Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Gonzaga 26-9 (0.743) | West Coast
-- VS. --
Iowa 17-16 (0.515) | Big Ten

Includes games through April 1, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.983 (7^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.807 (71^st)

0.637 (73^rd)

Schedule Strength

0.692 (55^th)

0.371 (31^st)

Record Quality

0.153 (96^th)

9.98 (6^th)

Avg. Season Rank

55.11 (52^nd)

2.36 (74^th)

Momentum

0.54 (155^th)

-9.16 (137^th)

Consistency

-10.01 (249^th)

0.39 (102^nd)

Away-From-Home

-2.76 (339^th)

69.25 (37^th)

Pace

68.41 (65^th)

IN POSSESSION

	GONZ		IOWA
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	126.79	6	107.42	161
FTAR	28.05	142	23.48	49
FT%	80.07	5	--	--
FGAR	90.46	37	88.83	258
FG%	51.23	2	44.19	180
3P%	37.48	32	33.89	165
MR%	46.36	4	38.45	221
NP%	67.70	6	58.97	186
PPSt	13.87	86	10.13	44
SCC%	8.00	32	7.20	318
Prox	1.97	97	2.03	143

IN POSSESSION

	IOWA		GONZ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	120.32	27	95.43	18
FTAR	24.81	277	23.83	61
FT%	70.47	248	--	--
FGAR	89.21	87	85.99	131
FG%	49.90	10	39.34	20
3P%	39.14	9	30.03	19
MR%	42.54	29	33.93	56
NP%	66.09	13	55.63	68
PPSt	12.75	144	9.59	29
SCC%	5.85	189	6.14	202
Prox	2.03	189	2.07	72

GONZAGA IN POSSESSION:
On paper, Gonzaga stands to have a comfortable analytical advantage at this end of the court. This site rates Gonzaga to be sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Iowa is currently our #161 squad in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Gonzaga offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Iowa defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Iowa defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Gonzaga offense will be 35.6% three-pointers (3.0% below the D1 average), 27.1% mid-range jumpers (2.4% above the D1 average), and 37.3% near-proximity twos (0.6% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Gonzaga has been absolutely outstanding converting shots from the floor this season (#2 in overall field goal percentage). The Iowa defense, meanwhile, has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 180th nationally in that category. The Gonzaga offense sports a comfortable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Gonzaga to shoot 37.1% from three (3.0% above the D1 average), 47.5% from the mid-range (10.0% above the D1 average), 67.7% from near-proximity locations (8.9% above the D1 average), and 51.3% overall (7.3% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Gonzaga should have a monstrous rebounding edge at this end. Gonzaga has to be considered a legitimate force on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 32nd in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, Iowa, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, but they've been very ineffective stopping opponents from scoring on offensive putbacks (ranked #318 in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
	TURNOVERS: The Gonzaga offense has a small advantage over the Iowa defense in the turnover game on this end. Offensively, Gonzaga protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 37th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (29th in the country). As for the opposition, the Iowa defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
	FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. The Gonzaga offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (142nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (80.1%, ranked #5 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Iowa D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking 49th in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

IOWA IN POSSESSION:
The Iowa offense and the Gonzaga defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. Gonzaga is currently 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Iowa nationally comes in at #27 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Iowa offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Gonzaga defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Gonzaga defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Iowa offense will be 40.2% three-pointers (1.5% above the D1 average), 27.4% mid-range jumpers (2.7% above the D1 average), and 32.4% near-proximity twos (4.2% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Iowa is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked tenth in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Gonzaga defense has done exceptional work to keep opponents' shooting percentages in check (nationally ranked #20 in defensive field goal conversion rate). On this end of the court, the Iowa offense has an analytical edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect Iowa to shoot 35.3% from behind the arc (1.2% above the D1 average), 38.3% from mid-range locations (0.8% above the D1 average), 64.2% from near-proximity (5.4% above the D1 average), and 45.4% overall (1.5% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Gonzaga may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Iowa is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're similarly run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 189th in that category). Meanwhile, Gonzaga rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, but they perform slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #202 in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Iowa offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Gonzaga defense. On offense, Iowa exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 87th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (44th in the country). Meanwhile, the Gonzaga defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 86th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: The Iowa offense won't see the free throw line very often in this contest. They're typically a team that isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #277 in free throw attempt rate), and they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (70.5%, 248th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Gonzaga defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 61st in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: There should be a fairly lively tempo when these two teams meet. Neither of these squads has an issue with running in transition. Gonzaga is 37th in the country in game pace, while Iowa currently ranks 65th.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: We expect a potential performance bump for Gonzaga here. They've performed better away from home this year than they have at home. Additionally, they're playing vs. Iowa, a team that has been rated far more inefficient on the road than on their home floor this season.
	MOMENTUM: Gonzaga has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 74th in the country in positive momentum.
	CONSISTENCY: Iowa is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 249th in the country in consistency. Gonzaga places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
We have Gonzaga projected to win by double-digits here. They are clearly the smart pick. Gonzaga 89.39, Iowa 76.53.