Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2016-17 Duke 28-9 (0.757) | ACC

All-Play Percentage: 0.971 (11^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.755 (19^th)	Record Quality: 0.484 (11^th)	Avg. Season Rank: 10.36 (10^th)
Pace: 70.31 (170^th)	Momentum: 1.03 (123^rd)	Off. Momentum: 2.56 (61^st)	Def. Momentum: -1.53 (238^th)
Consistency: -8.29 (94^th)	Res. Consistency: -11.29 (168^th)	Away From Home: -0.64 (223^rd)	Paper Tiger Factor: -2.27 (283^rd)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through April 3, 2017. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

119.92

33.60

77.17

82.63

49.36

31.35

39.58

23.23

40.45

28.05

67.67

11.03

14.60

7.97

37.94

28.11

33.95

2.04

RANK:

6^th

7^th

16^th

124^th

14^th

114^th

19^th

194^th

21^st

196^th

15^th

151^st

174^th

56^th

129^th

193^rd

205^th

220^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

93.51

24.38

83.21

41.43

24.82

28.68

27.34

31.44

31.05

60.42

7.83

13.16

5.75

29.83

32.85

37.32

1.93

RANK:

39^th

63^rd

238^th

58^th

19^th

3^rd

309^th

8^th

281^st

189^th

8^th

76^th

78^th

11^th

305^th

262^nd

321^st

ANALYSIS:
A top-25 caliber team, Duke will almost certainly present a challenging task for any Division I opponent. Their record this season is 28-9, and the club is ranked 11th overall (out of 351) in Haslametrics' most recent ratings. They are also ranked by this site as the #3 team (out of 15) in the ACC (average ranking 44.4). Sporting a strength-of-schedule rating of 0.755 (the 19th-highest in the country), Duke has prepared themselves by challenging some of the best teams in the college game.

Duke will create problems for opponents with their extremely prolific offense. Scoring roughly 120 points for every 100 possessions vs. AO, the squad is rated #6 in offensive efficiency. Duke does a super job in their efforts to get to the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of 33.60 vs. AO, they are ranked seventh in the nation at getting to the charity stripe. And they make you pay once they get there, too, converting a very accurate 77.2% of their free throws attempts, 16th-best in the country. Duke also allows very few breakaway opportunities for the opposition, which typically translates to fewer turnovers. The team's rating vs. AO for potential breakaway points allowed off of steals is 7.83, which ranks #8 in the country. Duke is lastly one of the most lethal teams in the country when it comes to shooting the basketball, ranking in the top-25 in each of our four major field goal categories. They make 39.6% of their three-pointers (19th in the nation), 40.5% of their mid-range jumpers (21st), 67.7% of their near-proximity chances (15th), and 49.4% of their total shots from the field (14th) vs. AO.

