TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Queens  3-4 (0.429)  |  Atlantic Sun
-- AT --
Duke  5-2 (0.714)  |  ACC
Includes games through December 1, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.143 (312th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
1.000 (1st)
0.508 (126th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.621 (43rd)
-0.147 (244th)
   Record Quality
  
0.313 (51st)
296.10 (296th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
4.24 (3rd)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-8.88 (216th)
   Consistency
  
-11.22 (317th)
-1.46 (259th)
   Away/Home Court   
5.94 (19th)
72.57 (7th)
   Pace
67.52 (246th)
IN POSSESSION
QUNC
DUKE
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 96.26 329 86.49 2
FTAR 25.65 225 21.80 17
FT% 58.89 355 -- --
FGAR 86.31 132 81.79 24
FG% 40.02 340 36.68 3
3P% 31.26 292 28.53 5
MR% 36.35 306 33.82 18
NP% 52.69 320 50.01 11
PPSt 12.75 151 11.28 119
SCC% 4.73 263 4.98 113
Prox 2.08 294 2.09 49
IN POSSESSION
DUKE
QUNC
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 121.05 10 104.94 159
FTAR 26.16 202 27.54 227
FT% 72.34 164 -- --
FGAR 88.50 56 85.51 171
FG% 49.30 12 46.23 296
3P% 38.00 16 34.52 238
MR% 49.00 6 43.99 319
NP% 64.13 28 57.62 170
PPSt 16.23 12 12.67 235
SCC% 6.89 48 5.57 197
Prox 2.10 320 1.94 352
QUEENS IN POSSESSION:
The elite Duke defense should easily put the clamps on whatever offense Queens tries to muster. The Duke defense is ranked #2 in Division I, while Queens comes in nationally at #329 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Queens offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duke defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duke defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Queens offense will be 45.8% three-pointers (7.7% above the D1 average), 22.4% mid-range jumpers (4.3% below the D1 average), and 31.8% near-proximity twos (3.3% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Queens is one of the worst teams in college hoops when it comes to shooting (rated 340th in overall field goal conversion rate). The Duke defense, meanwhile, has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating third in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Duke defense appears to have a colossal advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Queens to shoot 26.4% from three (7.3% below the D1 average), 28.3% from the mid-range (11.4% below the D1 average), 43.3% from near-proximity locations (14.4% below the D1 average), and 32.2% overall (11.5% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duke will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Queens has the fingerprint of a team whose offensive rebounding abilities are a bit worse than the D1 norm. They are also somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 263rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Duke, will rarely surrender second chances, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 113th in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Duke defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Queens offense. Offensively, Queens is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the intrusive Duke D will typically be up in your grill and can force several turnovers. They're elite in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked 12th in the country) and defensive field goal attempt rate (24th in the country).
FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Queens offense here. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #225 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (58.9%, ranked #355 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive Duke defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 17th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUKE IN POSSESSION:
When on offense, Duke should have a fairly sizeable advantage on Queens. Duke is currently tenth in the country in offensive efficiency, while Queens nationally comes in at #159 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Duke offense leans solidly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Queens defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Queens defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duke offense will be 40.7% three-pointers (2.5% above the D1 average), 20.1% mid-range jumpers (6.6% below the D1 average), and 39.2% near-proximity twos (4.0% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duke has been converting field goals at a very high rate this season (nationally ranked #12 in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Queens defense has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #296 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Duke offense sports a comfortable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Duke to shoot 39.5% from behind the arc (5.8% above the D1 average), 55.6% from mid-range locations (15.9% above the D1 average), 64.0% from near-proximity (6.3% above the D1 average), and 52.3% overall (8.6% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duke should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. Duke has the look of a team that can pound the offensive glass as well as just about anyone in the country. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 48th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Queens, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #197 in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Duke offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Queens defense. On offense, Duke rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 56th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is more than satisfactory (119th in the country). As for the opposition, the Queens D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Duke offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (202nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.3%, 164th in the country). As for the opposition, the Queens D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 227th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Queens (seventh in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Duke (246th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We would expect a potential performance bump for the home team here. Duke has performed far better at home than they have away from home this season. To boot, they are facing Queens, a team that has played their worst basketball this year away from their home court.
CONSISTENCY: Duke is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 317th in the country in consistency. Queens places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

THE VERDICT:
Blowout City. Queens is in for a rough 40 minutes. Duke 90.83, Queens 53.34.