Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2017-18 Air Force 12-19 (0.387) | Mountain West

All-Play Percentage: 0.431 (200^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.586 (97^th)	Record Quality: -0.103 (221^st)	Avg. Season Rank: 234.28 (232^nd)
Pace: 67.98 (299^th)	Momentum: 5.58 (10^th)	Off. Momentum: -0.13 (202^nd)	Def. Momentum: 5.70 (2^nd)
Consistency: -10.66 (327^th)	Res. Consistency: -12.04 (201^st)	Away From Home: -2.77 (338^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: 0.36 (61^st)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 2, 2018. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

99.64

25.50

76.13

81.26

42.15

34.72

33.78

22.42

37.11

24.12

58.91

10.88

14.48

5.65

42.73

27.59

29.68

2.13

RANK:

204^th

190^th

44^th

207^th

266^th

56^th

250^th

177^th

174^th

320^th

196^th

180^th

183^rd

257^th

57^th

168^th

316^th

326^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

103.91

24.25

80.69

45.53

34.12

38.33

23.46

38.99

23.11

62.81

10.85

12.67

6.07

42.28

29.08

28.64

2.14

RANK:

192^nd

96^th

115^th

219^th

312^th

223^rd

253^rd

21^st

258^th

175^th

45^th

99^th

320^th

240^th

20^th

16^th

ANALYSIS:
Air Force has a squad that most likely falls somewhere in the bottom half of NCAA Division I teams this year. Their record this season is 12-19, and the club is ranked 200th overall (out of 351) in Haslametrics' most recent ratings. Of the 11 schools in the MWC (average ranking 114.7), they're currently ranked as our #9 team in the conference.

Air Force sports an offensive attack that is mediocre at best. Rated at #204 in offensive efficiency, they score about 100 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Air Force would not consider converting field goal attempts to be a strength. The team is rated #266 in the country in field goal percentage, making good on a meager 42.2% of their attempts vs. AO. If Air Force does have a strength offensively, it would have to be the team's outstanding shooting at the charity stripe. The squad makes 76.1% of their free throw attempts, which ranks #44 in Division I.

Air Force doesn't rate much better on defense than they do on offense. Allowing roughly 104 points for every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO, they are ranked #192 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Air Force does a very lackluster job preventing opponents from draining threes. They rank 312th nationally in defensive three-point percentage, allowing AO to make 38.3% of their attempts from afar. And to expose that weakness, AO will gladly launch the three all day and all night. Of AO's total field goals, a large chunk of them (42.3%) will be from long-distance. If Air Force does have a bright spot on defense, it would have to be their success stopping opponents from earning second-chance opportunities via offensive boards. The team has a rating of 12.67 in potential points allowed off of second chances vs. AO, which ranks 45th-best in college hoops.

