TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Little Rock  7-5 (0.583)  |  Ohio Valley
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.573 (156th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.416 (213th)
0.494 (132nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.407 (267th)
-0.141 (242nd)
   Record Quality
  
-0.023 (186th)
183.11 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
254.23 (252nd)
4.78 (11th)
   Momentum
  
-1.48 (271st)
-8.28 (114th)
   Consistency
  
-9.84 (251st)
-0.91 (223rd)
   Away-From-Home   
0.54 (101st)
64.16 (340th)
   Pace
67.28 (188th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UALR
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 101.55 95
FTAR 26.83 173 31.27 318
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 84.51 104
FG% 41.58 290 39.78 32
3P% 35.59 118 30.60 51
MR% 42.30 149 33.61 21
NP% 51.12 331 57.86 176
PPSt 12.77 170 20.44 361
SCC% 3.99 314 4.66 85
Prox 2.19 353 2.14 27
IN POSSESSION
UALR
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 95.86 337 104.79 131
FTAR 23.55 278 31.82 329
FT% 65.19 320 -- --
FGAR 81.86 333 84.81 113
FG% 42.89 240 41.85 78
3P% 35.73 111 36.96 293
MR% 33.83 352 41.02 164
NP% 62.99 59 48.03 10
PPSt 13.82 123 13.70 260
SCC% 3.67 325 3.86 31
Prox 2.06 215 2.03 195
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Little Rock defense. This site rates Little Rock to be 95th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #207 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Little Rock defense similarly surrenders several more opportunities from the outside. Against the Little Rock defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 50.8% three-pointers (11.8% above the D1 average), 27.4% mid-range jumpers (1.3% above the D1 average), and 21.8% near-proximity twos (13.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Little Rock defense sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 32nd in the country in that category. The Little Rock defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 32.3% from three (1.8% below the D1 average), 35.8% from the mid-range (5.6% below the D1 average), 50.0% from near-proximity locations (7.8% below the D1 average), and 37.1% overall (7.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Little Rock will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Little Rock, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they have been a wee bit better containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #85 in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Little Rock defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. When in possession, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Little Rock defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #123 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #104 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, seventh from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Little Rock defense predictably commits a ridiculous number of fouls, ranking 318th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

LITTLE ROCK IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne defense is very likely going to create all kinds of problems for the Little Rock offense. Duquesne is currently 131st in the country in defensive efficiency, while Little Rock nationally comes in at #337 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Little Rock offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Little Rock offense will be 30.9% three-pointers (8.2% below the D1 average), 43.5% mid-range jumpers (17.4% above the D1 average), and 25.7% near-proximity twos (9.3% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Little Rock hasn't been one of the better shooting D1 teams this season, ranking 240th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Little Rock offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Little Rock to shoot 39.3% from behind the arc (5.1% above the D1 average), 34.7% from mid-range locations (6.8% below the D1 average), 51.0% from near-proximity (6.8% below the D1 average), and 40.3% overall (4.0% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne should easily control the boards on this end of the floor. Little Rock appears to be a team that will struggle most nights on the offensive boards. Additionally, they are far from competent converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 325th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Duquesne, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: Little Rock may struggle with turnovers against this Duquesne defense. Offensively, Little Rock is very irresponsible with the basketball and will give it away often. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 333rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is embarrassingly poor (fourth from the bottom in the country). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Little Rock isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #278 in free throw attempt rate), and they're quite terrible at sinking their foul shots (65.2%, ranked #320 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 329th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. Little Rock (188th in the NCAA in game pace) adopts an intermediate tempo, but Duquesne (340th) is more likely to pump the brakes.
AWAY-FROM-HOME: Little Rock may fare better than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has a sizeable momentum edge here. They come into this contest playing above their norm (11th in the country in positive momentum), while Little Rock (271st) has performed a bit below their own standards recently.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams (114th nationally in consistency), while Little Rock (251st in consistency) is definitely more on the erratic side.

THE VERDICT:
We foresee Duquesne getting the win here, but the margin of victory should not be excessive. Duquesne 63.09, Little Rock 59.81.