TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Tulane  4-2 (0.667)  |  American
-- AT --
UTSA  1-2 (0.333)  |  American
Includes games through November 24, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.694 (112th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.240 (277th)
0.193 (353rd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.518 (130th)
-0.104 (220th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.514 (355th)
131.18 (135th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
266.82 (264th)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-10.30 (265th)
   Consistency
  
N/A (N/A)
-7.75 (323rd)
   Away/Home Court   
N/A (N/A)
72.10 (27th)
  Pace
 
71.92 (30th)
IN POSSESSION
TUL
UTSA
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.57 105 109.57 282
FTAR 30.92 29 28.72 269
FT% 76.00 69 -- --
FGAR 83.47 312 84.90 137
FG% 44.57 125 45.84 293
3P% 35.76 67 36.17 317
MR% 38.97 204 43.26 332
NP% 56.67 194 57.62 162
PPSt 13.53 88 12.04 172
SCC% 7.27 33 6.29 313
Prox 1.98 68 2.01 227
IN POSSESSION
UTSA
TUL
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 99.90 270 105.27 170
FTAR 26.58 206 27.78 225
FT% 74.97 96 -- --
FGAR 87.33 73 86.21 244
FG% 39.70 346 41.81 70
3P% 31.34 302 33.05 127
MR% 36.04 323 33.30 10
NP% 51.75 341 58.60 203
PPSt 12.61 135 13.82 320
SCC% 5.15 211 5.42 180
Prox 2.04 230 2.08 36
TULANE IN POSSESSION:
On paper, Tulane stands to have a comfortable analytical advantage at this end of the court. This site rates Tulane to be 105th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while UTSA is currently our #282 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the UTSA defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Tulane offense will be 34.6% three-pointers (3.2% below the D1 average), 26.7% mid-range jumpers (0.1% above the D1 average), and 38.6% near-proximity twos (3.0% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Tulane has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #125 team in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the UTSA defense has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #293 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Tulane offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the UTSA defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Tulane to shoot 38.0% from three (4.2% above the D1 average), 42.6% from the mid-range (3.2% above the D1 average), 55.8% from near-proximity locations (1.9% below the D1 average), and 46.1% overall (2.3% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Tulane should have a monstrous rebounding edge at this end. Tulane has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 33rd in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, UTSA, has the appearance of a team whose defensive rebounding abilities are a bit subpar, and they've likewise been rather poor in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked at #313 in said category).
TURNOVERS: Tulane may struggle with turnovers against this UTSA defense. On offense, Tulane is very irresponsible with the basketball and will give it away often. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 312th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very shoddy (320th in the country). Meanwhile, the UTSA D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: Tulane should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're usually a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (29th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.0%, ranked #69 in Division I). As for the opposition, the UTSA D appears to commit a bit too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 269th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

UTSA IN POSSESSION:
The UTSA offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Tulane defense. Tulane is currently 170th in the country in defensive efficiency, while UTSA nationally comes in at #270 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The UTSA offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Tulane defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Tulane defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the UTSA offense will be 43.3% three-pointers (5.5% above the D1 average), 23.2% mid-range jumpers (3.4% below the D1 average), and 33.4% near-proximity twos (2.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UTSA is one of the worst teams in college hoops when it comes to shooting (rated 346th in overall field goal conversion rate). The Tulane defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 70th in the country in that category. The Tulane defense has a sizeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect UTSA to shoot 31.3% from behind the arc (2.4% below the D1 average), 30.0% from mid-range locations (9.3% below the D1 average), 53.4% from near-proximity (4.3% below the D1 average), and 38.4% overall (5.4% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. UTSA lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're similarly unremarkable, coming in at #211 nationally in our ratings there. Meanwhile, Tulane is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly only fair in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 180th in the country there).
TURNOVERS: The Tulane defense has a small advantage over the UTSA offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, UTSA is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Tulane defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 88th in that category).
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. UTSA obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #206 in free throw attempt rate), though they're above-average shooters from there (75.0%, 96th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Tulane defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 225th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect an accelerated tempo in this particular contest. Neither of these squads has an issue with running in transition. Tulane is 27th in the country in game pace, while UTSA currently ranks 30th.

THE VERDICT:
We like Tulane here, but don't count UTSA out entirely. They'll have a fighting chance. Tulane 83.19, UTSA 75.44.