Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Florida 36-4 (0.900) | SEC
-- VS. --
Auburn 32-6 (0.842) | SEC

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.994 (3^rd)

All-Play Percentage

0.992 (4^th)

0.753 (19^th)

Schedule Strength

0.804 (3^rd)

0.661 (1^st)

Record Quality

0.625 (3^rd)

9.76 (6^th)

Avg. Season Rank

2.45 (2^nd)

-0.10 (182^nd)

Momentum

-3.24 (313^th)

-9.39 (176^th)

Consistency

-8.87 (93^rd)

-0.65 (218^th)

Away-From-Home

-0.53 (208^th)

69.20 (41^st)

Pace

66.76 (178^th)

IN POSSESSION

	FLA		AUB
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	129.21	2	91.97	7
FTAR	33.53	11	28.41	231
FT%	72.99	150	--	--
FGAR	89.69	72	84.52	60
FG%	49.96	7	37.27	6
3P%	38.49	18	28.12	4
MR%	37.62	167	31.82	20
NP%	68.36	4	50.35	7
PPSt	14.61	54	9.82	36
SCC%	8.01	30	4.59	41
Prox	2.05	238	1.99	262

IN POSSESSION

	AUB		FLA
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	127.99	3	91.25	4
FTAR	32.60	23	24.31	76
FT%	72.28	184	--	--
FGAR	91.30	27	87.87	214
FG%	49.81	11	36.98	5
3P%	37.61	30	27.50	2
MR%	45.26	9	32.19	25
NP%	65.63	17	50.67	11
PPSt	14.92	48	10.46	57
SCC%	7.59	45	4.08	16
Prox	2.02	181	2.02	186

FLORIDA IN POSSESSION:
There isn't much of an advantage either way here when Florida is in possession of the basketball. This site rates Florida to be second in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Auburn is currently our #7 squad in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Florida offense leans slightly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the Auburn defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the Auburn defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Florida offense will be 40.3% three-pointers (1.6% above the D1 average), 20.8% mid-range jumpers (3.9% below the D1 average), and 38.8% near-proximity twos (2.3% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Florida has been absolutely outstanding converting shots from the floor this season (#7 in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Auburn defense has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating sixth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. On this end of the court, the Auburn defense gets the analytical nod in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Florida to shoot 34.0% from three (0.2% below the D1 average), 30.1% from the mid-range (7.3% below the D1 average), 61.0% from near-proximity locations (2.2% above the D1 average), and 43.6% overall (0.3% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Florida has the fingerprint of a unit that can really hammer the offensive boards at an elite level. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 30th in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, Auburn, is extremely stout on the defensive glass, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #41 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
	TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. On offense, Florida exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 72nd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (57th in the country). Meanwhile, the Auburn defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #48 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #60 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: Florida should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're usually a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (11th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (73.0%, 150th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Auburn defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 231st in the country in that category.

AUBURN IN POSSESSION:
The Auburn offense and the Florida defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. The Auburn offense is ranked #3 in Division I, while Florida comes in nationally at #4 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Florida defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Auburn offense will be 37.3% three-pointers (1.4% below the D1 average), 26.8% mid-range jumpers (2.1% above the D1 average), and 35.8% near-proximity twos (0.7% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Auburn has been converting field goals at a very high rate this season (nationally ranked #11 in overall field goal percentage). The Florida defense, meanwhile, has been ruthless and relentless, repeatedly shutting down opposing shooters and ranking as our #5 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Florida defense gets the analytical nod in three-point shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Auburn to shoot 31.5% from behind the arc (2.6% below the D1 average), 39.1% from mid-range locations (1.7% above the D1 average), 58.2% from near-proximity (0.7% below the D1 average), and 43.1% overall (0.9% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Auburn appears to do a pretty decent job on the offensive boards. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 45th nationally in that category. Meanwhile, Florida appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they're similarly outstanding in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (nationally ranked 16th in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Auburn offense has a small advantage over the Florida defense in the turnover game on this end. When in possession, Auburn protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 27th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (36th in the country). As for the opposition, the Florida D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 54th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Auburn offense heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #23 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.3%, ranked #184 in Division I). As for the opposition, the contentious Florida defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 76th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: Expect a slightly faster tempo than normal when these two ball-clubs meet. Florida (41st nationally in game pace) prefers a faster tempo, while Auburn (178th) likes more of an in-between game speed.
	AWAY-FROM-HOME: The analytics fail to reveal a significant advantage for either team in this category.
	MOMENTUM: Florida has the advantage in this category, as Auburn has not been playing up to their norm as of late (nationally ranked 313th in positive momentum).
	CONSISTENCY: Auburn is one of college basketball's more consistent teams, ranking 93rd in the country in consistency. Florida rates more in the middle.

THE VERDICT:
A single bucket could end up deciding this one. Florida deserves a slight edge per our forecast, but this could really go either way. Florida 78.75, Auburn 76.97.