Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

UCF 20-17 (0.541) | Big 12
-- VS. --
Villanova 21-15 (0.583) | Big East

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.837 (60^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.882 (44^th)

0.743 (24^th)

Schedule Strength

0.659 (64^th)

0.216 (71^st)

Record Quality

0.216 (69^th)

68.27 (66^th)

Avg. Season Rank

51.65 (51^st)

2.40 (72^nd)

Momentum

0.92 (137^th)

-8.94 (102^nd)

Consistency

-10.80 (328^th)

0.28 (112^th)

Away-From-Home

-1.47 (278^th)

70.70 (9^th)

Pace

62.96 (358^th)

IN POSSESSION

	UCF		NOVA
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	118.46	45	102.12	76
FTAR	30.53	63	23.82	61
FT%	78.26	24	--	--
FGAR	90.05	54	88.54	242
FG%	45.46	105	40.99	60
3P%	35.18	108	32.79	104
MR%	38.92	119	37.73	197
NP%	59.63	143	55.26	59
PPSt	15.49	35	9.51	28
SCC%	7.54	51	4.01	12
Prox	2.01	165	2.13	18

IN POSSESSION

	NOVA		UCF
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	121.42	21	104.94	107
FTAR	27.70	158	26.86	163
FT%	80.81	2	--	--
FGAR	90.20	48	88.70	250
FG%	46.20	77	42.05	89
3P%	39.03	10	31.07	35
MR%	40.04	79	38.42	225
NP%	62.96	60	55.73	74
PPSt	9.90	301	10.56	65
SCC%	5.84	194	7.30	324
Prox	2.16	353	2.01	207

UCF IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, UCF should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. UCF is currently 45th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Villanova nationally comes in at #76 in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The UCF offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Villanova defense typically allows several more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Villanova defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the UCF offense will be 44.6% three-pointers (5.9% above the D1 average), 22.1% mid-range jumpers (2.6% below the D1 average), and 33.2% near-proximity twos (3.3% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UCF has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #105 team in overall field goal percentage. The Villanova defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #60 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the UCF offense has the ratings advantage in mid-range shooting, the Villanova defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects UCF to shoot 33.8% from three (0.3% below the D1 average), 39.2% from the mid-range (1.8% above the D1 average), 56.6% from near-proximity locations (2.3% below the D1 average), and 42.6% overall (1.4% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Villanova may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. UCF has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They're also one of the better NCAA teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #51 in the country in that category. Meanwhile, Villanova rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they're likewise top-notch in the category of defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #12 in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Villanova defense will present no trouble at all for UCF here. On offense, UCF exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 54th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (65th in the country). Meanwhile, the Villanova defense won't typically generate ball-security issues for opposing offenses. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #301 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#242 in the nation).
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. The UCF offense has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #63 in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.3%, ranked #24 in Division I). As for the opposition, the conservative Villanova defense predictably does a fine job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 61st in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

VILLANOVA IN POSSESSION:
The Villanova offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the UCF defense at this end of the floor. The Villanova offense is ranked #21 in Division I, while UCF comes in nationally at #107 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Villanova offense leans strongly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the UCF defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the UCF defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Villanova offense will be 43.7% three-pointers (5.0% above the D1 average), 26.8% mid-range jumpers (2.1% above the D1 average), and 29.5% near-proximity twos (7.0% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Villanova is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 77th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the UCF defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #89 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Villanova offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Villanova to shoot 36.5% from behind the arc (2.4% above the D1 average), 40.9% from mid-range locations (3.5% above the D1 average), 59.1% from near-proximity (0.2% above the D1 average), and 44.3% overall (0.4% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Villanova may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. Villanova is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're similarly a relatively average unit, rated 194th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. UCF, meanwhile, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, but they've performed far worse attempting to limit foes' putback conversion rates (ranked 324th in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
	TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Villanova routinely handles the ball with care. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 48th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (28th in the country). As for the opposition, the UCF defense exhibits a fair amount of pressure, which can occasionally create havoc for opposing offenses. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 35th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Villanova is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (158th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (80.8%, second in the country). Meanwhile, the aggressive UCF defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 163rd in the NCAA this season.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. UCF (ninth in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Villanova (seventh from the bottom) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: We expect a potential performance bump for UCF here. They've performed better away from home this year than they have at home. Additionally, they're playing vs. Villanova, a team that has been rated more inefficient on the road than on their home floor this season.
	MOMENTUM: UCF has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 72nd in the country in positive momentum.
	CONSISTENCY: UCF is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams (102nd nationally in consistency), while Villanova (328th in consistency) is definitely more on the erratic side.

THE VERDICT:
Expect this to come down to the last few possessions. Villanova gets the victory by a narrow margin. Villanova 78.69, UCF 75.88.