TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Tulane  4-2 (0.667)  |  American
-- AT --
North Texas  5-1 (0.833)  |  American
Includes games through November 25, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.694 (112th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.763 (86th)
0.191 (356th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.533 (115th)
-0.104 (222nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.331 (49th)
130.35 (133rd)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
84.39 (85th)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-10.30 (279th)
   Consistency
  
-4.19 (14th)
-7.74 (334th)
   Away/Home Court   
-1.34 (312th)
72.09 (27th)
  Pace
  
64.54 (361st)
IN POSSESSION
TUL
UNT
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.59 107 99.86 74
FTAR 30.87 33 29.91 307
FT% 76.00 71 -- --
FGAR 83.33 314 80.51 6
FG% 44.64 123 42.65 112
3P% 36.09 55 34.73 242
MR% 38.85 216 35.97 51
NP% 56.63 200 58.62 205
PPSt 13.48 92 10.06 42
SCC% 7.23 34 4.67 55
Prox 1.98 73 2.08 43
IN POSSESSION
UNT
TUL
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 109.19 95 105.34 171
FTAR 28.92 88 27.66 214
FT% 72.50 154 -- --
FGAR 88.08 49 86.23 247
FG% 43.44 184 41.92 80
3P% 35.61 72 32.93 116
MR% 36.24 310 33.46 11
NP% 57.60 171 58.96 225
PPSt 14.55 46 13.84 314
SCC% 6.46 65 5.46 192
Prox 2.02 187 2.08 40
TULANE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the North Texas defense, this Tulane offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. The North Texas defense is ranked #74 in Division I, while Tulane comes in nationally at #107 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The Tulane offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the North Texas defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the North Texas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Tulane offense will be 37.0% three-pointers (0.8% below the D1 average), 28.8% mid-range jumpers (2.2% above the D1 average), and 34.2% near-proximity twos (1.4% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Tulane is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 123rd nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. The North Texas defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #112 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Tulane offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the North Texas defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Tulane to shoot 36.7% from three (2.9% above the D1 average), 34.9% from the mid-range (4.5% below the D1 average), 56.3% from near-proximity locations (1.4% below the D1 average), and 42.9% overall (0.9% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Tulane seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 34th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, North Texas, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've similarly been solid squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 55th in that category).
TURNOVERS: Turnovers should be a large-scale concern for Tulane here. When in possession, Tulane has some ball-security issues that too often result in giveaways. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 314th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very shoddy (314th in the country). As for the opposition, the North Texas D is fairly aggressive and is certainly capable of coming away with their fair share of steals. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #46 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #6 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: You can expect plenty of chances at the free throw line for the Tulane offense here. They're usually a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (nationally ranked #33 in free throw attempt rate), and they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.0%, ranked #71 in Division I). As for the opposition, the aggressive North Texas defense predictably commits a significant number of fouls, ranking 307th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

NORTH TEXAS IN POSSESSION:
The North Texas offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the Tulane defense at this end of the floor. North Texas is currently 95th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Tulane nationally comes in at #171 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The North Texas offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Tulane defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Tulane defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the North Texas offense will be 41.7% three-pointers (3.8% above the D1 average), 24.9% mid-range jumpers (1.7% below the D1 average), and 33.4% near-proximity twos (2.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: North Texas has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 184th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Tulane defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 80th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the North Texas offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Tulane defense has the edge in mid-range shooting. We expect North Texas to shoot 35.0% from behind the arc (1.2% above the D1 average), 30.8% from mid-range locations (8.6% below the D1 average), 59.7% from near-proximity (2.0% above the D1 average), and 42.2% overall (1.6% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: North Texas should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. North Texas has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They're also quite proficient at scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 65th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Tulane is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #192 in that category).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. Offensively, North Texas exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 49th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (42nd in the country). Meanwhile, the Tulane D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 92nd in that category).
FREE THROWS: North Texas will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're typically a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (88th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.5%, 154th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Tulane defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 214th in the NCAA this season.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Tulane (27th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while North Texas (fourth from the bottom) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Tulane has performed far worse away from home this year than they have at home. Luckily for them, they are facing North Texas, who has played their most inefficient basketball this season when competing on their home floor.
CONSISTENCY: North Texas appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (14th in the nation in consistency), while Tulane (279th in consistency) has been much more erratic.

THE VERDICT:
There isn't a large gap separating the abilities of these two squads. Tulane will put up a fight, but North Texas gets the win. North Texas 74.50, Tulane 69.01.