TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Penn  4-9 (0.308)  |  Ivy
-- AT --
Arkansas  10-2 (0.833)  |  SEC
Includes games through December 29, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.132 (317th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.934 (25th)
0.433 (223rd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.494 (130th)
-0.217 (282nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.365 (35th)
294.65 (307th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
44.53 (41st)
1.62 (78th)
   Momentum
  
1.83 (70th)
-9.39 (219th)
   Consistency
  
-9.31 (214th)
-1.11 (239th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.57 (102nd)
65.44 (285th)
Pace
69.11 (93rd)
IN POSSESSION
PENN
ARK
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 99.57 296 96.88 38
FTAR 24.75 239 21.06 28
FT% 66.33 310 -- --
FGAR 86.37 161 83.07 67
FG% 40.97 311 42.58 104
3P% 31.76 270 32.46 111
MR% 33.82 352 40.99 165
NP% 56.33 216 56.49 132
PPSt 8.82 329 13.32 239
SCC% 4.43 289 4.47 71
Prox 2.09 276 2.08 92
IN POSSESSION
ARK
PENN
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 119.78 30 115.01 316
FTAR 26.33 190 22.04 42
FT% 71.65 184 -- --
FGAR 85.10 220 95.07 362
FG% 52.82 1 45.16 210
3P% 38.41 42 38.07 324
MR% 48.25 28 36.54 60
NP% 68.98 4 58.46 192
PPSt 16.21 46 12.99 217
SCC% 9.24 12 6.03 218
Prox 1.96 52 1.98 295
PENN IN POSSESSION:
The Arkansas defense is very likely going to create all kinds of problems for the Penn offense. The Arkansas defense is ranked #38 in Division I, while Penn comes in nationally at #296 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Penn offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Arkansas defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Penn offense will be 47.6% three-pointers (8.6% above the D1 average), 18.6% mid-range jumpers (7.4% below the D1 average), and 33.9% near-proximity twos (1.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Penn has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 311th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #104 team nationally in that category). The Arkansas defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Penn to shoot 30.0% from three (4.2% below the D1 average), 32.2% from the mid-range (9.2% below the D1 average), 53.9% from near-proximity locations (3.9% below the D1 average), and 38.5% overall (5.8% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Arkansas would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Penn appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #289 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Arkansas, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise been proficient preventing foes from scoring via putbacks (ranked #71 in the NCAA in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: Penn may struggle with turnovers against this Arkansas defense. Offensively, Penn is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Arkansas defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #46 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #67 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Penn offense here. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (239th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're not one of the better shooting teams from there (66.3%, ranked #310 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Arkansas defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 28th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION:
Arkansas has quite the significant statistical advantage over Penn on this end of the floor. This site rates Arkansas to be 30th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Penn is currently our #316 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Arkansas offense exhibits a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Penn defense is more balanced, allowing a mixture of shots from both the paint and the perimeter. Against the Penn defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 30.2% three-pointers (8.8% below the D1 average), 30.1% mid-range jumpers (4.1% above the D1 average), and 39.7% near-proximity twos (4.7% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked first in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Penn defense rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #210 nationally in that category). The Arkansas offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Arkansas to shoot 43.5% from behind the arc (9.3% above the D1 average), 43.0% from mid-range locations (1.6% above the D1 average), 68.8% from near-proximity (11.0% above the D1 average), and 53.4% overall (9.1% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Arkansas appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. Arkansas is really nothing special on the offensive glass. That being said, they're actually sensational at scoring quickly off of any second-chance opportunities they obtain (nationally rated #12 in that department). Meanwhile, Penn should be considered slightly inferior in the category of defensive rebounding, but they perform slightly better in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #218 in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Arkansas offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Penn defense. On offense, Arkansas rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Penn defense won't typically generate ball-security issues for opposing offenses. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #329 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#362 in the nation).
FREE THROWS: Arkansas will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #190 in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (71.6%, 184th in the country). As for the opposition, the conservative Penn defense, as expected, really keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking 42nd in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Arkansas (93rd in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Penn (285th) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Arkansas may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, superior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Arkansas is 70th nationally in positive momentum, while Penn presently ranks 78th.
CONSISTENCY: Arkansas is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.

THE VERDICT:
Arkansas should be an easy winner here. Penn just doesn't have what it takes to stay competitive. Arkansas 86.91, Penn 58.84.