Duke plays at roughly the same level defensively as they do offensively. The team ranks 39th nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing about 94 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Duke does an outstanding job shutting down the opposition from behind the arc. They rank third in the NCAA in defensive three-point percentage, allowing AO to make just 28.7% of their attempts from afar. For this reason, AO takes nowhere near as many threes as they typically would -- just 29.8% of AO's field goal attempts will be from downtown. Duke also does a bang-up job preventing the opposition from draining jumpers in between the three-point line and the low post. They're ranked eighth in Division I in defensive mid-range field goal percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 31.4% of their attempts from that distance. To capitalize on that weakness, this team will make AO shoot from mid-range locations more than they usually would. Of AO's total field goals, a large portion of them (32.9%) will be from mid-range.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Fri 11/11/2016	vs Marist₃₀₁	W 92.39 - 59.67	W 94-49	1-0	130.11	117.08	▼ 13.03	88.57	61.14	▲ 27.43	▲ 14.40
Sat 11/12/2016	vs Grand Canyon₁₆₄	W 85.51 - 62.59	W 96-61	2-0	116.80	112.28	▼ 4.52	89.89	79.83	▲ 10.06	▲ 5.54
Tue 11/15/2016	vs Kansas₆ *	L 78.76 - 80.37	L 75-77	2-1	109.90	102.74	▼ 7.16	112.40	104.05	▲ 8.35	▲ 1.19
Sat 11/19/2016	vs Penn State₉₆ *	W 82.43 - 67.52	W 78-68	3-1	114.17	109.74	▼ 4.43	93.94	95.67	▼ 1.73	▼ 6.16
Sun 11/20/2016	vs URI₄₄ *	W 77.08 - 69.36	W 75-65	4-1	112.05	114.52	▲ 2.47	100.96	92.19	▲ 8.77	▲ 11.24
Wed 11/23/2016	vs William & Mary₁₄₂	W 92.59 - 70.33	W 88-67	5-1	125.22	136.77	▲ 11.55	99.55	98.83	▲ 0.72	▲ 12.27
Sat 11/26/2016	vs Appalachian St.₂₆₇	W 93.17 - 62.32	W 93-58	6-1	125.60	156.12	▲ 30.52	87.68	89.45	▼ 1.77	▲ 28.75
Tue 11/29/2016	vs Michigan State₄₁	W 78.53 - 68.18	W 78-69	7-1	110.60	107.78	▼ 2.82	100.44	93.64	▲ 6.80	▲ 3.98
Sat 12/3/2016	vs Maine₃₃₃	W 91.42 - 54.33	W 94-55	8-1	127.76	135.78	▲ 8.02	79.52	80.22	▼ 0.70	▲ 7.32
Tue 12/6/2016	vs Florida₄ *	L 74.12 - 75.84	W 84-74	9-1	105.16	120.00	▲ 14.84	107.92	102.86	▲ 5.06	▲ 19.90
Sat 12/10/2016	@ UNLV₂₂₅	W 84.02 - 63.09	W 94-45	10-1	119.52	129.67	▲ 10.15	86.53	61.78	▲ 24.75	▲ 34.90
Mon 12/19/2016	vs Tennessee St.₁₃₃	W 82.17 - 60.68	W 65-55	11-1	115.50	97.78	▼ 17.72	89.17	82.81	▲ 6.36	▼ 11.36
Wed 12/21/2016	vs Elon₁₅₈ *	W 82.50 - 63.72	W 72-61	12-1	117.60	105.88	▼ 11.72	91.40	86.76	▲ 4.64	▼ 7.08
Sat 12/31/2016	@ Virginia Tech₅₀	W 80.67 - 75.22	L 75-89	12-2	117.51	106.76	▼ 10.75	105.84	126.57	▼ 20.73	▼ 31.48
Wed 1/4/2017	vs Georgia Tech₇₅	W 77.62 - 62.05	W 110-57	13-2	108.61	153.10	▲ 44.49	91.16	84.44	▲ 6.72	▲ 51.21
Sat 1/7/2017	vs Boston College₁₃₇	W 87.75 - 65.63	W 93-82	14-2	118.15	108.63	▼ 9.52	93.12	101.01	▼ 7.89	▼ 17.41
Tue 1/10/2017	@ Florida State₂₄	W 78.67 - 78.50	L 72-88	14-3	110.10	97.99	▼ 12.11	105.91	114.45	▼ 8.54	▼ 20.65
Sat 1/14/2017	@ Louisville₁₃	L 72.40 - 74.85	L 69-78	14-4	105.67	99.40	▼ 6.27	104.87	107.64	▼ 2.77	▼ 9.04
