Haslametrics.com

Automated Team Capsule for 2019-20 Montana State 16-15 (0.516) | Big Sky

All-Play Percentage: 0.398 (212^th)	Schedule Strength: 0.489 (176^th)	Record Quality: -0.015 (188^th)	Avg. Season Rank: 186.19 (188^th)
Pace: 68.94 (222^nd)	Momentum: -2.48 (292^nd)	Off. Momentum: 0.24 (210^th)	Def. Momentum: -2.71 (300^th)
Consistency: -10.53 (328^th)	Res. Consistency: -11.38 (143^rd)	Away From Home: -0.36 (184^th)	Paper Tiger Factor: -0.59 (150^th)

NOTE: All data below reflects predicted performance against the "AO" (average opponent), a fictitious opponent who represents the average in every stat category.
Hover over column headers or visit "ABOUT" page for an explanation of each measurement.
Includes games through March 11, 2020. Data shown on this page is based on time-independent ratings.

OFFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

94.48

28.21

74.60

75.41

42.88

27.43

31.96

21.46

35.93

26.53

59.79

8.61

10.49

3.57

36.37

28.46

35.18

2.01

RANK:

252^nd

67^th

74^th

351^st

189^th

274^th

257^th

212^th

221^st

247^th

143^rd

301^st

296^th

318^th

218^th

149^th

151^st

147^th

DEFENSE

Eff

FTAR

FT%

FGAR

FG%

3PAR

3P%

MRAR

MR%

NPAR

NP%

PPSt

PPSC

SCC%

%3PA

%MRA

%NPA

Prox

RATING:

99.38

25.86

83.47

41.99

34.09

31.86

21.95

36.64

27.43

58.84

12.01

12.26

3.73

40.84

26.30

32.86

2.08

RANK:

168^th

196^th

240^th

100^th

309^th

96^th

150^th

153^rd

122^nd

161^st

260^th

120^th

29^th

294^th

141^st

91^st

69^th

ANALYSIS:
Montana State has a squad that most likely falls somewhere in the bottom half of NCAA Division I teams this year. They are ranked #212 (out of 353) in the most recent Haslametrics ratings and have a record of 16-15. Of the 11 schools in the Big Sky (average ranking 189.0), they're currently ranked as our #8 team in the conference.

If there is a strength for Montana State this year, it's probably on the defensive end of the court. The team is rated 168th in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than 100 points for every 100 possessions vs. AO. Montana State is one of the better teams when it comes to not allowing opponents to convert scoring chances off of offensive rebounds. The squad allows AO to convert only 3.7% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 29th in the NCAA).

Montana State doesn't perform as well offensively as they do defensively. The team is ranked 252nd in offensive efficiency, scoring about 94 points every 100 possessions vs. AO. Montana State happens to be one of the very worst in the game when it comes to maximizing the number of shot attempts they get off from the floor. The team is nationally ranked third from the bottom in offensive field goal attempt rate with a rating of only 75.41 vs. AO. Montana State is also one of the more deficient teams in the nation as it pertains to scoring off of offensive rebounds. Against AO, the team converts only 3.6% of all second-chance opportunities (318th nationally).

Montana State has been one of the more erratic teams in NCAA basketball this year (presently ranked 328th in the country in consistency), which makes forecasting the outcomes of their upcoming games tougher than most.

SORTABLE SCHEDULE / RESULTS:


