Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Penn 8-19 (0.296) | Ivy
-- AT --
Arkansas 22-14 (0.611) | SEC

Includes games through April 3, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.204 (290^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.904 (36^th)

0.451 (161^st)

Schedule Strength

0.729 (32^nd)

-0.220 (297^th)

Record Quality

0.294 (49^th)

288.32 (293^rd)

Avg. Season Rank

42.53 (40^th)

-3.65 (325^th)

Momentum

2.97 (58^th)

-11.03 (334^th)

Consistency

-8.17 (26^th)

-1.45 (276^th)

Away/Home Court

0.56 (156^th)

66.61 (184^th)

Pace

68.01 (91^st)

IN POSSESSION

	PENN		ARK
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	103.74	241	96.33	25
FTAR	24.78	279	23.72	60
FT%	69.39	277	--	--
FGAR	86.22	225	88.82	258
FG%	42.67	231	38.86	14
3P%	33.81	188	30.29	24
MR%	32.63	333	31.87	21
NP%	59.30	158	51.46	13
PPSt	9.55	310	11.14	106
SCC%	4.66	304	4.86	53
Prox	2.09	296	1.98	263

IN POSSESSION

	ARK		PENN
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	116.92	57	116.66	330
FTAR	32.22	32	24.70	85
FT%	74.01	113	--	--
FGAR	86.66	201	92.60	355
FG%	47.49	45	45.91	273
3P%	33.96	180	37.40	333
MR%	39.15	113	37.64	189
NP%	65.52	21	60.66	250
PPSt	15.27	38	12.96	238
SCC%	7.56	50	6.78	274
Prox	1.98	98	2.00	213

PENN IN POSSESSION:
From a statistical vantage point, Penn will likely have plenty of struggles overcoming the Arkansas D on this end of the court. This site rates Arkansas to be 25th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Penn is currently our #241 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The Penn offense leans slightly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the Arkansas defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Penn offense will be 42.5% three-pointers (3.8% above the D1 average), 19.8% mid-range jumpers (4.9% below the D1 average), and 37.7% near-proximity twos (1.1% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Penn has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 231st nationally in that category this year. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has done exceptional work to keep opponents' shooting percentages in check (nationally ranked #14 in defensive field goal conversion rate). The Arkansas defense has a sizeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Penn to shoot 30.1% from three (4.0% below the D1 average), 25.3% from the mid-range (12.2% below the D1 average), 50.8% from near-proximity locations (8.0% below the D1 average), and 37.0% overall (7.0% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Arkansas will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Penn appears to be a unit that is below-average by NCAA standards on the offensive glass. They're also quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 304th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Arkansas, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they have been better squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 53rd in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Arkansas defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Penn offense. When in possession, Penn rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Arkansas D is fairly aggressive and is certainly capable of coming away with their fair share of steals. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 38th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: Penn should obtain a meager number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're usually a team that isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #279 in free throw attempt rate), and they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.4%, 277th in the country). As for the opposition, the aggressive Arkansas defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 60th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION:
When in possession of the basketball, Arkansas should have little trouble dealing with the Penn defense. Arkansas is currently 57th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Penn nationally comes in at #330 in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Penn defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 34.9% three-pointers (3.8% below the D1 average), 26.6% mid-range jumpers (1.9% above the D1 average), and 38.5% near-proximity twos (1.9% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 45th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Penn defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#273 in the country). The Arkansas offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Arkansas to shoot 37.9% from behind the arc (3.8% above the D1 average), 39.5% from mid-range locations (2.0% above the D1 average), 67.7% from near-proximity (8.9% above the D1 average), and 49.8% overall (5.8% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Arkansas should have a monstrous rebounding edge at this end. Arkansas seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 50th nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Penn, has the appearance of a team whose defensive rebounding abilities are a bit subpar, and they've likewise performed a bit below-average when trying to suppress foes' second-chance conversion rates (rated #274 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
	TURNOVERS: Arkansas will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Penn defense. Offensively, Arkansas is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 106th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Penn defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #310 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#355 in the nation).
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Arkansas likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (32nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.0%, ranked #113 in Division I). Meanwhile, the more reserved Penn defense predictably does a fine job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 85th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. Arkansas (91st in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while Penn (184th) likes things at more of an average clip.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Penn may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
	MOMENTUM: Arkansas appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (58th in the country in positive momentum), while Penn (325th) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
	CONSISTENCY: Arkansas appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (26th in the nation in consistency), while Penn (334th in consistency) has been much more erratic.

THE VERDICT:
On paper, this one should be a beatdown. Arkansas rolls to an easy victory here. Arkansas 86.24, Penn 61.11.