TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Northern Iowa  9-7 (0.563)  |  Missouri Valley
-- AT --
Arkansas  11-4 (0.733)  |  SEC
Includes games through January 10, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.744 (93rd)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.882 (44th)
0.479 (156th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.514 (114th)
0.077 (141st)
   Record Quality
  
0.254 (68th)
111.59 (106th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
42.72 (39th)
-1.62 (271st)
   Momentum
  
-1.03 (243rd)
-11.61 (344th)
   Consistency
  
-8.80 (161st)
-5.72 (357th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.08 (135th)
65.88 (250th)
Pace
69.01 (85th)
IN POSSESSION
UNI
ARK
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 112.07 85 97.60 56
FTAR 29.05 109 24.01 82
FT% 69.88 252 -- --
FGAR 83.20 309 83.92 79
FG% 48.65 24 41.81 93
3P% 36.63 63 32.33 138
MR% 47.26 19 41.40 190
NP% 59.28 128 52.33 55
PPSt 10.92 259 12.31 169
SCC% 6.29 120 3.95 31
Prox 1.93 28 2.03 191
IN POSSESSION
ARK
UNI
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 115.81 46 103.49 116
FTAR 27.20 167 23.54 65
FT% 71.02 215 -- --
FGAR 84.85 234 85.24 122
FG% 50.75 4 44.08 180
3P% 34.72 118 32.89 165
MR% 49.50 7 41.33 186
NP% 67.40 6 60.37 274
PPSt 15.88 48 12.01 148
SCC% 7.03 62 5.23 138
Prox 1.99 108 2.09 83
NORTHERN IOWA IN POSSESSION:
The Arkansas defense appears to have a small advantage on the Northern Iowa offense at this end of the court. Arkansas is currently 56th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Northern Iowa nationally comes in at #85 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Northern Iowa offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Arkansas defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Northern Iowa offense will be 36.0% three-pointers (2.5% below the D1 average), 19.3% mid-range jumpers (7.4% below the D1 average), and 44.7% near-proximity twos (9.9% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Northern Iowa is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 24th in overall field goal conversion rate. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #93 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Northern Iowa offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Arkansas defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Northern Iowa to shoot 34.9% from three (1.4% above the D1 average), 48.0% from the mid-range (7.0% above the D1 average), 54.3% from near-proximity locations (3.1% below the D1 average), and 46.1% overall (2.3% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Arkansas may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Northern Iowa appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #120 in that department). Arkansas, meanwhile, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #31 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: The Arkansas defense has a small advantage over the Northern Iowa offense in the turnover battle on this end. On offense, Northern Iowa is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Meanwhile, the Arkansas defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #48 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #79 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Northern Iowa is a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #109 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.9%, 252nd in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Arkansas defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 82nd in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION:
When pitted against the Northern Iowa defense, the Arkansas offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. The Arkansas offense is ranked #46 in Division I, while Northern Iowa comes in nationally at #116 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: The Arkansas offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Northern Iowa defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Northern Iowa defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 38.3% three-pointers (0.2% below the D1 average), 27.6% mid-range jumpers (0.9% above the D1 average), and 34.1% near-proximity twos (0.7% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked fourth in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Northern Iowa defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 180th nationally in that category. The Arkansas offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Arkansas to shoot 34.4% from behind the arc (0.9% above the D1 average), 50.8% from mid-range locations (9.7% above the D1 average), 72.0% from near-proximity (14.6% above the D1 average), and 51.7% overall (7.9% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Arkansas is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they are quite proficient at scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 62nd in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Northern Iowa, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, but they perform slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #138 in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Arkansas offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Northern Iowa defense. When in possession, Arkansas rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. As for the opposition, the Northern Iowa D is a tad more conservative than most D1 units. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #259 ranking in that category.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Arkansas obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (167th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (71.0%, ranked #215 in Division I). Meanwhile, the more reserved Northern Iowa defense, as expected, keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking 65th in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Arkansas (85th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Northern Iowa (250th) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Northern Iowa may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Neither one of these teams has played its best basketball as of late. Northern Iowa is 271st in the country in positive momentum, while Arkansas presently ranks 243rd.
CONSISTENCY: Northern Iowa is one of the NCAA's more inconsistent teams, ranking 344th nationally in consistency. Arkansas rates closer to the D1 average.

THE VERDICT:
Northern Iowa definitely has a chance, but Arkansas is the right pick here. Arkansas 78.43, Northern Iowa 68.58.