Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Houston 35-5 (0.875) | Big 12
-- VS. --
Duke 35-4 (0.897) | ACC

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.997 (2^nd)

All-Play Percentage

1.000 (1^st)

0.780 (9^th)

Schedule Strength

0.712 (43^rd)

0.648 (2^nd)

Record Quality

0.618 (4^th)

1.56 (1^st)

Avg. Season Rank

2.59 (3^rd)

-0.02 (179^th)

Momentum

0.09 (173^rd)

-9.84 (228^th)

Consistency

-11.21 (340^th)

-2.53 (335^th)

Away-From-Home

-0.21 (174^th)

61.68 (359^th)

Pace

64.90 (293^rd)

IN POSSESSION

	HOU		DUKE
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	126.86	7	91.34	5
FTAR	27.39	168	20.00	3
FT%	74.96	86	--	--
FGAR	96.80	1	90.08	304
FG%	47.82	33	36.59	3
3P%	41.63	1	30.98	34
MR%	39.26	107	28.38	1
NP%	67.38	10	50.23	6
PPSt	14.27	68	9.34	25
SCC%	8.00	31	4.58	40
Prox	2.07	261	2.06	93

IN POSSESSION

	DUKE		HOU
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	133.49	1	87.00	1
FTAR	32.90	18	25.28	103
FT%	78.54	19	--	--
FGAR	90.43	39	82.49	18
FG%	51.19	2	35.52	1
3P%	40.30	4	28.56	7
MR%	43.57	18	29.46	6
NP%	65.00	28	49.84	5
PPSt	13.25	119	9.15	19
SCC%	8.72	9	4.25	22
Prox	2.00	125	2.11	33

HOUSTON IN POSSESSION:
The Houston offense and the Duke defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. Duke is currently fifth in the country in defensive efficiency, while Houston nationally comes in at #7 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Houston offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duke defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duke defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Houston offense will be 34.2% three-pointers (4.5% below the D1 average), 41.2% mid-range jumpers (16.5% above the D1 average), and 24.6% near-proximity twos (12.0% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Houston has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #33 team in overall field goal percentage this season. The Duke defense, meanwhile, has been ruthless and relentless, repeatedly shutting down opposing shooters and ranking as our #3 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Houston offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the Duke defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Houston to shoot 38.2% from three (4.1% above the D1 average), 33.5% from the mid-range (4.0% below the D1 average), 57.7% from near-proximity locations (1.1% below the D1 average), and 41.0% overall (2.9% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Houston has to be considered a legitimate force on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 31st nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Duke, is extremely stout on the defensive glass, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #40 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
	TURNOVERS: Houston will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Duke defense. Offensively, Houston protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their ratings for field goal attempt rate (ranked first in the country) and potential quick points allowed off of steals (19th) can both be considered exquisite. Meanwhile, the Duke D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 119th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: Houston will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #168 in free throw attempt rate), though they're above-average shooters from there (75.0%, ranked #86 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Duke D does an exceptional job keeping foes off the foul line and ranks third in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUKE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when Duke is on offense. This website respectively ranks each of the two teams #1 in the categories of offensive and defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Duke offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Houston defense typically allows several more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Houston defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duke offense will be 44.8% three-pointers (6.0% above the D1 average), 17.9% mid-range jumpers (6.8% below the D1 average), and 37.4% near-proximity twos (0.8% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duke is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked second in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Houston defense has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating first in the country in defensive field goal percentage. From a ratings perspective on this end of the floor, the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly at all three levels. We expect Duke to shoot 35.1% from behind the arc (1.0% above the D1 average), 32.2% from mid-range locations (5.2% below the D1 average), 58.8% from near-proximity (a touch above the D1 average), and 43.5% overall (0.5% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Duke has the fingerprint of a unit that can really hammer the offensive boards at an elite level. To boot, they are sensational at scoring quickly off of any second-chance opportunities they obtain (nationally rated #9 in that department). Meanwhile, Houston cleans the defensive glass at an extremely high level, and they're similarly outstanding in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (nationally ranked 22nd in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Duke offense has a small advantage over the Houston defense in the turnover game on this end. On offense, Duke exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 39th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (25th in the country). As for the opposition, the Houston defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #68 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #18 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Duke is a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (18th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.5%, 19th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Houston defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 103rd nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Houston is sixth from the bottom in the country in game pace, while Duke presently ranks 293rd.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: Houston may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Duke wins the battle for positive momentum here, but the analytical edge shouldn't really be classified as a significantly impactful one.
	CONSISTENCY: Duke is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 340th in the country in consistency. Houston places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
A little overtime perhaps? These two squads are about as evenly matched as they come. Duke 66.80, Houston 66.34.