Sat 1/21/2017	vs Miami₃₇	W 73.16 - 63.83	W 70-58	15-4	108.28	105.48	▼ 2.80	99.16	83.17	▲ 15.99	▲ 13.19
Mon 1/23/2017	vs NC State₁₀₁	W 89.74 - 71.09	L 82-84	15-5	121.18	105.68	▼ 15.50	100.48	112.74	▼ 12.26	▼ 27.76
Sat 1/28/2017	@ Wake Forest₃₀	W 83.76 - 80.92	W 85-83	16-5	116.93	117.08	▲ 0.15	108.72	111.48	▼ 2.76	▼ 2.61
Mon 1/30/2017	@ Notre Dame₂₃	L 76.49 - 76.56	W 84-74	17-5	112.89	120.53	▲ 7.64	108.83	102.01	▲ 6.82	▲ 14.46
Sat 2/4/2017	vs Pittsburgh₇₄	W 82.24 - 67.16	W 72-64	18-5	118.51	115.82	▼ 2.69	101.40	105.55	▼ 4.15	▼ 6.84
Thu 2/9/2017	vs North Carolina₃	W 79.36 - 78.03	W 86-78	19-5	107.32	126.14	▲ 18.82	109.56	116.92	▼ 7.36	▲ 11.46
Sat 2/11/2017	vs Clemson₃₆	W 79.74 - 70.18	W 64-62	20-5	113.23	96.25	▼ 16.98	104.31	97.60	▲ 6.71	▼ 10.27
Wed 2/15/2017	@ Virginia₉	L 62.55 - 65.53	W 65-55	21-5	102.15	112.39	▲ 10.24	103.14	94.28	▲ 8.86	▲ 19.10
Sat 2/18/2017	vs Wake Forest₃₀	W 87.09 - 77.59	W 99-94	22-5	116.93	143.37	▲ 26.44	108.72	137.51	▼ 28.79	▼ 2.35
Wed 2/22/2017	@ Syracuse₄₃	W 78.48 - 74.22	L 75-78	22-6	117.39	119.40	▲ 2.01	105.72	121.59	▼ 15.87	▼ 13.86
Sat 2/25/2017	@ Miami₃₇	W 70.15 - 66.70	L 50-55	22-7	108.28	81.58	▼ 26.70	99.16	85.09	▲ 14.07	▼ 12.63
Tue 2/28/2017	vs Florida State₂₄	W 81.98 - 75.38	W 75-70	23-7	110.10	106.48	▼ 3.62	105.91	105.16	▲ 0.75	▼ 2.87
Sat 3/4/2017	@ North Carolina₃	L 76.08 - 81.17	L 83-90	23-8	107.32	117.49	▲ 10.17	109.56	122.78	▼ 13.22	▼ 3.05
Wed 3/8/2017	vs Clemson₃₆ *	W 78.17 - 71.72	W 79-72	24-8	113.23	112.86	▼ 0.37	104.31	104.35	▼ 0.04	▼ 0.41
Thu 3/9/2017	vs Louisville₁₃ *	W 73.99 - 73.35	W 81-77	25-8	105.67	110.96	▲ 5.29	104.87	106.94	▼ 2.07	▲ 3.22
Fri 3/10/2017	vs North Carolina₃ *	L 77.72 - 79.60	W 93-83	26-8	107.32	123.29	▲ 15.97	109.56	104.00	▲ 5.56	▲ 21.53
Sat 3/11/2017	vs Notre Dame₂₃ *	W 78.07 - 74.96	W 75-69	27-8	112.89	119.05	▲ 6.16	108.83	109.52	▼ 0.69	▲ 5.47
Fri 3/17/2017	vs Troy₁₂₀ *	W 85.56 - 68.38	W 87-65	28-8	121.84	125.00	▲ 3.16	97.92	95.24	▲ 2.68	▲ 5.84
Sun 3/19/2017	vs South Carolina₂₆ *	W 73.62 - 69.73	L 81-88	28-9	104.49	108.00	▲ 3.51	98.91	117.33	▼ 18.42	▼ 14.91
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Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	When facing teams that do a nice job converting inside the paint, Duke often performs worse than normal. Duke is more efficient than usual 28% of the time when facing teams that have an offensive near-proximity field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 63.34%. In their other contests, Duke performs better than the norm 68% of the time.
	Duke does worse vs. clubs that tend to allow more shots on the perimeter. When playing squads that have a defensive shooting proximity score vs. AO greater than 2.03, Duke performs above average 23% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 63% of the time.
	Duke performs worse against squads that convert more frequently off of offensive rebounds. When facing teams that have an offensive second-chance conversion percentage vs. AO greater than 6.75%, Duke is more efficient than normal 36% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 75% of the time.

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox