Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

UC Irvine 32-7 (0.821) | Big West
-- AT --
Duquesne 13-19 (0.406) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.774 (83^rd)

All-Play Percentage

0.634 (133^rd)

0.506 (135^th)

Schedule Strength

0.536 (111^th)

0.370 (32^nd)

Record Quality

-0.061 (212^th)

80.32 (78^th)

Avg. Season Rank

157.35 (153^rd)

-1.04 (226^th)

Momentum

2.90 (59^th)

-9.64 (204^th)

Consistency

-10.28 (281^st)

1.32 (26^th)

Away/Home Court

0.35 (174^th)

67.90 (99^th)

Pace

64.81 (298^th)

IN POSSESSION

	UCI		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	109.16	151	105.62	118
FTAR	27.85	151	30.81	310
FT%	80.23	4	--	--
FGAR	84.46	305	83.22	32
FG%	45.19	118	43.74	153
3P%	35.34	102	37.08	326
MR%	36.20	226	36.32	127
NP%	60.12	123	55.95	78
PPSt	10.37	278	12.71	220
SCC%	7.15	70	5.71	141
Prox	1.96	78	1.97	289

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		UCI
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	108.01	170	99.56	47
FTAR	27.18	180	21.93	22
FT%	63.55	357	--	--
FGAR	88.55	106	91.25	337
FG%	43.76	179	39.47	24
3P%	34.14	168	34.06	175
MR%	39.36	104	36.86	148
NP%	60.83	109	48.06	1
PPSt	13.57	106	12.08	175
SCC%	5.28	253	5.96	169
Prox	2.13	338	2.05	114

UC IRVINE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne defense appears to have a small advantage on the UC Irvine offense at this end of the court. This site rates Duquesne to be 118th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while UC Irvine is currently our #151 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The UC Irvine offense leans slightly in favor of an inside attack, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more chances from inside the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the UC Irvine offense will be 29.7% three-pointers (9.0% below the D1 average), 31.5% mid-range jumpers (6.8% above the D1 average), and 38.8% near-proximity twos (2.2% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UC Irvine is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 118th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #153 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the UC Irvine offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects UC Irvine to shoot 38.5% from three (4.4% above the D1 average), 34.9% from the mid-range (2.6% below the D1 average), 56.5% from near-proximity locations (2.3% below the D1 average), and 44.4% overall (0.4% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UC Irvine may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. UC Irvine appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. However, they are one of the better NCAA teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #70 in the country in that category. Duquesne, meanwhile, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly worse in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 141st in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. On offense, UC Irvine rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #106 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #32 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: UC Irvine will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #151 in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (80.2%, ranked #4 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Duquesne defense, as expected, will be more likely to foul than most other D1 squads, ranking 310th in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
From an analytical perspective, it appears that Duquesne will have a fair share of offensive issues against a defense of this caliber. The UC Irvine defense is ranked #47 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #170 on offense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the UC Irvine defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the UC Irvine defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 42.7% three-pointers (4.0% above the D1 average), 29.7% mid-range jumpers (5.0% above the D1 average), and 27.6% near-proximity twos (9.0% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 179th nationally in that category this year. The UC Irvine defense, meanwhile, has been one of the best in the country when it comes to defensive field goal percentage, nationally rated 24th in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has the ratings advantage in mid-range shooting, the UC Irvine defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 34.5% from behind the arc (0.4% above the D1 average), 38.7% from mid-range locations (1.3% above the D1 average), 49.5% from near-proximity (9.4% below the D1 average), and 39.9% overall (4.1% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UC Irvine may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 253rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, UC Irvine, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #169 in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense has a small advantage over the UC Irvine defense in the turnover game on this end. When in possession, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the UC Irvine defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #278 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#337 in the nation).
	FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Duquesne offense here. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (180th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (63.5%, eighth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved UC Irvine defense predictably does a superb job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 22nd in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. UC Irvine (99th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Duquesne (298th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: UC Irvine may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked 59th in the country in positive momentum.
	CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 281st in the country in consistency. UC Irvine places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
The outcome is very much in doubt here. Every possession is going to count. We'll pick UC Irvine by a very slim margin. UC Irvine 69.27, Duquesne 67.46.