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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.744 (94th)
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0.904 (36th)
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0.545 (109th)
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0.729 (32nd)
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0.176 (88th)
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0.294 (49th)
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103.53 (100th)
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42.53 (40th)
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-1.42 (244th)
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2.97 (58th)
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-12.05 (355th)
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-8.17 (26th)
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-4.97 (363rd)
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0.56 (156th)
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65.62 (257th)
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Pace
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68.01 (91st)
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 IN POSSESSION
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UNI
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ARK
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| Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
| Eff |
110.84 |
114 |
96.33 |
25 |
| FTAR |
27.64 |
160 |
23.72 |
60 |
| FT% |
68.59 |
301 |
-- |
-- |
| FGAR |
85.14 |
270 |
88.82 |
258 |
| FG% |
46.94 |
59 |
38.86 |
14 |
| 3P% |
37.47 |
34 |
30.29 |
24 |
| MR% |
38.22 |
146 |
31.87 |
21 |
| NP% |
59.93 |
127 |
51.46 |
13 |
| PPSt |
9.94 |
300 |
11.14 |
106 |
| SCC% |
6.14 |
162 |
4.86 |
53 |
| Prox |
1.96 |
72 |
1.98 |
263 |
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 IN POSSESSION
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ARK
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UNI
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| Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
| Eff |
116.92 |
57 |
102.55 |
80 |
| FTAR |
32.22 |
32 |
22.99 |
38 |
| FT% |
74.01 |
113 |
-- |
-- |
| FGAR |
86.66 |
201 |
87.72 |
210 |
| FG% |
47.49 |
45 |
42.58 |
104 |
| 3P% |
33.96 |
180 |
33.98 |
170 |
| MR% |
39.15 |
113 |
36.79 |
146 |
| NP% |
65.52 |
21 |
55.48 |
63 |
| PPSt |
15.27 |
38 |
12.38 |
198 |
| SCC% |
7.56 |
50 |
6.41 |
229 |
| Prox |
1.98 |
98 |
2.02 |
167 |
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NORTHERN IOWA IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the Arkansas defense, this Northern Iowa offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. The Arkansas defense is ranked #25 in Division I, while Northern Iowa comes in nationally at #114 on offense.  | SHOT SELECTION: The Northern Iowa offense exhibits a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Arkansas defense is more balanced, allowing a mixture of shots from both the paint and the perimeter. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Northern Iowa offense will be 35.6% three-pointers (3.1% below the D1 average), 21.0% mid-range jumpers (3.7% below the D1 average), and 43.4% near-proximity twos (6.8% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Northern Iowa has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #59 team in overall field goal percentage this season. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has done exceptional work to keep opponents' shooting percentages in check (nationally ranked #14 in defensive field goal conversion rate). On this end of the court, the Arkansas defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Northern Iowa to shoot 33.1% from three (1.0% below the D1 average), 31.1% from the mid-range (6.4% below the D1 average), 52.4% from near-proximity locations (6.4% below the D1 average), and 41.1% overall (2.9% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Arkansas may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Northern Iowa lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're similarly unremarkable, coming in at #162 nationally in our ratings there. The opposition here, Arkansas, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they have been better squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 53rd in that category). | | TURNOVERS: The Arkansas defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Northern Iowa offense. Offensively, Northern Iowa rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. As for the opposition, the Arkansas D is fairly aggressive and is certainly capable of coming away with their fair share of steals. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 38th in that category). | | FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Northern Iowa offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (160th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're not one of the better shooting teams from there (68.6%, ranked #301 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive Arkansas defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 60th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION:
There isn't much of an advantage either way here when Arkansas is in possession of the basketball. This site rates Arkansas to be 57th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Northern Iowa is currently our #80 squad in defensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Northern Iowa defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 37.0% three-pointers (1.7% below the D1 average), 23.8% mid-range jumpers (0.9% below the D1 average), and 39.2% near-proximity twos (2.6% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 45th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Northern Iowa defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #104 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Arkansas offense has an analytical edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect Arkansas to shoot 34.3% from behind the arc (0.2% above the D1 average), 38.9% from mid-range locations (1.5% above the D1 average), 63.1% from near-proximity (4.2% above the D1 average), and 46.7% overall (2.7% above the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Arkansas may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. Arkansas seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 50th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Northern Iowa, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they're slightly worse in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 229th in the country there). | | TURNOVERS: Arkansas will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Northern Iowa defense. On offense, Arkansas is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 106th in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the Northern Iowa defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #300 ranking in that category. | | FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Arkansas is a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (nationally ranked #32 in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.0%, 113th in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved Northern Iowa defense predictably does a superb job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 38th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Arkansas (91st in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Northern Iowa (257th) is content with slowing down the gameplay. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: Northern Iowa may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home. | | MOMENTUM: Arkansas appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (58th in the country in positive momentum), while Northern Iowa (244th) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests. | | CONSISTENCY: Arkansas appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (26th in the nation in consistency), while Northern Iowa (tenth from the bottom in consistency) has been much more erratic. |
THE VERDICT:
Northern Iowa has a shot to win, but Arkansas is definitely the better team on paper. Arkansas 76.47, Northern Iowa 65.00. |
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