TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Dayton  10-3 (0.769)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 29, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.556 (163rd)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.915 (32nd)
0.481 (157th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.594 (39th)
-0.151 (249th)
   Record Quality
  
0.319 (50th)
182.75 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
38.74 (34th)
4.84 (11th)
   Momentum
  
-0.85 (243rd)
-8.50 (137th)
   Consistency
  
-8.42 (131st)
-0.83 (215th)
   Away-From-Home   
2.45 (20th)
64.18 (343rd)
   Pace
65.43 (286th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UD
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.19 216 100.61 80
FTAR 26.75 179 26.23 169
FT% 61.79 357 -- --
FGAR 88.85 67 84.36 101
FG% 41.41 298 40.95 55
3P% 35.43 129 32.41 109
MR% 42.23 145 30.88 4
NP% 50.91 333 60.27 251
PPSt 12.96 166 9.24 24
SCC% 3.89 318 4.82 99
Prox 2.19 357 2.08 99
IN POSSESSION
UD
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 120.52 24 105.20 134
FTAR 31.24 51 31.73 326
FT% 72.89 150 -- --
FGAR 86.34 162 84.72 117
FG% 49.58 17 42.13 82
3P% 36.30 99 37.16 302
MR% 43.55 114 41.36 175
NP% 65.80 19 48.44 9
PPSt 14.02 120 13.81 263
SCC% 6.41 115 3.89 32
Prox 1.99 105 2.03 185
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Dayton defense. This site rates Dayton to be 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #216 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Dayton defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Dayton defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 46.0% three-pointers (7.0% above the D1 average), 31.4% mid-range jumpers (5.4% above the D1 average), and 22.7% near-proximity twos (12.4% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has certainly not converted field goals at a solid clip this season (rated our #298 team in overall field goal percentage). The Dayton defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #55 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Dayton defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 33.9% from three (0.3% below the D1 average), 33.3% from the mid-range (8.1% below the D1 average), 53.2% from near-proximity locations (4.6% below the D1 average), and 38.1% overall (6.3% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Dayton would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. On the other hand, they are actually far from competent converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 318th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Dayton, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 99th in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Dayton defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Duquesne has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 263rd in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Dayton D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #120 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #101 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (179th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #357 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Dayton D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 169th in the country in that category.

DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
The Dayton offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the Duquesne defense in this matchup. Dayton is currently 24th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #134 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Dayton offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duquesne defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Dayton offense will be 34.8% three-pointers (4.2% below the D1 average), 28.8% mid-range jumpers (2.8% above the D1 average), and 36.4% near-proximity twos (1.4% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 17th in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 82nd in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Dayton to shoot 39.6% from behind the arc (5.4% above the D1 average), 43.0% from mid-range locations (1.6% above the D1 average), 58.5% from near-proximity (0.7% above the D1 average), and 47.5% overall (3.1% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Dayton has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 115th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #32 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: Dayton will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Duquesne defense. Offensively, Dayton exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly stellar, as the squad places 24th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: Dayton should be able to get to the foul line early and often in this contest. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #51 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.9%, 150th in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 326th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Nobody will be in a huge rush to score in a contest such as this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 343rd in the country in game pace, while Dayton presently ranks 286th.
AWAY-FROM-HOME: Dayton may fare better than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been far superior to their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has a sizeable momentum edge here. They come into this contest playing above their norm (11th in the country in positive momentum), while Dayton (243rd) has performed a bit below their own standards recently.
CONSISTENCY: Dayton is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.

THE VERDICT:
It may not be a blowout, but a double-digit margin of victory is in the forecast here. Dayton 73.73, Duquesne 59.85.