TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
VCU  10-3 (0.769)  |  Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 29, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.837 (60th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.556 (163rd)
0.416 (243rd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.481 (157th)
0.214 (87th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.151 (249th)
59.35 (57th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
182.75 (185th)
0.20 (164th)
   Momentum
  
4.84 (11th)
-7.95 (90th)
   Consistency
  
-8.50 (137th)
-2.23 (289th)
   Away-From-Home   
-0.83 (215th)
67.13 (198th)
Pace
  
64.18 (343rd)
IN POSSESSION
VCU
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 109.03 143 105.20 134
FTAR 29.18 97 31.73 326
FT% 67.14 295 -- --
FGAR 88.30 84 84.72 117
FG% 43.30 225 42.13 82
3P% 30.55 305 37.16 302
MR% 40.56 207 41.36 175
NP% 64.74 38 48.44 9
PPSt 16.66 37 13.81 263
SCC% 7.07 65 3.89 32
Prox 2.17 343 2.03 185
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
VCU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.19 216 92.48 13
FTAR 26.75 179 26.93 193
FT% 61.79 357 -- --
FGAR 88.85 67 80.00 15
FG% 41.41 298 41.30 63
3P% 35.43 129 31.36 74
MR% 42.23 145 36.69 64
NP% 50.91 333 53.55 76
PPSt 12.96 166 11.89 153
SCC% 3.89 318 6.00 211
Prox 2.19 357 1.94 339
VCU IN POSSESSION:
There isn't much of an advantage either way here when VCU is in possession of the basketball. Duquesne is currently 134th in the country in defensive efficiency, while VCU nationally comes in at #143 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The VCU offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the VCU offense will be 44.4% three-pointers (5.4% above the D1 average), 27.7% mid-range jumpers (1.7% above the D1 average), and 27.9% near-proximity twos (7.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: VCU has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 225th nationally in that category this year. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #82 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Duquesne defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects VCU to shoot 32.5% from three (1.7% below the D1 average), 40.7% from the mid-range (0.6% below the D1 average), 55.3% from near-proximity locations (2.5% below the D1 average), and 41.1% overall (3.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. VCU lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. However, they are quite proficient at scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 65th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #32 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. Offensively, VCU rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: VCU should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #97 in free throw attempt rate), though they're not one of the better shooting teams from there (67.1%, ranked #295 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 326th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The VCU defense is very likely going to create all kinds of problems for the Duquesne offense. This site rates VCU to be 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #216 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense leans strongly toward putting up more outside shots, while the VCU defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the VCU defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 37.8% three-pointers (1.2% below the D1 average), 35.2% mid-range jumpers (9.2% above the D1 average), and 27.1% near-proximity twos (8.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 298th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the VCU defense sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 63rd in the country in that category. The VCU defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. We expect Duquesne to shoot 33.5% from behind the arc (0.7% below the D1 average), 38.1% from mid-range locations (3.3% below the D1 average), 45.1% from near-proximity (12.7% below the D1 average), and 38.3% overall (6.1% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: VCU may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. On the other hand, they are actually far from competent converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 318th nationally in that category. VCU, meanwhile, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #211 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: Duquesne may struggle with turnovers against this VCU defense. On offense, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 263rd in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the VCU defense is very aggressive and has the potential to come away with a plethora of steals. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #37 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #15 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. The Duquesne offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (179th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, eighth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the aggressive VCU defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 193rd in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. VCU (198th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duquesne (343rd) would rather maintain a slower pace.
AWAY-FROM-HOME: VCU may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked 11th in the country in positive momentum.
CONSISTENCY: VCU is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 90th nationally in consistency. Duquesne rates more in the middle of the pack.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne definitely has a chance, but VCU is the right pick here. VCU 68.04, Duquesne 58.00.