Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

UMass 12-20 (0.375) | Atlantic 10
-- VS. --
Richmond 10-22 (0.313) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.391 (222^nd)

All-Play Percentage

0.366 (232^nd)

0.500 (137^th)

Schedule Strength

0.524 (121^st)

-0.113 (237^th)

Record Quality

-0.194 (279^th)

191.49 (188^th)

Avg. Season Rank

210.89 (212^th)

-4.84 (342^nd)

Momentum

2.02 (95^th)

-8.91 (96^th)

Consistency

-9.50 (191^st)

1.06 (35^th)

Away-From-Home

-0.50 (204^th)

68.62 (58^th)

Pace

63.48 (348^th)

IN POSSESSION

	MASS		RICH
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	103.45	245	109.79	212
FTAR	30.24	70	27.76	203
FT%	67.49	326	--	--
FGAR	91.84	20	87.45	197
FG%	40.30	334	43.30	131
3P%	29.19	358	35.92	282
MR%	34.94	269	34.48	70
NP%	53.69	326	60.26	233
PPSt	13.81	88	11.98	166
SCC%	6.17	159	5.49	115
Prox	1.95	52	2.13	16

IN POSSESSION

	RICH		MASS
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	103.75	240	108.56	181
FTAR	23.36	326	28.66	242
FT%	80.55	3	--	--
FGAR	85.73	250	88.13	228
FG%	42.07	261	43.36	136
3P%	32.67	254	34.44	197
MR%	37.86	154	33.97	55
NP%	63.05	58	56.66	100
PPSt	7.68	356	11.93	157
SCC%	3.19	359	6.12	195
Prox	2.20	363	1.98	287

UMASS IN POSSESSION:
According to the numbers, the Richmond D should have a modest advantage on UMass at this particular end of the floor. Richmond is currently 212th in the country in defensive efficiency, while UMass nationally comes in at #245 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The UMass offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Richmond defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Richmond defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the UMass offense will be 39.2% three-pointers (0.5% above the D1 average), 26.5% mid-range jumpers (1.8% above the D1 average), and 34.3% near-proximity twos (2.2% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UMass has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 334th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Richmond defense, meanwhile, has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 131st nationally in that category. The Richmond defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects UMass to shoot 31.9% from three (2.3% below the D1 average), 32.4% from the mid-range (5.1% below the D1 average), 54.3% from near-proximity locations (4.5% below the D1 average), and 39.7% overall (4.3% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Richmond may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. UMass appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're similarly run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 159th in that category). Meanwhile, Richmond has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have been a wee bit better containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #115 in that department).
	TURNOVERS: The Richmond defense likely won't force many turnovers against the UMass offense. On offense, UMass rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. As for the opposition, the Richmond D is very conservative and rarely forces turnovers. Furthermore, they never convert takeaways into quick points, as is evidenced by their #356 ranking in that category.
	FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the UMass offense here. They're usually a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (70th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're quite terrible at sinking their foul shots (67.5%, ranked #326 in Division I). Meanwhile, the conservative Richmond defense is fairly average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 203rd in the country in that category.

RICHMOND IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the UMass defense, this Richmond offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. This site rates UMass to be 181st in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Richmond is currently our #240 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Richmond offense leans strongly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the UMass defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the UMass defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Richmond offense will be 45.1% three-pointers (6.4% above the D1 average), 24.5% mid-range jumpers (0.2% below the D1 average), and 30.4% near-proximity twos (6.2% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Richmond has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #261 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the UMass defense rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #136 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Richmond offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the UMass defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. We expect Richmond to shoot 32.9% from behind the arc (1.2% below the D1 average), 34.9% from mid-range locations (2.5% below the D1 average), 59.5% from near-proximity (0.7% above the D1 average), and 41.5% overall (2.5% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UMass would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Richmond appears to be a team that will struggle most nights on the offensive boards. To boot, they are horrible when it comes to converting their second chance opportunities, ranking sixth from the bottom nationally in that category. UMass, meanwhile, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 195th in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The UMass defense has a small advantage over the Richmond offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, Richmond is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the UMass defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 88th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Richmond is a team that won't see many opportunities at the charity stripe (nationally ranked #326 in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (80.5%, third in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious UMass defense, as expected, will be more likely to foul than most other D1 squads, ranking 242nd in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. UMass (58th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Richmond (348th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: UMass may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Richmond appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (95th in the country in positive momentum), while UMass (342nd) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
	CONSISTENCY: UMass is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 96th nationally in consistency. Richmond rates more in the middle of the pack.

THE VERDICT:
A little overtime perhaps? These two squads are about as evenly matched as they come. UMass 68.84, Richmond 68.62.