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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through January 21, 2025. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.355 (235th)
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0.871 (49th)
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0.431 (215th)
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0.591 (54th)
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-0.120 (237th)
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0.172 (96th)
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219.64 (216th)
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43.18 (41st)
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0.55 (145th)
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-4.24 (347th)
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-12.07 (353rd)
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-8.29 (66th)
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-1.03 (237th)
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2.60 (49th)
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68.32 (79th)
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Pace
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67.97 (91st)
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IN POSSESSION
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GWB
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ARK
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
105.05 |
210 |
98.78 |
57 |
FTAR |
28.15 |
145 |
24.53 |
84 |
FT% |
68.67 |
283 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
82.80 |
323 |
85.11 |
126 |
FG% |
45.82 |
102 |
41.19 |
65 |
3P% |
35.50 |
125 |
33.46 |
133 |
MR% |
40.51 |
201 |
39.47 |
119 |
NP% |
57.13 |
169 |
50.71 |
34 |
PPSt |
9.28 |
326 |
11.84 |
160 |
SCC% |
8.04 |
23 |
3.67 |
15 |
Prox |
1.91 |
17 |
2.03 |
189 |
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IN POSSESSION
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ARK
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GWB
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
115.49 |
58 |
111.82 |
262 |
FTAR |
28.17 |
143 |
30.74 |
292 |
FT% |
70.57 |
236 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
86.88 |
147 |
87.29 |
230 |
FG% |
49.05 |
18 |
44.61 |
189 |
3P% |
34.85 |
158 |
33.19 |
120 |
MR% |
46.23 |
28 |
43.32 |
256 |
NP% |
64.57 |
20 |
57.50 |
185 |
PPSt |
15.17 |
54 |
19.42 |
364 |
SCC% |
6.29 |
132 |
7.37 |
328 |
Prox |
1.98 |
77 |
2.02 |
205 |
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GARDNER-WEBB IN POSSESSION: The Arkansas defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Gardner-Webb offense in this particular matchup. The Arkansas defense is ranked #57 in Division I, while Gardner-Webb comes in nationally at #210 on offense. | SHOT SELECTION: These two teams exhibit contrasting shot preferences on this end of the court. The Gardner-Webb offense is largely in favor of inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Arkansas defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Gardner-Webb offense will be 33.1% three-pointers (5.5% below the D1 average), 23.8% mid-range jumpers (2.7% below the D1 average), and 43.1% near-proximity twos (8.3% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Gardner-Webb has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #102 team in overall field goal percentage. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #65 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Arkansas defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Gardner-Webb to shoot 33.9% from three (0.5% below the D1 average), 38.1% from the mid-range (3.1% below the D1 average), 50.9% from near-proximity locations (6.1% below the D1 average), and 42.2% overall (1.8% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Arkansas may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Gardner-Webb has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. To boot, they are sensational at scoring quickly off of any second-chance opportunities they obtain (nationally rated #23 in that department). Arkansas, meanwhile, is extremely stout on the defensive glass, and they're similarly outstanding in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (nationally ranked 15th in that category). | | TURNOVERS: Turnovers should be a large-scale concern for Gardner-Webb here. When in possession, Gardner-Webb is an extremely disorganized and sloppy unit, plagued by giveaways. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 323rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is embarrassingly poor (last in the country). Meanwhile, the Arkansas defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 54th in that category). | | FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Gardner-Webb obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #145 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.7%, 283rd in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Arkansas defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 84th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION: When in possession of the basketball, Arkansas should have little trouble dealing with the Gardner-Webb defense. This site rates Arkansas to be 58th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Gardner-Webb is currently our #262 squad in defensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Gardner-Webb defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 35.2% three-pointers (3.4% below the D1 average), 25.8% mid-range jumpers (0.7% below the D1 average), and 39.0% near-proximity twos (4.1% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 18th in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Gardner-Webb defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 189th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Arkansas offense has a notable advantage in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Gardner-Webb defense has the edge in three-point shooting. We expect Arkansas to shoot 34.0% from behind the arc (0.4% below the D1 average), 49.2% from mid-range locations (8.1% above the D1 average), 65.3% from near-proximity (8.3% above the D1 average), and 50.1% overall (6.1% above the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Arkansas should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. Arkansas appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're similarly run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 132nd in that category). The opposition here, Gardner-Webb, has the appearance of a team whose defensive rebounding abilities are a bit subpar, and they've likewise been very ineffective stopping opponents from scoring on offensive putbacks (ranked #328 in defensive second-chance conversion rate). | | TURNOVERS: Arkansas will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Gardner-Webb defense. Offensively, Arkansas rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. As for the opposition, the Gardner-Webb D is a tad more conservative than most D1 units. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #326 ranking in that category. | | FREE THROWS: Arkansas will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (143rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (70.6%, ranked #236 in Division I). As for the opposition, the more reserved Gardner-Webb defense sends opposing offenses to the free throw line more often than one would expect, ranking 292nd nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: The tempo in a game between these two teams should be a bit faster than normal. Neither of these squads has an issue with running in transition. Gardner-Webb is 79th in the country in game pace, while Arkansas currently ranks 91st. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: Arkansas may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, far superior to their performances away from home. | | MOMENTUM: Gardner-Webb has the advantage in this category, as Arkansas has not been playing up to their norm as of late (nationally ranked 347th in positive momentum). | | CONSISTENCY: Arkansas appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (66th in the nation in consistency), while Gardner-Webb (353rd in consistency) has been much more erratic. |
THE VERDICT: An upset is not a complete impossibility, but Arkansas should have this one well in hand. Arkansas 85.34, Gardner-Webb 65.71. |
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