Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Duquesne 13-19 (0.406) | Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Dayton 23-11 (0.676) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.634 (133^rd)

All-Play Percentage

0.791 (78^th)

0.536 (111^th)

Schedule Strength

0.599 (88^th)

-0.061 (212^th)

Record Quality

0.278 (55^th)

157.35 (153^rd)

Avg. Season Rank

58.25 (58^th)

2.90 (59^th)

Momentum

-0.39 (196^th)

-10.28 (281^st)

Consistency

-10.67 (320^th)

-0.35 (191^st)

Away-From-Home

0.68 (72^nd)

64.81 (298^th)

Pace

65.40 (269^th)

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		UD
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	108.01	170	105.97	125
FTAR	27.18	180	26.44	142
FT%	63.55	357	--	--
FGAR	88.55	106	85.92	121
FG%	43.76	179	43.44	139
3P%	34.14	168	33.97	169
MR%	39.36	104	32.82	34
NP%	60.83	109	60.87	258
PPSt	13.57	106	10.93	92
SCC%	5.28	253	5.53	118
Prox	2.13	338	2.03	152

IN POSSESSION

	UD		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	116.00	62	105.62	118
FTAR	30.86	58	30.81	310
FT%	75.20	79	--	--
FGAR	86.84	195	83.22	32
FG%	45.65	96	43.74	153
3P%	36.55	61	37.08	326
MR%	34.56	285	36.32	127
NP%	60.45	118	55.95	78
PPSt	14.22	69	12.71	220
SCC%	5.41	240	5.71	141
Prox	2.03	196	1.97	289

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the Dayton defense, this Duquesne offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. Dayton is currently 125th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #170 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Dayton defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Dayton defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 44.2% three-pointers (5.5% above the D1 average), 25.0% mid-range jumpers (0.3% above the D1 average), and 30.7% near-proximity twos (5.9% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 179th nationally in that category this year. The Dayton defense, meanwhile, has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 139th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has the ratings advantage in near-proximity shooting, the Dayton defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 34.0% from three (0.1% below the D1 average), 34.9% from the mid-range (2.6% below the D1 average), 63.3% from near-proximity locations (4.4% above the D1 average), and 43.2% overall (0.8% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Dayton may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 253rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Dayton, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise done fairly acceptable work containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #118 in that department).
	TURNOVERS: The Dayton defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. On offense, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Dayton defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #69 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #121 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #180 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (63.5%, eighth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Dayton defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 142nd in the NCAA this season.

DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Dayton should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Dayton offense is ranked #62 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #118 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Dayton offense leans slightly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Dayton offense will be 37.9% three-pointers (0.9% below the D1 average), 22.5% mid-range jumpers (2.2% below the D1 average), and 39.7% near-proximity twos (3.1% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #96 team in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #153 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Dayton to shoot 39.7% from behind the arc (5.6% above the D1 average), 33.5% from mid-range locations (4.0% below the D1 average), 57.9% from near-proximity (1.0% below the D1 average), and 45.5% overall (1.5% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Dayton is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #240 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Duquesne, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #141 in the country in that department).
	TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Dayton exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 92nd in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #106 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #32 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: The Dayton offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (58th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (75.2%, ranked #79 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Duquesne defense predictably commits a significant number of fouls, ranking 310th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 298th in the country in game pace, while Dayton presently ranks 269th.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: Dayton may fare better than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 59th in the country in positive momentum.
	CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Dayton ranks 320th nationally in consistency, while Duquesne is presently 281st in that category.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne will have a decent shot to come away with a victory, but we're still going with Dayton in a close one. Dayton 72.14, Duquesne 67.11.