Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Tulane 19-15 (0.559) | American
-- AT --
UTSA 12-19 (0.387) | American

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.628 (136^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.554 (163^rd)

0.454 (159^th)

Schedule Strength

0.490 (140^th)

0.032 (160^th)

Record Quality

-0.133 (246^th)

132.51 (127^th)

Avg. Season Rank

202.16 (201^st)

1.79 (105^th)

Momentum

2.57 (68^th)

-10.09 (260^th)

Consistency

-9.58 (197^th)

-3.11 (352^nd)

Away/Home Court

-0.17 (237^th)

66.01 (222^nd)

Pace

68.43 (64^th)

IN POSSESSION

	TUL		UTSA
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	110.31	129	109.34	199
FTAR	28.65	124	31.50	323
FT%	74.91	88	--	--
FGAR	86.38	215	82.33	17
FG%	45.00	122	45.48	253
3P%	33.89	183	35.79	275
MR%	38.49	133	39.30	252
NP%	60.12	124	59.97	221
PPSt	14.52	57	11.73	144
SCC%	7.04	77	5.87	154
Prox	2.00	133	2.03	144

IN POSSESSION

	UTSA		TUL
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	109.08	153	107.31	157
FTAR	26.31	210	25.95	120
FT%	78.47	21	--	--
FGAR	88.04	135	89.08	268
FG%	42.45	241	42.15	91
3P%	36.37	66	33.50	136
MR%	36.31	223	36.19	124
NP%	54.94	299	57.03	107
PPSt	19.44	1	11.33	119
SCC%	4.93	282	6.19	206
Prox	2.10	311	2.10	44

TULANE IN POSSESSION:
The Tulane offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the UTSA defense at this end of the floor. This site rates Tulane to be 129th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while UTSA is currently our #199 squad in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Tulane offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the UTSA defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the UTSA defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Tulane offense will be 38.7% three-pointers (a shade below the D1 average), 23.1% mid-range jumpers (1.6% below the D1 average), and 38.2% near-proximity twos (1.6% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Tulane is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 122nd nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the UTSA defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#253 in the country). The Tulane offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Tulane to shoot 35.2% from three (1.1% above the D1 average), 40.0% from the mid-range (2.5% above the D1 average), 60.4% from near-proximity locations (1.6% above the D1 average), and 45.9% overall (2.0% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Tulane may have a modest rebounding edge on this end of the floor. Tulane is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #77 in that department). The opposition here, UTSA, should be considered slightly inferior in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly better in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #154 in the country in that department).
	TURNOVERS: The UTSA defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Tulane offense. On offense, Tulane is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 119th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the overly aggressive UTSA defense has the potential to create many a problem for even the most disciplined of NCAA offenses. They're elite in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked first in the country) and defensive field goal attempt rate (17th in the country).
	FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the Tulane offense here. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #124 in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.9%, 88th in the country). Meanwhile, the turnover-hungry UTSA defense predictably commits a ridiculous number of fouls, ranking 323rd in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

UTSA IN POSSESSION:
The UTSA offense and the Tulane defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. UTSA is currently 153rd in the country in offensive efficiency, while Tulane nationally comes in at #157 in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The UTSA offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Tulane defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Tulane defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the UTSA offense will be 48.3% three-pointers (9.6% above the D1 average), 21.0% mid-range jumpers (3.7% below the D1 average), and 30.7% near-proximity twos (5.9% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UTSA has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #241 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Tulane defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 91st in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the UTSA offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Tulane defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect UTSA to shoot 35.8% from behind the arc (1.7% above the D1 average), 35.3% from mid-range locations (2.1% below the D1 average), 53.7% from near-proximity (5.1% below the D1 average), and 41.2% overall (2.7% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Tulane may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. UTSA lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 282nd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, Tulane, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 206th in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Tulane defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, UTSA rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Tulane D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 57th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. UTSA obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (210th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.5%, ranked #21 in Division I). As for the opposition, the contentious Tulane defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 120th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. UTSA (64th in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while Tulane (222nd) likes things at more of an average clip.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Tulane may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. UTSA is 68th nationally in positive momentum, while Tulane presently ranks 105th.
	CONSISTENCY: Tulane is one of the NCAA's more inconsistent teams, ranking 260th nationally in consistency. UTSA rates closer to the D1 average.

THE VERDICT:
Expect this to be extremely competitive. We're not sure this contest can be resolved within regulation time. Some overtime might be in the forecast. UTSA 74.84, Tulane 74.35.