104.78	110.18	▼ 5.40	▼ 1.40
Tue 12/22/2015	vs Bethune-Cookman₃₁₀	W 75.02 - 61.77	W 101-96 (OT)	6-4	107.01	122.46	▲ 15.45	93.58	132.15	▼ 38.57	▼ 23.12
Tue 12/29/2015	vs G. Washington₃₈	L 65.17 - 73.78	L 50-67	6-5	92.97	69.81	▼ 23.16	112.01	117.46	▼ 5.45	▼ 28.61
Sat 1/2/2016	@ ECU₁₇₀	L 67.07 - 71.33	W 71-68	7-5	99.83	100.18	▲ 0.35	100.54	87.75	▲ 12.79	▲ 13.14
Wed 1/6/2016	vs USF₂₄₇	W 69.94 - 62.09	W 75-64	8-5	99.84	112.47	▲ 12.63	94.43	101.38	▼ 6.95	▲ 5.68
Sun 1/10/2016	@ SMU₁₉	L 60.23 - 79.52	L 73-88	8-6	92.47	99.84	▲ 7.37	115.51	126.31	▼ 10.80	▼ 3.43
Sat 1/16/2016	vs ECU₁₇₀	W 70.95 - 67.41	W 89-69	9-6	99.83	152.40	▲ 52.57	100.54	87.70	▲ 12.84	▲ 65.41
Wed 1/20/2016	@ USF₂₄₇	W 66.11 - 65.80	W 64-54	10-6	99.84	99.79	▼ 0.05	94.43	76.45	▲ 17.98	▲ 17.93
Sun 1/24/2016	@ Tulsa₆₄	L 62.99 - 76.57	L 60-75	10-7	93.22	81.71	▼ 11.51	106.57	100.11	▲ 6.46	▼ 5.05
Tue 1/26/2016	vs Memphis₇₅	L 69.91 - 74.75	L 86-97	10-8	92.73	109.70	▲ 16.97	105.11	128.93	▼ 23.82	▼ 6.85
Sun 1/31/2016	vs UConn₃₃	L 61.74 - 70.55	L 41-67	10-9	89.58	53.22	▼ 36.36	108.40	101.13	▲ 7.27	▼ 29.09
Thu 2/4/2016	@ Tulane₂₀₃	L 64.56 - 66.69	W 70-62	11-9	96.60	112.29	▲ 15.69	94.21	95.50	▼ 1.29	▲ 14.40
Sat 2/6/2016	vs Temple₈₉	L 64.50 - 67.80	L 60-62	11-10	93.17	86.63	▼ 6.54	103.61	96.86	▲ 6.75	▲ 0.21
Tue 2/9/2016	vs Cincinnati₂₉	L 60.85 - 70.11	L 51-69	11-11	88.82	71.22	▼ 17.60	107.86	109.48	▼ 1.62	▼ 19.22
Sat 2/13/2016	@ Houston₆₅	L 64.28 - 77.08	L 58-82	11-12	97.94	89.12	▼ 8.82	111.08	115.73	▼ 4.65	▼ 13.47
Wed 2/17/2016	@ Memphis₇₅	L 65.82 - 78.91	L 56-73	11-13	92.73	70.06	▼ 22.67	105.11	92.73	▲ 12.38	▼ 10.29
Sun 2/21/2016	vs Tulsa₆₄	L 66.90 - 72.68	L 67-75	11-14	93.22	94.18	▲ 0.96	106.57	113.21	▼ 6.64	▼ 5.68
Wed 2/24/2016	vs Houston₆₅	L 68.07 - 73.22	L 61-88	11-15	97.94	69.63	▼ 28.31	111.08	136.25	▼ 25.17	▼ 53.48
Sat 2/27/2016	@ Temple₈₉	L 60.73 - 71.54	L 61-63	11-16	93.17	91.32	▼ 1.85	103.61	88.39	▲ 15.22	▲ 13.37
Wed 3/2/2016	vs Tulane₂₀₃	W 68.42 - 62.89	W 73-65	12-16	96.60	99.90	▲ 3.30	94.21	94.47	▼ 0.26	▲ 3.04
Sun 3/6/2016	@ UConn₃₃	L 58.00 - 74.56	L 46-67	12-17	89.58	73.83	▼ 15.75	108.40	102.44	▲ 5.96	▼ 9.79
Thu 3/10/2016	vs Tulane₂₀₃ *	W 66.49 - 64.79	L 63-65	12-18	96.60	87.50	▼ 9.10	94.21	89.04	▲ 5.17	▼ 3.93
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Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	When facing teams that are typically efficient on offense, UCF often performs worse than normal. UCF is more efficient than usual 8% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive efficiency rating vs. AO greater than 104.25. In their other contests, UCF performs better than the norm 82% of the time.
	UCF does worse vs. clubs that tend to capitalize off breakaway opportunities. When playing squads that have a potential point rate off steals vs. AO greater than 11.46, UCF performs above average 9% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 74% of the time.
	UCF performs worse against squads that convert more frequently off of offensive rebounds. When facing teams that have an offensive second-chance conversion percentage vs. AO greater than 6.26%, UCF is more efficient than normal 30% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 90% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox