TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Maine  10-8 (0.556)  |  America East
-- AT --
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 11, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.358 (234th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.595 (148th)
0.328 (337th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.503 (129th)
-0.113 (230th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.071 (210th)
215.10 (210th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
175.80 (174th)
-3.21 (328th)
   Momentum
  
7.20 (1st)
-10.00 (265th)
   Consistency
  
-10.24 (282nd)
-1.39 (248th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.55 (107th)
66.82 (199th)
Pace
  
63.81 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
UME
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 100.56 267 105.62 144
FTAR 23.40 310 32.74 328
FT% 74.07 121 -- --
FGAR 82.82 324 84.21 82
FG% 44.39 154 42.41 113
3P% 33.01 200 36.84 318
MR% 40.59 196 40.83 171
NP% 59.50 121 50.56 29
PPSt 14.77 75 12.22 175
SCC% 3.60 337 4.39 52
Prox 2.01 136 2.05 158
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UME
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.84 173 107.38 178
FTAR 26.49 210 27.11 179
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.67 32 83.30 58
FG% 42.49 238 46.39 289
3P% 34.76 113 35.48 266
MR% 42.79 116 37.98 86
NP% 54.91 242 61.01 291
PPSt 12.05 192 12.48 193
SCC% 4.86 266 10.39 363
Prox 2.17 348 1.94 341
MAINE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Maine offense in this particular matchup. Duquesne is currently 144th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Maine nationally comes in at #267 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Maine offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duquesne defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Maine offense will be 31.7% three-pointers (6.9% below the D1 average), 38.5% mid-range jumpers (12.1% above the D1 average), and 29.8% near-proximity twos (5.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Maine has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 154th nationally in that category this year. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 113th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Maine offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Maine to shoot 36.3% from three (2.8% above the D1 average), 40.1% from the mid-range (0.9% below the D1 average), 51.4% from near-proximity locations (6.0% below the D1 average), and 42.3% overall (1.6% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne has an enormous rebounding advantage at this end. Maine is really nothing special on the offensive glass. On the other hand, they are actually well below-average at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 337th in that category). The opposition here, Duquesne, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise been proficient preventing foes from scoring via putbacks (ranked #52 in the NCAA in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Maine is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Maine won't get to the charity stripe very often (310th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're above-average shooters from there (74.1%, 121st in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 328th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when Duquesne is on offense. This site rates Duquesne to be 173rd in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Maine is currently our #178 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense leans strongly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Maine defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Maine defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 39.3% three-pointers (0.7% above the D1 average), 29.9% mid-range jumpers (3.4% above the D1 average), and 30.9% near-proximity twos (4.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #238 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Maine defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#289 in the country). On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Maine defense has the edge in mid-range shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 37.0% from behind the arc (3.5% above the D1 average), 40.8% from mid-range locations (0.2% below the D1 average), 60.7% from near-proximity (3.3% above the D1 average), and 45.5% overall (1.6% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #266 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Maine, has the appearance of a squad that is just plain inadequate on the defensive boards, and they're similarly pathetic in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #363 in that category).
TURNOVERS: Duquesne may struggle with turnovers against this Maine defense. Offensively, Duquesne rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Maine defense exhibits a fair amount of pressure, which can occasionally create havoc for opposing offenses. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #75 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #58 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Duquesne offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #210 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ranked #356 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive Maine defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 179th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. Maine (199th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duquesne (345th) would rather maintain a slower pace.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We would expect a potential performance bump for the home team here. Duquesne has performed better at home than they have away from home this season. To boot, they are facing Maine, a team that has played their worst basketball this year away from their home court.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (first in the country in positive momentum), while Maine (328th) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Duquesne ranks 282nd nationally in consistency, while Maine is presently 265th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
This contest has the potential to be very competitive, but Duquesne is the better team on this day. Duquesne 69.66, Maine 61.91.