Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2015-16 Arkansas State 11-20 (0.355) | Sun Belt

All-Play Percentage: 0.274 (255^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.498 (174^th)	Record Quality: -0.212 (277^th)	Avg. Season Rank: 240.75 (245^th)
Pace: 73.50 (23^rd)	Momentum: -1.74 (251^st)	Off. Momentum: -0.31 (218^th)	Def. Momentum: -1.44 (234^th)
Consistency: -10.10 (312^th)	Res. Consistency: -10.88 (127^th)	Away From Home: -0.43 (218^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: 1.13 (36^th)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 4, 2016. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

96.17

29.34

71.78

82.35

40.94

24.56

31.29

30.27

38.17

27.53

52.58

9.53

17.21

6.81

29.82

36.75

33.43

1.96

RANK:

261^st

142^nd

110^th

158^th

285^th

303^rd

307^th

28^th

66^th

242^nd

323^rd

251^st

58^th

152^nd

309^th

20^th

240^th

104^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

105.10

31.76

83.98

42.33

32.23

38.25

25.44

33.28

26.31

56.09

11.38

15.40

6.35

38.38

30.29

31.33

2.07

RANK:

229^th

284^th

250^th

100^th

308^th

328^th

240^th

62^nd

73^rd

77^th

221^st

196^th

130^th

286^th

223^rd

49^th

46^th

ANALYSIS:
If you see Arkansas State on the schedule, you will likely get one of the average to below-average teams in college hoops. Carrying a record of 11-20, they are currently rated #255 overall (out of 351) in All-Play Percentage this season. Of the 11 schools in the Sun Belt (average ranking 179.6), they're currently ranked as our #9 team in the conference.

Offense is not the strong suit when it comes to Arkansas State. The team is ranked 261st in offensive efficiency and scores fewer than 97 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Arkansas State won't provide opponents much of a scare with their shooting percentage from the inside. The team is ranked 323rd in near-proximity field goal percentage, making only 52.6% of their attempts from up-close vs. AO. Arkansas State also won't enter the conversation if you're looking to list the best three-point shooting teams in the country. They are ranked 307th in three-point field goal percentage nationally and make just 31.3% of their attempts from long vs. AO.

Arkansas State doesn't rate much better on defense than they do on offense. Allowing roughly 105 points for every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO, they are ranked #229 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State does an extremely poor job to deny the opposition behind the arc. They rank 328th nationally in defensive three-point percentage, allowing AO to make 38.2% of their attempts from afar.

