Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

VCU 28-7 (0.800) | Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Duquesne 13-19 (0.406) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.901 (37^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.634 (133^rd)

0.526 (119^th)

Schedule Strength

0.536 (111^th)

0.361 (34^th)

Record Quality

-0.061 (212^th)

46.82 (43^rd)

Avg. Season Rank

157.35 (153^rd)

-2.97 (303^rd)

Momentum

2.90 (59^th)

-8.69 (74^th)

Consistency

-10.28 (281^st)

-1.57 (286^th)

Away-From-Home

-0.35 (191^st)

65.76 (242^nd)

Pace

64.81 (298^th)

IN POSSESSION

	VCU		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	117.21	54	105.62	118
FTAR	29.15	101	30.81	310
FT%	73.94	117	--	--
FGAR	91.07	31	83.22	32
FG%	44.64	137	43.74	153
3P%	34.00	178	37.08	326
MR%	37.95	154	36.32	127
NP%	61.55	91	55.95	78
PPSt	16.52	21	12.71	220
SCC%	7.37	61	5.71	141
Prox	2.10	319	1.97	289

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		VCU
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	108.01	170	96.62	28
FTAR	27.18	180	28.62	239
FT%	63.55	357	--	--
FGAR	88.55	106	86.10	136
FG%	43.76	179	38.98	15
3P%	34.14	168	30.82	32
MR%	39.36	104	33.26	45
NP%	60.83	109	49.36	4
PPSt	13.57	106	12.52	208
SCC%	5.28	253	6.53	250
Prox	2.13	338	1.93	342

VCU IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, VCU should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The VCU offense is ranked #54 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #118 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The VCU offense leans solidly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the VCU offense will be 42.1% three-pointers (3.3% above the D1 average), 21.9% mid-range jumpers (2.8% below the D1 average), and 36.0% near-proximity twos (0.6% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: VCU rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #137 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 153rd nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the VCU offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the Duquesne defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects VCU to shoot 36.3% from three (2.2% above the D1 average), 36.4% from the mid-range (1.1% below the D1 average), 58.9% from near-proximity locations (0.1% above the D1 average), and 44.4% overall (0.5% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: VCU may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. VCU has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They're also one of the better NCAA teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #61 in the country in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Duquesne, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly worse in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 141st in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, VCU is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Duquesne defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #106 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #32 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the VCU offense here. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (101st in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (73.9%, 117th in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Duquesne defense predictably commits a significant number of fouls, ranking 310th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The VCU defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Duquesne offense in this particular matchup. VCU is currently 28th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #170 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense leans solidly toward putting up more outside shots, while the VCU defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the VCU defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 38.6% three-pointers (0.1% below the D1 average), 26.3% mid-range jumpers (1.6% above the D1 average), and 35.0% near-proximity twos (1.6% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 179th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the VCU defense has been one of the best in the country when it comes to defensive field goal percentage, nationally rated 15th in that category. The VCU defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. We expect Duquesne to shoot 31.4% from behind the arc (2.7% below the D1 average), 35.2% from mid-range locations (2.3% below the D1 average), 49.8% from near-proximity (9.0% below the D1 average), and 38.8% overall (5.1% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 253rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, VCU has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they've been a little bit worse when trying to suppress foes' second-chance conversion rates (rated #250 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
	TURNOVERS: The VCU defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. Offensively, Duquesne rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the intrusive VCU D will typically be up in your grill and can force several turnovers. They are masters at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 21st in that category).
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #180 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (63.5%, ranked #357 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive VCU defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 239th in the NCAA this season.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 298th nationally in game pace, while VCU currently ranks 242nd.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: VCU may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Duquesne appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (59th in the country in positive momentum), while VCU (303rd) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
	CONSISTENCY: VCU is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams (74th nationally in consistency), while Duquesne (281st in consistency) is definitely more on the erratic side.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne could potentially put a scare into VCU, but the latter is the smart choice if all goes as planned. VCU 73.43, Duquesne 61.80.