					ADJ. OFF. EFFICIENCY			ADJ. DEF. EFFICIENCY
Date	Opponent	Should	Did	Record	Should	Did	Diff.	Should	Did	Diff.	Rating
Tue 11/5/2019	@ Utah State₄₂	L 56.56 - 73.74	L 73-81	0-1	85.69	97.11	▲ 11.42	105.45	103.95	▲ 1.50	▲ 12.92
Sat 11/9/2019	vs Rocky Mo	---	W 93-60	1-1	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Fri 11/15/2019	vs Appalachian St.₁₈₃ *	L 62.67 - 65.19	W 59-56	2-1	92.61	83.57	▼ 9.04	96.11	79.32	▲ 16.79	▲ 7.75
Sat 11/16/2019	@ UNCG₉₂	L 58.41 - 70.19	W 67-66	3-1	88.06	100.62	▲ 12.56	100.27	90.18	▲ 10.09	▲ 22.65
Sun 11/17/2019	vs Tenn. Tech₃₃₂ *	W 68.89 - 60.29	W 52-39	4-1	100.78	80.00	▼ 20.78	88.65	57.38	▲ 31.27	▲ 10.49
Tue 11/19/2019	@ Grand Canyon₂₇₄	W 69.83 - 69.38	L 56-69	4-2	104.36	92.41	▼ 11.95	98.72	107.08	▼ 8.36	▼ 20.31
Tue 11/26/2019	vs CO Christian	---	W 82-46	5-2	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Sat 11/30/2019	vs Green Bay₂₁₁	W 76.42 - 73.05	L 72-98	5-3	100.62	92.94	▼ 7.68	101.16	133.22	▼ 32.06	▼ 39.74
Thu 12/5/2019	vs South Dakota St.₁₂₉	L 67.98 - 70.61	W 77-70	6-3	95.45	104.13	▲ 8.68	103.81	101.04	▲ 2.77	▲ 11.45
Mon 12/16/2019	@ North Dakota St.₁₁₄	L 61.07 - 71.31	L 65-79	6-4	94.26	99.46	▲ 5.20	104.52	115.02	▼ 10.50	▼ 5.30
Thu 12/19/2019	@ CSU Bakersfield₂₆₀	L 62.60 - 62.93	L 72-74	6-5	96.36	102.09	▲ 5.73	92.05	107.18	▼ 15.13	▼ 9.40
Sat 12/28/2019	vs Sacramento St.₁₅₆	L 59.49 - 60.00	W 66-51	7-5	89.17	99.45	▲ 10.28	94.70	80.58	▲ 14.12	▲ 24.40
Mon 12/30/2019	vs N. Arizona₁₉₆	W 68.13 - 65.91	W 63-61	8-5	99.18	87.55	▼ 11.63	100.82	90.85	▲ 9.97	▼ 1.66
Thu 1/2/2020	@ N. Colorado₈₁	L 59.60 - 72.51	L 59-68	8-6	92.20	91.50	▼ 0.70	106.55	98.67	▲ 7.88	▲ 7.18
Sat 1/4/2020	@ Southern Utah₁₄₂	L 60.82 - 68.77	L 53-59	8-7	91.18	82.45	▼ 8.73	97.30	84.32	▲ 12.98	▲ 4.25
Thu 1/9/2020	@ Idaho₃₂₂	W 67.81 - 63.88	W 71-68	9-7	100.68	111.26	▲ 10.58	90.22	99.09	▼ 8.87	▲ 1.71
Sat 1/11/2020	vs Portland State₁₆₉	L 73.35 - 73.39	L 76-77	9-8	99.45	107.70	▲ 8.25	104.34	114.04	▼ 9.70	▼ 1.45
Sat 1/18/2020	vs E. Washington₁₂₇	L 69.85 - 72.64	L 58-71	9-9	93.44	75.40	▼ 18.04	101.78	92.32	▲ 9.46	▼ 8.58
Thu 1/23/2020	@ Weber State₂₇₁	L 65.73 - 65.77	W 62-61	10-9	100.00	87.38	▼ 12.62	94.81	81.11	▲ 13.70	▲ 1.08
Sat 1/25/2020	@ Idaho State₂₆₉	W 68.10 - 68.04	W 75-64	11-9	103.33	109.91	▲ 6.58	98.17	87.26	▲ 10.91	▲ 17.49
Sat 2/1/2020	@ Montana₁₃₄	L 61.20 - 69.81	L 64-78	11-10	91.10	97.83	▲ 6.73	98.60	114.48	▼ 15.88	▼ 9.15
Thu 2/6/2020	vs Idaho₃₂₂	W 71.25 - 60.58	W 72-50	12-10	100.68	121.82	▲ 21.14	90.22	88.16	▲ 2.06	▲ 23.20
Sat 2/8/2020	@ E. Washington₁₂₇	L 66.24 - 76.21	L 49-74	12-11	93.44	48.45	▼ 44.99	101.78	105.40	▼ 3.62	▼ 48.61
Thu 2/13/2020	vs Idaho State₂₆₉	W 71.47 - 64.81	W 73-69	13-11	103.33	93.29	▼ 10.04	98.17	94.14	▲ 4.03	▼ 6.01
Sat 2/15/2020	vs Weber State₂₇₁	W 69.09 - 62.44	W 77-63	14-11	100.00	116.60	▲ 16.60	94.81	102.45	▼ 7.64	▲ 8.96
Thu 2/20/2020	@ Portland State₁₆₉	L 69.77 - 76.90	L 77-87	14-12	99.45	108.08	▲ 8.63	104.34	118.39	▼ 14.05	▼ 5.42
Sat 2/22/2020	vs Montana₁₃₄	L 64.63 - 66.42	L 54-59	14-13	91.10	79.37	▼ 11.73	98.60	90.18	▲ 8.42	▼ 3.31
Thu 2/27/2020	@ Sacramento St.₁₅₆	L 56.27 - 63.17	L 52-81	14-14	89.17	73.36	▼ 15.81	94.70	119.37	▼ 24.67	▼ 40.48
Sat 2/29/2020	@ N. Arizona₁₉₆	L 64.79 - 69.23	W 63-57	15-14	99.18	95.73	▼ 3.45	100.82	88.46	▲ 12.36	▲ 8.91
Thu 3/5/2020	vs Southern Utah₁₄₂	L 64.23 - 65.38	W 73-65	16-14	91.18	103.35	▲ 12.17	97.30	99.10	▼ 1.80	▲ 10.37
Sat 3/7/2020	vs N. Colorado₈₁	L 62.91 - 69.30	L 61-75	16-15	92.20	97.55	▲ 5.35	106.55	125.40	▼ 18.85	▼ 13.50
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---
		---			---	---	---	---	---	---	---