Air Force has been playing much better basketball as of late and is presently ranked tenth in positive momentum because of it. Air Force has also been one of the most erratic teams in college basketball this year (currently ranked 327th overall in consistency), which makes the outcomes of their future games far more difficult to predict. On the road, Air Force performs noticeably worse than they do at home. The team is currently ranked 338th in the country in the away-from-home metric we track.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Sun 11/12/2017	vs Texas State₂₂₁	W 65.18 - 61.26	W 65-57	1-0	100.67	97.73	▼ 2.94	98.77	88.42	▲ 10.35	▲ 7.41
Tue 11/14/2017	vs Canisius₁₂₂	L 69.19 - 71.59	W 93-79	2-0	98.47	123.08	▲ 24.61	106.33	111.99	▼ 5.66	▲ 18.95
Mon 11/20/2017	vs AR-Pine Bluff₃₂₉	W 73.50 - 60.39	W 57-47	3-0	104.28	89.67	▼ 14.61	89.95	80.60	▲ 9.35	▼ 5.26
Tue 11/21/2017	vs Pacific₁₅₈	W 68.22 - 68.16	L 71-83	3-1	100.21	99.16	▼ 1.05	104.36	119.17	▼ 14.81	▼ 15.86
Sun 11/26/2017	@ Colorado₁₁₆	L 62.75 - 71.83	L 69-81	3-2	94.77	103.74	▲ 8.97	103.43	115.12	▼ 11.69	▼ 2.72
Wed 11/29/2017	@ Indiana State₁₃₇	L 66.12 - 73.53	L 64-74	3-3	97.69	90.50	▼ 7.19	103.68	100.59	▲ 3.09	▼ 4.10
Sat 12/2/2017	@ Denver₂₂₈	L 66.75 - 67.79	W 61-59	4-3	102.39	89.41	▼ 12.98	99.33	83.24	▲ 16.09	▲ 3.11
Mon 12/4/2017	vs Western State	---	W 79-67	5-3	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Wed 12/6/2017	vs Abil. Christian₂₆₈	W 71.66 - 64.18	L 58-62	5-4	102.72	81.79	▼ 20.93	95.87	89.59	▲ 6.28	▼ 14.65
Fri 12/8/2017	@ UC Riverside₂₈₃	W 66.65 - 64.22	L 48-67	5-5	100.28	81.93	▼ 18.35	92.62	111.29	▼ 18.67	▼ 37.02
Sun 12/17/2017	vs Army₂₄₅ *	W 72.18 - 69.33	L 54-79	5-6	102.59	76.56	▼ 26.03	98.48	115.63	▼ 17.15	▼ 43.18
Fri 12/22/2017	vs Johnson and Wales (Den)	---	W 111-68	6-6	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Wed 12/27/2017	@ New Mexico₁₀₀	L 68.66 - 79.65	L 58-87	6-7	100.35	77.27	▼ 23.08	111.22	112.48	▼ 1.26	▼ 24.34
Sat 12/30/2017	@ Fresno State₆₈	L 61.03 - 74.18	L 59-71	6-8	95.32	95.71	▲ 0.39	110.28	109.02	▲ 1.26	▲ 1.65
Sat 1/6/2018	vs Nevada₂₉	L 67.08 - 79.18	L 75-86	6-9	95.91	114.92	▲ 19.01	117.46	133.52	▼ 16.06	▲ 2.95
Wed 1/10/2018	vs UNLV₈₄	L 71.28 - 78.10	L 76-81	6-10	96.64	109.50	▲ 12.86	110.24	119.66	▼ 9.42	▲ 3.44
Sat 1/13/2018	@ San Jose State₂₇₉	W 67.22 - 65.13	W 78-71	7-10	102.17	126.08	▲ 23.91	95.20	110.43	▼ 15.23	▲ 8.68
Wed 1/17/2018	@ Colorado State₂₀₅	L 69.66 - 72.58	W 76-71	8-10	103.19	107.83	▲ 4.64	103.08	97.73	▲ 5.35	▲ 9.99
Wed 1/24/2018	@ Utah State₁₁₉	L 64.26 - 72.84	L 49-71	8-11	98.52	75.48	▼ 23.04	107.11	112.02	▼ 4.91	▼ 27.95
Sat 1/27/2018	vs Boise State₃₇	L 62.70 - 73.95	L 64-70	8-12	89.67	100.96	▲ 11.29	110.08	113.38	▼ 3.30	▲ 7.99
Sat 2/3/2018	@ San Diego State₃₀	L 59.79 - 77.99	L 50-81	8-13	89.48	78.00	▼ 11.48	110.92	121.46	▼ 10.54	▼ 22.02
Tue 2/6/2018	vs Colorado State₂₀₅	W 72.80 - 69.54	W 78-73	9-13	103.19	109.16	▲ 5.97	103.08	108.07	▼ 4.99	▲ 0.98
Sat 2/10/2018	vs New Mexico₁₀₀	L 71.84 - 76.43	W 100-92	10-13	100.35	119.68	▲ 19.33	111.22	109.59	▲ 1.63	▲ 20.96
Wed 2/14/2018	@ UNLV₈₄	L 68.00 - 81.29	L 73-81	10-14	96.64	105.09	▲ 8.45	110.24	110.23	▲ 0.01	▲ 8.46
Sat 2/17/2018	@ Boise State₃₇	L 59.60 - 77.05	L 52-76	10-15	89.67	77.27	▼ 12.40	110.08	119.55	▼ 9.47	▼ 21.87
Wed 2/21/2018	vs San Diego State₃₀	L 62.90 - 74.92	L 56-67	10-16	89.48	83.88	▼ 5.60	110.92	105.35	▲ 5.57	▼ 0.03
Sat 2/24/2018	vs Utah State₁₁₉	L 67.29 - 69.91	W 75-65	11-16	98.52	106.43	▲ 7.91	107.11	99.28	▲ 7.83	▲ 15.74
Mon 2/26/2018	vs Fresno State₆₈	L 64.01 - 71.32	L 48-54	11-17	95.32	60.97	▼ 34.35	110.28	81.68	▲ 28.60	▼ 5.75
Wed 2/28/2018	@ Wyoming₁₁₁	L 67.34 - 77.47	L 54-66	11-18	95.07	79.41	▼ 15.66	104.18	90.69	▲ 13.49	▼ 2.17
Sat 3/3/2018	vs San Jose State₂₇₉	W 70.28 - 62.22	W 83-61	12-18	102.17	122.73	▲ 20.56	95.20	76.81	▲ 18.39	▲ 38.95
Wed 3/7/2018	@ UNLV₈₄	L 68.00 - 81.29	L 90-97 (OT)	12-19	96.64	112.41	▲ 15.77	110.24	107.88	▲ 2.36	▲ 18.13
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---

Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	Air Force does better vs. clubs that effectively clean the offensive glass. When playing squads that have an offensive second-chance potential point rate vs. AO greater than 14.85, Air Force performs above average 77% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 25% of the time.
	Air Force performs better against squads that allow a greater number of field goal opportunities. When facing teams that have a defensive field goal attempt rate vs. AO greater than 83.05, Air Force is more efficient than normal 89% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 40% of the time.
	When playing teams that allow more chances at the line, Air Force usually performs worse than average. Air Force is more efficient than normal 39% of the time when facing clubs that have a defensive free throw attempt rate vs. AO greater than 24.33. In all other contests, Air Force performs better than average 82% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox