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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through January 2, 2025. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.259 (270th)
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0.614 (141st)
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0.429 (237th)
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0.489 (143rd)
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-0.205 (278th)
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-0.094 (214th)
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187.21 (189th)
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180.31 (178th)
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0.08 (173rd)
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6.20 (4th)
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-9.37 (213th)
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-9.02 (183rd)
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0.01 (147th)
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1.64 (105th)
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66.47 (236th)
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63.83 (348th)
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IN POSSESSION
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RICH
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DUQ
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
102.67 |
242 |
103.90 |
116 |
FTAR |
31.91 |
41 |
31.91 |
324 |
FT% |
79.12 |
22 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
81.45 |
342 |
84.59 |
109 |
FG% |
40.56 |
323 |
41.52 |
68 |
3P% |
29.52 |
332 |
36.54 |
288 |
MR% |
39.02 |
255 |
40.48 |
149 |
NP% |
62.37 |
73 |
48.46 |
11 |
PPSt |
9.60 |
313 |
14.31 |
281 |
SCC% |
3.52 |
338 |
3.82 |
31 |
Prox |
2.21 |
361 |
2.05 |
156 |
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IN POSSESSION
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DUQ
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RICH
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
105.16 |
196 |
112.20 |
278 |
FTAR |
27.71 |
140 |
30.65 |
302 |
FT% |
60.85 |
358 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
88.67 |
73 |
86.85 |
209 |
FG% |
41.96 |
272 |
43.72 |
153 |
3P% |
35.16 |
124 |
35.96 |
264 |
MR% |
42.42 |
137 |
36.36 |
51 |
NP% |
53.59 |
283 |
61.41 |
287 |
PPSt |
12.32 |
190 |
11.51 |
126 |
SCC% |
4.31 |
294 |
5.29 |
138 |
Prox |
2.20 |
357 |
2.14 |
30 |
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RICHMOND IN POSSESSION: The Richmond offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Duquesne defense. This site rates Duquesne to be 116th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Richmond is currently our #242 squad in offensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Richmond offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Richmond offense will be 43.3% three-pointers (4.3% above the D1 average), 35.8% mid-range jumpers (9.7% above the D1 average), and 20.9% near-proximity twos (14.0% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Richmond has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 323rd nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #68 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). The Duquesne defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Richmond to shoot 30.9% from three (3.1% below the D1 average), 38.4% from the mid-range (2.9% below the D1 average), 47.3% from near-proximity locations (10.7% below the D1 average), and 37.0% overall (7.3% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Duquesne should easily control the boards on this end of the floor. Richmond is one-and-done most possessions, as they fail to collect many offensive rebounds. Additionally, they are far from competent converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 338th nationally in that category. Duquesne, meanwhile, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate). | | TURNOVERS: The Richmond offense has a small advantage over the Duquesne defense in the turnover game on this end. On offense, Richmond rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. | | FREE THROWS: You can expect plenty of chances at the free throw line for the Richmond offense here. They're usually a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (nationally ranked #41 in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (79.1%, ranked #22 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 324th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION: Analytically speaking, Duquesne should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense is ranked #196 in Division I, while Richmond comes in nationally at #278 on defense. | SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Richmond defense similarly tends to allow several more opportunities from the outside. Against the Richmond defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 49.7% three-pointers (10.6% above the D1 average), 30.1% mid-range jumpers (4.0% above the D1 average), and 20.3% near-proximity twos (14.7% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #272 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Richmond defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 153rd nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the Richmond defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc (3.1% above the D1 average), 38.7% from mid-range locations (2.6% below the D1 average), 59.1% from near-proximity (1.2% above the D1 average), and 42.0% overall (2.2% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Richmond may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 294th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Richmond, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #138 in that category). | | TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Richmond defense. When in possession, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 281st in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Richmond defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #313 ranking in that category. | | FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (140th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (60.9%, seventh from the bottom in the country). Meanwhile, the more reserved Richmond defense sends opposing offenses to the free throw line more often than one would expect, ranking 302nd nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here. Richmond (236th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duquesne (348th) would rather maintain a slower pace. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: Duquesne may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, superior to their performances away from home. | | MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked fourth in the country in positive momentum. | | CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible. |
THE VERDICT: Richmond definitely has a chance, but Duquesne is the right pick here. Duquesne 70.64, Richmond 61.05. |
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