TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
UC Irvine  15-2 (0.882)  |  Big West
-- AT --
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 11, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.826 (65th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.595 (148th)
0.567 (64th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.503 (129th)
0.471 (15th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.071 (210th)
79.93 (77th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
175.80 (174th)
-0.28 (195th)
   Momentum
  
7.20 (1st)
-9.67 (233rd)
   Consistency
  
-10.24 (282nd)
-0.44 (172nd)
   Away/Home Court   
1.55 (107th)
67.80 (139th)
Pace
  
63.81 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
UCI
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.73 175 105.62 144
FTAR 28.60 124 32.74 328
FT% 82.57 4 -- --
FGAR 83.82 297 84.21 82
FG% 44.25 160 42.41 113
3P% 33.11 195 36.84 318
MR% 40.56 198 40.83 171
NP% 56.48 196 50.56 29
PPSt 11.61 216 12.22 175
SCC% 7.19 56 4.39 52
Prox 1.94 38 2.05 158
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UCI
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.84 173 93.11 18
FTAR 26.49 210 18.50 3
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.67 32 89.23 312
FG% 42.49 238 39.09 27
3P% 34.76 113 29.83 34
MR% 42.79 116 40.83 170
NP% 54.91 242 48.03 11
PPSt 12.05 192 13.14 238
SCC% 4.86 266 5.62 163
Prox 2.17 348 2.05 161
UC IRVINE IN POSSESSION:
According to the numbers, the Duquesne D should have a modest advantage on UC Irvine at this particular end of the floor. The Duquesne defense is ranked #144 in Division I, while UC Irvine comes in nationally at #175 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The UC Irvine offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the UC Irvine offense will be 28.4% three-pointers (10.2% below the D1 average), 37.8% mid-range jumpers (11.3% above the D1 average), and 33.8% near-proximity twos (1.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UC Irvine has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 160th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #113 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the UC Irvine offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects UC Irvine to shoot 36.7% from three (3.2% above the D1 average), 40.1% from the mid-range (0.9% below the D1 average), 49.0% from near-proximity locations (8.4% below the D1 average), and 42.2% overall (1.7% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. UC Irvine is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they are quite proficient at scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 56th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duquesne has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise been proficient preventing foes from scoring via putbacks (ranked #52 in the NCAA in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense has a small advantage over the UC Irvine offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, UC Irvine isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. As for the opposition, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the UC Irvine offense here. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (124th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (82.6%, fourth in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 328th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The UC Irvine defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Duquesne offense in this particular matchup. UC Irvine is currently 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #173 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the UC Irvine defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the UC Irvine defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 41.7% three-pointers (3.1% above the D1 average), 34.2% mid-range jumpers (7.7% above the D1 average), and 24.1% near-proximity twos (10.8% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #238 in overall field goal conversion rate. The UC Irvine defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 27th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in mid-range shooting, while the UC Irvine defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 32.0% from behind the arc (1.5% below the D1 average), 42.7% from mid-range locations (1.7% above the D1 average), 43.9% from near-proximity (13.5% below the D1 average), and 38.5% overall (5.3% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: UC Irvine will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #266 in that department). UC Irvine, meanwhile, is extremely stout on the defensive glass, but they're slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #163 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the UC Irvine defense. Offensively, Duquesne rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the UC Irvine D is a tad more conservative than most D1 units.
FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #210 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ranked #356 in Division I). Meanwhile, the more reserved UC Irvine defense, as expected, really keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking third in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. UC Irvine (139th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duquesne (345th) would rather maintain a slower pace.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Duquesne may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, superior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked first in the country in positive momentum.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 282nd in the country in consistency. UC Irvine places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
These squads should be pretty competitive with one another. The analytics are picking UC Irvine in a fairly tight contest. UC Irvine 67.41, Duquesne 61.92.