|
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne 5-8 (0.385) | Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
UNCG 7-6 (0.538) | Southern
|
|
Includes games through December 28, 2024. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
|
0.573 (156th)
|
|
0.614 (141st)
|
0.494 (132nd)
|
|
0.558 (71st)
|
-0.141 (242nd)
|
|
-0.029 (187th)
|
183.11 (185th)
|
|
130.88 (129th)
|
4.78 (11th)
|
|
-2.16 (310th)
|
-8.28 (114th)
|
|
-8.38 (126th)
|
-0.91 (223rd)
|
|
-0.97 (225th)
|
64.16 (340th)
|
|
64.11 (342nd)
|
|
|
IN POSSESSION
|
DUQ
|
UNCG
|
Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
104.61 |
207 |
103.24 |
111 |
FTAR |
26.83 |
173 |
25.89 |
159 |
FT% |
61.79 |
358 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
88.89 |
72 |
91.17 |
339 |
FG% |
41.58 |
290 |
40.52 |
47 |
3P% |
35.59 |
118 |
28.62 |
14 |
MR% |
42.30 |
149 |
41.63 |
178 |
NP% |
51.12 |
331 |
52.59 |
60 |
PPSt |
12.77 |
170 |
11.04 |
98 |
SCC% |
3.99 |
314 |
5.62 |
181 |
Prox |
2.19 |
353 |
2.03 |
193 |
|
|
IN POSSESSION
|
UNCG
|
DUQ
|
Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
104.46 |
211 |
104.79 |
131 |
FTAR |
25.50 |
218 |
31.82 |
329 |
FT% |
73.89 |
126 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
87.49 |
113 |
84.81 |
113 |
FG% |
41.34 |
299 |
41.85 |
78 |
3P% |
34.62 |
160 |
36.96 |
293 |
MR% |
33.48 |
356 |
41.02 |
164 |
NP% |
55.16 |
237 |
48.03 |
10 |
PPSt |
12.32 |
193 |
13.70 |
260 |
SCC% |
3.88 |
318 |
3.86 |
31 |
Prox |
2.10 |
283 |
2.03 |
195 |
|
|
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION: The UNCG defense appears to have a small advantage on the Duquesne offense at this end of the court. UNCG is currently 111th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #207 in offensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the UNCG defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the UNCG defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 43.0% three-pointers (4.0% above the D1 average), 31.1% mid-range jumpers (5.0% above the D1 average), and 25.9% near-proximity twos (9.0% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has certainly not converted field goals at a solid clip this season (rated our #290 team in overall field goal percentage). The UNCG defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #47 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in mid-range shooting, while the UNCG defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 30.8% from three (3.4% below the D1 average), 42.4% from the mid-range (0.9% above the D1 average), 44.8% from near-proximity locations (12.9% below the D1 average), and 38.0% overall (6.3% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: UNCG may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. However, they're one of the weaker D1 teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #314 in the country in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, UNCG, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #181 in the country in that department). | | TURNOVERS: The UNCG defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. Offensively, Duquesne has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the UNCG D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. | | FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #358 in Division I). Meanwhile, the UNCG D has a defensive free throw attempt rate that lands somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack (ranked 159th nationally in that category). |
UNCG IN POSSESSION: When analytically matched up against the Duquesne defense, this UNCG offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. The Duquesne defense is ranked #131 in Division I, while UNCG comes in nationally at #211 on offense. | SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The UNCG offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the UNCG offense will be 40.0% three-pointers (0.9% above the D1 average), 28.9% mid-range jumpers (2.9% above the D1 average), and 31.1% near-proximity twos (3.8% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UNCG has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 299th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 78th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the UNCG offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect UNCG to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc (2.9% above the D1 average), 34.8% from mid-range locations (6.7% below the D1 average), 45.0% from near-proximity (12.7% below the D1 average), and 38.9% overall (5.4% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Duquesne has an enormous rebounding advantage at this end. UNCG rates as a team that shouldn't be considered a force on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are well below-average at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 318th in that category). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #31 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage). | | TURNOVERS: The UNCG offense has a small advantage over the Duquesne defense in the turnover game on this end. On offense, UNCG exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 113th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is more than satisfactory (98th in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. | | FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. The UNCG offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #218 in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (73.9%, 126th in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 329th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: The tempo in this contest should be as slow as molasses in the winter. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. UNCG is 342nd nationally in game pace, while Duquesne currently ranks 340th. | | AWAY-FROM-HOME: The analytics fail to reveal a significant advantage for either team in this category. | | MOMENTUM: Duquesne has a sizeable momentum edge here. They come into this contest playing above their norm (11th in the country in positive momentum), while UNCG (310th) has performed a bit below their own standards recently. | | CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 114th nationally in consistency. UNCG rates more in the middle of the pack. |
THE VERDICT: The outcome is very much in doubt here. Every possession is going to count. We'll pick UNCG by a very slim margin. UNCG 62.13, Duquesne 61.08. |
|
|
|