Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Queens 20-15 (0.571) | Atlantic Sun
-- AT --
Duke 35-3 (0.921) | ACC

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.402 (219^th)

All-Play Percentage

1.000 (1^st)

0.366 (267^th)

Schedule Strength

0.704 (47^th)

-0.010 (179^th)

Record Quality

0.641 (4^th)

249.28 (247^th)

Avg. Season Rank

2.63 (3^rd)

0.85 (140^th)

Momentum

0.13 (171^st)

-10.38 (294^th)

Consistency

-11.33 (346^th)

0.93 (45^th)

Away/Home Court

0.13 (197^th)

67.07 (151^st)

Pace

64.82 (297^th)

IN POSSESSION

	QUNC		DUKE
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	106.53	197	91.08	3
FTAR	28.38	134	19.34	2
FT%	69.22	283	--	--
FGAR	85.43	258	90.12	306
FG%	43.75	181	36.81	3
3P%	34.20	167	30.60	26
MR%	34.03	304	30.28	7
NP%	58.59	175	49.70	6
PPSt	10.80	264	9.12	19
SCC%	5.32	246	4.30	23
Prox	2.02	184	2.06	100

IN POSSESSION

	DUKE		QUNC
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	133.43	1	112.25	259
FTAR	32.45	25	26.46	145
FT%	78.55	19	--	--
FGAR	90.13	51	89.11	271
FG%	51.45	1	46.32	290
3P%	40.00	7	36.29	303
MR%	45.72	6	39.22	245
NP%	65.09	26	59.48	201
PPSt	13.26	120	13.19	255
SCC%	8.53	11	5.34	100
Prox	2.00	138	1.95	325

QUEENS IN POSSESSION:
From an analytical perspective, it appears that Queens will have a fair share of offensive issues against a defense of this caliber. This site rates Duke to be third in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Queens is currently our #197 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Queens offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duke defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duke defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Queens offense will be 41.0% three-pointers (2.3% above the D1 average), 23.5% mid-range jumpers (1.2% below the D1 average), and 35.5% near-proximity twos (1.1% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Queens has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 181st nationally in that category this year. The Duke defense, meanwhile, has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating third in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Duke defense has a sizeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Queens to shoot 30.5% from three (3.6% below the D1 average), 25.4% from the mid-range (12.0% below the D1 average), 49.1% from near-proximity locations (9.7% below the D1 average), and 35.9% overall (8.1% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duke should easily control the boards on this end of the floor. Queens lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 246th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duke cleans the defensive glass at an extremely high level, and they're similarly outstanding in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (nationally ranked 23rd in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Duke defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Queens isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their field goal attempt rate is not very good (rated 258th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is less than satisfactory (255th in the country). Meanwhile, the Duke defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 120th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Queens offense here. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #134 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.2%, ranked #283 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duke D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking second in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUKE IN POSSESSION:
Duke has quite the significant statistical advantage over Queens on this end of the floor. The Duke offense is ranked #1 in Division I, while Queens comes in nationally at #259 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Duke offense is relatively balanced with inside and outside shots alike, while the Queens defense typically allows marginally more chances from the paint than from the perimeter. Against the Queens defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duke offense will be 38.6% three-pointers (0.1% below the D1 average), 16.0% mid-range jumpers (8.7% below the D1 average), and 45.4% near-proximity twos (8.8% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duke has been absolutely outstanding converting shots from the floor this season (#1 in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Queens defense has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #290 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Duke offense sports a comfortable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Duke to shoot 42.7% from behind the arc (8.6% above the D1 average), 48.7% from mid-range locations (11.3% above the D1 average), 65.7% from near-proximity (6.9% above the D1 average), and 54.1% overall (10.2% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duke should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. Duke has the look of a team that can pound the offensive glass as well as just about anyone in the country. To boot, they are first-class at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 11th nationally in that category. Queens, meanwhile, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have been a wee bit better containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #100 in that department).
	TURNOVERS: Duke should not have any turnover concerns whatsoever vs. the Queens defense. Offensively, Duke protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 51st in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (19th in the country). As for the opposition, the Queens defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #264 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#271 in the nation).
	FREE THROWS: Duke will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're typically a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (25th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.5%, 19th in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved Queens defense is fairly average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 145th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. Queens (151st nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duke (297th) would rather maintain a slower pace.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Queens may fare better than expected here, as their performances away from home, on average, have been superior to their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Queens wins the battle for positive momentum here, but the analytical edge shouldn't really be classified as a significantly impactful one.
	CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Duke ranks 346th nationally in consistency, while Queens is presently 294th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
You can probably stick a fork in Queens here. They should be cooked rather quickly. Duke 91.36, Queens 57.51.