TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Towson  8-9 (0.471)  |  CAA
-- VS. --
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 11, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.427 (208th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.595 (148th)
0.504 (126th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.503 (129th)
-0.031 (195th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.071 (210th)
192.07 (193rd)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
175.80 (174th)
1.14 (113th)
   Momentum
  
7.20 (1st)
-9.11 (172nd)
   Consistency
  
-10.24 (282nd)
0.00 (138th)
   Away-From-Home   
-1.55 (258th)
62.88 (354th)
   Pace
  
63.81 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
TOW
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.94 209 105.62 144
FTAR 24.92 261 32.74 328
FT% 65.98 326 -- --
FGAR 93.32 10 84.21 82
FG% 41.38 284 42.41 113
3P% 32.46 229 36.84 318
MR% 38.73 266 40.83 171
NP% 53.44 283 50.56 29
PPSt 12.13 190 12.22 175
SCC% 6.54 102 4.39 52
Prox 2.03 178 2.05 158
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
TOW
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.84 173 109.61 238
FTAR 26.49 210 28.73 238
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.67 32 85.68 137
FG% 42.49 238 44.67 207
3P% 34.76 113 36.13 296
MR% 42.79 116 41.20 184
NP% 54.91 242 56.00 126
PPSt 12.05 192 12.14 166
SCC% 4.86 266 5.22 127
Prox 2.17 348 2.02 197
TOWSON IN POSSESSION:
According to the numbers, the Duquesne D should have a modest advantage on Towson at this particular end of the floor. The Duquesne defense is ranked #144 in Division I, while Towson comes in nationally at #209 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Towson offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Towson offense will be 34.1% three-pointers (4.5% below the D1 average), 36.0% mid-range jumpers (9.5% above the D1 average), and 29.9% near-proximity twos (5.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Towson has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #284 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 113th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Towson offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Towson to shoot 35.5% from three (2.0% above the D1 average), 39.0% from the mid-range (2.1% below the D1 average), 46.3% from near-proximity locations (11.1% below the D1 average), and 40.0% overall (3.8% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Towson is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #102 in that department). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been solid squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 52nd in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Towson offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Duquesne defense. When in possession, Towson is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Towson offense isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #261 in free throw attempt rate), and they're quite terrible at sinking their foul shots (66.0%, ranked #326 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 328th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
When pitted against the Towson defense, the Duquesne offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. Duquesne is currently 173rd in the country in offensive efficiency, while Towson nationally comes in at #238 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Duquesne offense leans strongly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the Towson defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the Towson defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 43.9% three-pointers (5.3% above the D1 average), 28.2% mid-range jumpers (1.7% above the D1 average), and 27.9% near-proximity twos (7.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 238th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Towson defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 207th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Towson defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 37.0% from behind the arc (3.5% above the D1 average), 43.1% from mid-range locations (2.1% above the D1 average), 53.3% from near-proximity (4.1% below the D1 average), and 43.3% overall (0.6% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Towson may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 266th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Towson, meanwhile, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, but they're slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #127 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense has a small advantage over the Towson defense in the turnover game on this end. Offensively, Duquesne rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. As for the opposition, the Towson defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (210th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the Towson D has a defensive free throw attempt rate that lands somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack (ranked 238th nationally in that category).

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a grind-it-out, ultra-slow tempo in this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Towson is 354th in the country in game pace, while Duquesne presently ranks 345th.
AWAY-FROM-HOME: Duquesne may fare worse than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances in front of a home crowd.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is first nationally in positive momentum, while Towson presently ranks 113th.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 282nd in the country in consistency. Towson places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
Two very evenly matched teams here. A basket or two is all that separates them. Duquesne 65.45, Towson 61.80.