Projections are based on present-day ratings. Stars indicate games played at a neutral location.
Game efficiencies only account for data before a contest has gone analytically final and are adjusted to extract home-court advantage.

CURIOUS TRENDS:

	Montana State does worse vs. clubs that convert well from outside the arc. When playing squads that have an offensive three-point field goal percentage vs. AO greater than 33.52%, Montana State performs above average 23% of the time. Against all other opponents, the team performs better than the norm 75% of the time.
	Montana State performs worse against squads that are typically efficient on offense. When facing teams that have an offensive efficiency rating vs. AO greater than 97.14, Montana State is more efficient than normal 33% of the time. In their other contests, the team is more efficient 82% of the time.
	When playing teams that typically allow more than a fair share of breakaway opportunities, Montana State usually performs better than average. Montana State is more efficient than normal 77% of the time when facing clubs that have a potential point rate allowed off steals vs. AO greater than 11.06. In all other contests, Montana State performs better than average 31% of the time.

LATEST NEWS ITEMS:

	Montana tops Montana State for season sweep (2/23/2020 11:11:00 AM) ... Kendal Manual scored 19 points and Sayeed Pridgett added 15 points and seven rebounds to lead Montana past Montana State 59-54 Saturday for a sweep of the regular-season in-state series. Jared Samuelson checked in with 10 points and seven rebounds for ...
	Belo scores 23 to carry Montana State over Weber State 77-63 (2/16/2020 12:23:00 AM) Colter Peterson, Deseret News BOZEMAN, Mont. (AP) — Jubrile Belo had a season-high 23 points plus 11 rebounds as Montana State defeated Weber State 77-63 on Saturday night. Belo made 9 of 12 shots. Harald Frey had 16 points and 10 assists for Montana State (14-11, 8-6 Big Sky Conference). Borja Fernandez added 14 points. Amin Adamu had 13 points.
	Montana State men’s defensive shift leads to win against Weber State (2/16/2020 12:15:00 AM) Montana State’s head coach was demonstrating to his ... The Bobcats did the same 23 days prior when they beat Weber State in Ogden, Utah, for the first time in 11 years. The strategy worked again and MSU took down the Wildcats 77-63. “It's hard. They still had some looks, they missed them, but it's not out of their offense,” Sprinkle ...
	Belo scores 23 to carry Montana St. over Weber St. 77-63 (2/15/2020 11:20:00 PM) Jubrile Belo had a season-high 23 points plus 11 rebounds as Montana State defeated Weber State 77-63 on Saturday night.
	Portland State sinks MSU men on final basket in thriller (1/11/2020 11:12:00 PM) All season long, Montana State’s players and coaches have discussed the need ... and converted. The Vikings led 77-76 with 2.4 seconds left and hung on to win by that score. “Just wish it was 10 seconds longer,” Sprinkle said. In the Bobcats ...

HASLAMETRICS ALL-PLAY PERCENTAGE RANKING BY DAY: Select data to plot:

HASLAMETRICS TEAM HISTORY: Select data to view:

SUMMARY	Rk	AP%	Rec (WinPct)		RQ	Conference	Pace	Con	SOS	PTF	AFH	ASR

OFFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

DEFENSE	Eff	FTAR	FT%	FGAR	FG%	3PAR	3P%	MRAR	MR%	NPAR	NP%	PPSt	PPSC	SCC%	%3PA	%MRA	%NPA	Prox

SUMMARY	Rk		AP%		Rec (WinPct)		RQ		Conference		Pace		Con		SOS		PTF		AFH		ASR

OFFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox

DEFENSE	Eff		FTAR		FT%		FGAR		FG%		3PAR		3P%		MRAR		MR%		NPAR		NP%		PPSt		PPSC		SCC%		%3PA		%MRA		%NPA		Prox