Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Boise State 26-11 (0.703) | Mountain West
-- VS. --
Nebraska 21-14 (0.600) | Big Ten

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.854 (54^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.857 (53^rd)

0.616 (82^nd)

Schedule Strength

0.717 (37^th)

0.316 (42^nd)

Record Quality

0.276 (57^th)

55.91 (53^rd)

Avg. Season Rank

56.31 (55^th)

-2.03 (271^st)

Momentum

1.80 (105^th)

-10.39 (295^th)

Consistency

-10.08 (259^th)

-3.02 (350^th)

Away-From-Home

0.96 (44^th)

64.91 (292^nd)

Pace

67.09 (149^th)

IN POSSESSION

	BOIS		NEB
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	119.73	31	98.43	40
FTAR	31.81	41	20.19	4
FT%	78.85	14	--	--
FGAR	88.21	124	88.67	248
FG%	46.85	59	40.20	36
3P%	32.79	246	32.86	110
MR%	39.25	108	34.63	74
NP%	65.40	23	55.82	77
PPSt	10.93	254	12.16	181
SCC%	6.63	110	5.43	110
Prox	2.02	182	2.14	12

IN POSSESSION

	NEB		BOIS
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	115.75	63	102.10	75
FTAR	30.70	59	24.90	89
FT%	75.56	67	--	--
FGAR	85.52	257	85.06	83
FG%	47.01	56	42.92	117
3P%	36.06	75	36.75	316
MR%	38.79	123	32.33	28
NP%	62.71	64	58.30	165
PPSt	12.02	188	8.39	5
SCC%	7.73	40	4.17	18
Prox	2.00	148	2.04	125

BOISE STATE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when Boise State is on offense. Boise State is currently 31st in the country in offensive efficiency, while Nebraska nationally comes in at #40 in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Boise State offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Nebraska defense typically allows several more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Nebraska defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Boise State offense will be 46.4% three-pointers (7.6% above the D1 average), 20.9% mid-range jumpers (3.8% below the D1 average), and 32.7% near-proximity twos (3.8% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Boise State has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #59 team in overall field goal percentage this season. The Nebraska defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #36 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Boise State offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the Nebraska defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. This site expects Boise State to shoot 31.8% from three (2.3% below the D1 average), 35.6% from the mid-range (1.8% below the D1 average), 63.9% from near-proximity locations (5.1% above the D1 average), and 43.1% overall (0.9% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Boise State has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 110th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Nebraska, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 110th in the nation in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Nebraska defense likely won't force many turnovers against the Boise State offense. When in possession, Boise State does a really solid job to protect the basketball and minimize silly turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 124th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (fifth in the country). Meanwhile, the Nebraska defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
	FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Boise State is a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (nationally ranked #41 in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.8%, ranked #14 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Nebraska D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking fourth in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

NEBRASKA IN POSSESSION:
There isn't much of an advantage either way here when Nebraska is in possession of the basketball. This site rates Nebraska to be 63rd in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Boise State is currently our #75 squad in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Nebraska offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Boise State defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Boise State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Nebraska offense will be 39.0% three-pointers (0.3% above the D1 average), 24.4% mid-range jumpers (0.3% below the D1 average), and 36.6% near-proximity twos (a shade above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Nebraska does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 56th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Boise State defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #117 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Nebraska offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Boise State defense has the edge in mid-range shooting. We expect Nebraska to shoot 38.8% from behind the arc (4.7% above the D1 average), 32.9% from mid-range locations (4.6% below the D1 average), 62.6% from near-proximity (3.8% above the D1 average), and 46.0% overall (2.1% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Nebraska seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 40th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Boise State, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they're likewise top-notch in the category of defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #18 in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Nebraska offense has a small advantage over the Boise State defense in the turnover game on this end. Offensively, Nebraska is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Boise State defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #254 ranking in that category.
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Nebraska has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (59th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (75.6%, 67th in the country). Meanwhile, the more reserved Boise State defense predictably does a fine job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 89th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. Nebraska (149th in the NCAA in game pace) adopts an intermediate tempo, but Boise State (292nd) is more likely to pump the brakes.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: We would expect a potential performance bump for Nebraska here. They've fared far better away from home this year than they have at home. Additionally, they're playing against Boise State, who's been performing far more inefficiently away from home this season.
	MOMENTUM: Nebraska appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (105th in the country in positive momentum), while Boise State (271st) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
	CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Boise State ranks 295th in the country in consistency, while Nebraska is currently 259th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
Our analytical projection has these two teams going right down to the wire. Very little separates them, so things may not be able to be resolved in regulation. Nebraska 72.41, Boise State 71.85.