Arkansas State has been one of the more erratic teams in NCAA basketball this year (presently ranked 312th in the country in consistency), which makes forecasting the outcomes of their upcoming games tougher than most.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Fri 11/13/2015	@ SIUE₂₈₇	L 70.33 - 71.69	L 70-79	0-1	100.34	100.14	▼ 0.20	97.36	105.30	▼ 7.94	▼ 8.14
Mon 11/16/2015	vs Lyon College	---	W 81-37	1-1	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Wed 11/18/2015	@ Savannah State₃₂₉	W 68.73 - 65.47	L 75-76	1-2	98.47	97.85	▼ 0.62	88.67	92.08	▼ 3.41	▼ 4.03
Sun 11/22/2015	vs Jackson State₂₄₂	W 71.44 - 68.21	W 78-69	2-2	95.74	99.79	▲ 4.05	97.07	87.64	▲ 9.43	▲ 13.48
Wed 11/25/2015	@ Oregon₁₆	L 62.08 - 89.44	L 68-91	2-3	87.79	73.93	▼ 13.86	118.65	107.23	▲ 11.42	▼ 2.44
Fri 11/27/2015	@ Baylor₃₁	L 63.68 - 86.75	L 72-94	2-4	92.56	96.47	▲ 3.91	119.16	133.15	▼ 13.99	▼ 10.08
Tue 12/1/2015	@ Missouri₁₆₇	L 68.27 - 78.33	L 78-88	2-5	95.48	104.29	▲ 8.81	103.73	114.89	▼ 11.16	▼ 2.35
Fri 12/4/2015	vs North Dakota St.₁₅₃	L 67.60 - 70.11	L 73-74	2-6	93.33	97.08	▲ 3.75	102.72	104.29	▼ 1.57	▲ 2.18
Sat 12/12/2015	vs Ark Monticello	---	W 104-71	3-6	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Fri 12/18/2015	@ UT Martin₂₀₆	L 70.05 - 77.07	L 70-74	3-7	98.12	85.27	▼ 12.85	102.77	85.18	▲ 17.59	▲ 4.74
Tue 12/22/2015	vs Cent. Arkansas₃₃₈	W 85.80 - 72.32	W 77-67	4-7	109.23	90.67	▼ 18.56	97.53	77.28	▲ 20.25	▲ 1.69
Wed 12/30/2015	@ Troy₂₆₃	L 71.53 - 74.71	W 84-81	5-7	99.66	113.44	▲ 13.78	98.65	103.66	▼ 5.01	▲ 8.77
Sat 1/2/2016	@ South Alabama₂₅₀	L 70.23 - 74.75	W 89-67	6-7	96.71	119.34	▲ 22.63	97.28	83.65	▲ 13.63	▲ 36.26
Thu 1/7/2016	vs UL Monroe₁₂₁	L 69.84 - 74.90	W 68-65 (OT)	7-7	94.83	83.24	▼ 11.59	108.06	89.07	▲ 18.99	▲ 7.40
Sat 1/9/2016	vs Louisiana₁₁₄	L 75.56 - 81.77	W 71-69	8-7	97.99	94.34	▼ 3.65	111.74	98.75	▲ 12.99	▲ 9.34
Sat 1/16/2016	vs Appalachian St.₂₆₄	W 79.93 - 74.61	L 72-86	8-8	103.41	89.08	▼ 14.33	102.23	116.08	▼ 13.85	▼ 28.18
Mon 1/18/2016	vs Little Rock₅₉	L 63.26 - 74.32	W 76-73	9-8	88.79	98.42	▲ 9.63	109.95	102.92	▲ 7.03	▲ 16.66
Thu 1/21/2016	@ UT Arlington₈₅	L 67.54 - 85.51	L 64-91	9-9	90.92	71.17	▼ 19.75	108.97	111.37	▼ 2.40	▼ 22.15
Sat 1/23/2016	@ Texas State₂₁₅	L 64.67 - 70.80	L 68-78	9-10	96.52	113.15	▲ 16.63	99.73	124.54	▼ 24.81	▼ 8.18
Thu 1/28/2016	vs Georgia State₁₅₆	L 66.94 - 69.38	W 75-69 (OT)	10-10	91.50	75.16	▼ 16.34	101.00	81.00	▲ 20.00	▲ 3.66
Sat 1/30/2016	vs Ga Southern₁₉₄	W 76.32 - 76.16	L 66-71	10-11	99.92	97.08	▼ 2.84	105.74	110.49	▼ 4.75	▼ 7.59
Thu 2/4/2016	vs South Alabama₂₅₀	W 74.48 - 70.62	W 79-73 (OT)	11-11	96.71	92.92	▼ 3.79	97.28	98.75	▼ 1.47	▼ 5.26
Sat 2/6/2016	vs Troy₂₆₃	W 75.73 - 70.76	L 70-71	11-12	99.66	101.56	▲ 1.90	98.65	108.89	▼ 10.24	▼ 8.34
Thu 2/11/2016	@ Louisiana₁₁₄	L 71.30 - 86.00	L 73-83	11-13	97.99	110.27	▲ 12.28	111.74	122.84	▼ 11.10	▲ 1.18
Sat 2/13/2016	@ UL Monroe₁₂₁	L 65.77 - 78.91	L 73-78 (OT)	11-14	94.83	114.58	▲ 19.75	108.06	106.92	▲ 1.14	▲ 20.89
Thu 2/18/2016	@ Ga Southern₁₉₄	L 72.10 - 80.37	L 59-90	11-15	99.92	57.46	▼ 42.46	105.74	137.08	▼ 31.34	▼ 73.80
Sat 2/20/2016	@ Georgia State₁₅₆	L 62.91 - 73.36	L 61-69	11-16	91.50	86.02	▼ 5.48	101.00	97.08	▲ 3.92	▼ 1.56
Thu 2/25/2016	vs Texas State₂₁₅	W 68.61 - 66.99	L 60-71	11-17	96.52	86.31	▼ 10.21	99.73	110.49	▼ 10.76	▼ 20.97
Sat 2/27/2016	vs UT Arlington₈₅	L 71.89 - 81.17	L 75-79	11-18	90.92	85.32	▼ 5.60	108.97	96.97	▲ 12.00	▲ 6.40
Tue 3/1/2016	@ Little Rock₅₉	L 59.33 - 78.36	L 80-89	11-19	88.79	122.32	▲ 33.53	109.95	126.07	▼ 16.12	▲ 17.41
Sat 3/5/2016	@ Appalachian St.₂₆₄	L 75.65 - 78.84	L 73-80	11-20	103.41	96.51	▼ 6.90	102.23	98.35	▲ 3.88	▼ 3.02
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Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	When facing teams that find ways to get to the free throw line, Arkansas State often performs worse than normal. Arkansas State is more efficient than usual 32% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive free throw attempt rate vs. AO greater than 27.79. In their other contests, Arkansas State performs better than the norm 90% of the time.
	Arkansas State does worse vs. clubs that do not defend well on the perimeter. When playing squads that have a defensive three-point field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 34.61%, Arkansas State performs above average 31% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 77% of the time.
	Arkansas State performs better against squads that shoot the ball well from the field. When facing teams that have an offensive field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 42.45%, Arkansas State is more efficient than normal 77% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 31% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox