TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Penn State  5-0 (1.000)  |  Big Ten
-- AT --
Ohio State  4-1 (0.800)  |  Big Ten
Includes games through November 24, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.879 (45th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.937 (24th)
0.303 (314th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.466 (179th)
0.437 (25th)
   Record Quality
  
0.291 (57th)
43.82 (41st)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
31.86 (30th)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-12.77 (311th)
   Consistency
  
-11.13 (283rd)
2.42 (36th)
   Away/Home Court   
7.72 (43rd)
72.43 (19th)
   Pace
68.77 (213th)
IN POSSESSION
PSU
OSU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 114.47 41 95.42 25
FTAR 30.78 32 26.16 141
FT% 74.19 117 -- --
FGAR 84.85 221 86.12 235
FG% 47.17 37 38.81 9
3P% 36.82 29 29.84 12
MR% 39.58 167 33.35 11
NP% 61.72 60 55.22 76
PPSt 15.66 17 9.70 25
SCC% 5.50 163 4.86 80
Prox 1.98 89 2.05 83
IN POSSESSION
OSU
PSU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 115.45 33 97.94 51
FTAR 27.77 134 25.70 113
FT% 73.33 132 -- --
FGAR 88.18 42 83.24 55
FG% 46.62 54 42.38 95
3P% 38.13 10 33.36 156
MR% 40.24 130 38.32 138
NP% 62.25 50 53.81 37
PPSt 11.52 205 13.35 287
SCC% 6.21 78 4.78 70
Prox 2.06 276 1.99 280
PENN STATE IN POSSESSION:
The Penn State offense and the Ohio State defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. The Ohio State defense is ranked #25 in Division I, while Penn State comes in nationally at #41 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The Penn State offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Ohio State defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Ohio State defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Penn State offense will be 35.3% three-pointers (2.5% below the D1 average), 30.8% mid-range jumpers (4.2% above the D1 average), and 33.9% near-proximity twos (1.7% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Penn State does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 37th in the country in overall field goal percentage. The Ohio State defense, meanwhile, has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating ninth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. On this end of the court, the Ohio State defense gets the analytical nod in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Penn State to shoot 32.4% from three (1.3% below the D1 average), 32.7% from the mid-range (6.7% below the D1 average), 59.1% from near-proximity locations (1.4% above the D1 average), and 41.6% overall (2.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Ohio State may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Penn State lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're similarly unremarkable, coming in at #163 nationally in our ratings there. The opposition here, Ohio State, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've likewise done fairly acceptable work containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #80 in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Ohio State defense has a small advantage over the Penn State offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, Penn State isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 287th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Ohio State defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Penn State is a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (nationally ranked #32 in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.2%, ranked #117 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Ohio State D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 141st in the country in that category.

OHIO STATE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when Ohio State is on offense. Ohio State is currently 33rd in the country in offensive efficiency, while Penn State nationally comes in at #51 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Ohio State offense leans slightly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the Penn State defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the Penn State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Ohio State offense will be 37.9% three-pointers (0.1% above the D1 average), 27.0% mid-range jumpers (0.4% above the D1 average), and 35.1% near-proximity twos (0.5% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Ohio State has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #54 team in overall field goal percentage this season. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 95th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Ohio State offense has an analytical edge in three-point shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Ohio State to shoot 38.4% from behind the arc (4.6% above the D1 average), 39.8% from mid-range locations (0.5% above the D1 average), 58.9% from near-proximity (1.2% above the D1 average), and 46.0% overall (2.2% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. Ohio State has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 78th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, Penn State, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've similarly been solid squashing opponents' putback conversion rates (nationally ranked 70th in that category).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. Offensively, Ohio State protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 42nd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (25th in the country). Meanwhile, the Penn State defense is very aggressive and has the potential to come away with a plethora of steals. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #17 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #55 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Ohio State obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (134th in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (73.3%, 132nd in the country). Meanwhile, the aggressive Penn State defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 113th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly faster tempo than normal when these two ball-clubs meet. Penn State (19th nationally in game pace) prefers a faster tempo, while Ohio State (213th) likes more of an in-between game speed.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Penn State has performed far better away from home this year than they have at home. Unfortunately for them, they face Ohio State, who has played their very best basketball this season in front of their home crowd.
CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Penn State ranks 311th in the country in consistency, while Ohio State is currently 283rd in that category.

THE VERDICT:
We like Ohio State here, but don't count Penn State out entirely. They'll have a fighting chance. Ohio State 80.37, Penn State 73.53.