TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
North Texas  5-1 (0.833)  |  American
-- AT --
Wichita State  5-0 (1.000)  |  American
Includes games through November 25, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.763 (86th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.722 (102nd)
0.533 (115th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.428 (218th)
0.331 (49th)
   Record Quality
  
0.539 (11th)
84.39 (85th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
89.91 (92nd)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-4.19 (14th)
   Consistency
  
-5.32 (40th)
1.34 (53rd)
   Away/Home Court   
-4.09 (347th)
64.54 (361st)
   Pace
70.56 (84th)
IN POSSESSION
UNT
WICH
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 109.19 95 98.71 55
FTAR 28.92 88 24.76 65
FT% 72.50 154 -- --
FGAR 88.08 49 86.79 276
FG% 43.44 184 42.46 103
3P% 35.61 72 30.96 32
MR% 36.24 310 39.86 192
NP% 57.60 171 57.56 160
PPSt 14.55 46 10.70 74
SCC% 6.46 65 5.23 139
Prox 2.02 187 2.04 110
IN POSSESSION
WICH
UNT
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.18 112 99.86 74
FTAR 29.59 64 29.91 307
FT% 74.81 101 -- --
FGAR 85.83 141 80.51 6
FG% 45.10 112 42.65 112
3P% 31.80 279 34.73 242
MR% 41.03 100 35.97 51
NP% 58.25 150 58.62 205
PPSt 14.40 57 10.06 42
SCC% 5.73 130 4.67 55
Prox 1.91 5 2.08 43
NORTH TEXAS IN POSSESSION:
The Wichita State defense appears to have a small advantage on the North Texas offense at this end of the court. The Wichita State defense is ranked #55 in Division I, while North Texas comes in nationally at #95 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The North Texas offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Wichita State defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Wichita State defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the North Texas offense will be 37.8% three-pointers (a shade above the D1 average), 28.9% mid-range jumpers (2.2% above the D1 average), and 33.3% near-proximity twos (2.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: North Texas has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 184th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Wichita State defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #103 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Wichita State defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects North Texas to shoot 32.4% from three (1.4% below the D1 average), 36.4% from the mid-range (3.0% below the D1 average), 56.6% from near-proximity locations (1.1% below the D1 average), and 41.6% overall (2.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. North Texas has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They're also quite proficient at scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 65th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, Wichita State, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, but they're slightly worse in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 139th in the country there).
TURNOVERS: The North Texas offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Wichita State defense. On offense, North Texas exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 49th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (42nd in the country). As for the opposition, the Wichita State D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 57th in that category).
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. The North Texas offense is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #88 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.5%, ranked #154 in Division I). As for the opposition, the contentious Wichita State defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 65th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

WICHITA STATE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the North Texas defense, this Wichita State offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. This site rates North Texas to be 74th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Wichita State is currently our #112 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The Wichita State offense is largely in favor of inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the North Texas defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the North Texas defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Wichita State offense will be 33.1% three-pointers (4.7% below the D1 average), 29.8% mid-range jumpers (3.1% above the D1 average), and 37.1% near-proximity twos (1.6% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Wichita State is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 112th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. The North Texas defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 112th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Wichita State offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the North Texas defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. We expect Wichita State to shoot 33.4% from behind the arc (0.3% below the D1 average), 38.1% from mid-range locations (1.3% below the D1 average), 60.0% from near-proximity (2.3% above the D1 average), and 44.7% overall (0.9% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: North Texas may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Wichita State is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're similarly a relatively average unit, rated 130th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. Meanwhile, North Texas appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been solid squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 55th in that category).
TURNOVERS: The North Texas defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Wichita State exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 74th in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the North Texas defense exhibits a fair amount of pressure, which can occasionally create havoc for opposing offenses. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #46 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #6 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: The Wichita State offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (64th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.8%, 101st in the country). Meanwhile, the aggressive North Texas defense predictably commits a significant number of fouls, ranking 307th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Wichita State (84th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while North Texas (fourth from the bottom) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We expect a potential performance bump for visiting North Texas here. They have performed better away from home this year than they have at home. To boot, they are facing Wichita State, a team that has played their very worst basketball this season while in front of their home crowd.
CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. North Texas ranks 14th in the country in consistency, while Wichita State is presently 40th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
These teams are projected to be separated by less than two points. This one should be a nailbiter. Wichita State 69.93, North Texas 68.55.