TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Rider  4-9 (0.308)  |  MAAC
-- AT --
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.044 (348th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.573 (156th)
0.367 (318th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.494 (132nd)
-0.294 (315th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.141 (242nd)
292.61 (301st)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
183.11 (185th)
-5.44 (363rd)
   Momentum
  
4.78 (11th)
-8.59 (149th)
   Consistency
  
-8.28 (114th)
1.12 (60th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.91 (142nd)
64.54 (328th)
  Pace
  
64.16 (340th)
IN POSSESSION
RID
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 96.93 330 104.79 131
FTAR 27.67 140 31.82 329
FT% 65.74 317 -- --
FGAR 87.17 133 84.81 113
FG% 40.61 321 41.85 78
3P% 28.13 353 36.96 293
MR% 41.28 181 41.02 164
NP% 51.91 318 48.03 10
PPSt 10.69 256 13.70 260
SCC% 6.00 156 3.86 31
Prox 1.99 94 2.03 195
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
RID
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 116.83 334
FTAR 26.83 173 23.59 92
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 90.73 333
FG% 41.58 290 47.68 314
3P% 35.59 118 38.25 334
MR% 42.30 149 42.60 213
NP% 51.12 331 60.86 271
PPSt 12.77 170 14.76 305
SCC% 3.99 314 5.15 127
Prox 2.19 353 2.04 179
RIDER IN POSSESSION:
The Rider offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Duquesne defense. The Duquesne defense is ranked #131 in Division I, while Rider comes in nationally at #330 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The Rider offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duquesne defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Rider offense will be 28.1% three-pointers (11.0% below the D1 average), 41.2% mid-range jumpers (15.1% above the D1 average), and 30.8% near-proximity twos (4.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Rider has certainly not converted field goals at a solid clip this season (rated our #321 team in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Duquesne defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. This site expects Rider to shoot 29.9% from three (4.3% below the D1 average), 40.7% from the mid-range (0.8% below the D1 average), 40.3% from near-proximity locations (17.5% below the D1 average), and 37.5% overall (6.8% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Rider appears to be a unit that is below-average by NCAA standards on the offensive glass. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 156th in that category). The opposition here, Duquesne, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense has a small advantage over the Rider offense in the turnover battle on this end. On offense, Rider has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly inadequate, as the team places 305th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the Rider offense here. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #140 in free throw attempt rate), though they're quite terrible at sinking their foul shots (65.7%, ranked #317 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 329th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
On paper, Duquesne stands to have a comfortable analytical advantage at this end of the court. Duquesne is currently 207th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Rider nationally comes in at #334 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Rider defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Rider defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 47.0% three-pointers (8.0% above the D1 average), 24.1% mid-range jumpers (2.0% below the D1 average), and 28.9% near-proximity twos (6.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Rider defense, meanwhile, has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #314 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Rider defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 39.3% from behind the arc (5.1% above the D1 average), 43.9% from mid-range locations (2.4% above the D1 average), 57.1% from near-proximity (0.6% below the D1 average), and 45.5% overall (1.2% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Rider may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, Rider, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #127 in that category).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Rider defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #256 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#333 in the nation).
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, seventh from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved Rider defense, as expected, keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking 92nd in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 340th nationally in game pace, while Rider currently ranks 328th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Rider may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (11th in the country in positive momentum), while Rider (second from the bottom) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of college basketball's more consistent teams, ranking 114th in the country in consistency. Rider rates more in the middle.

THE VERDICT:
Rider might stick around for a while, but Duquesne should ultimately pull away down the stretch. Duquesne 72.67, Rider 56.31.