TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
ETSU  4-2 (0.667)  |  Southern
-- AT --
VMI  4-3 (0.571)  |  Southern
Includes games through November 24, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.479 (190th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.129 (318th)
0.272 (330th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.489 (151st)
-0.092 (213th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.132 (234th)
173.23 (169th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
336.86 (342nd)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-5.04 (38th)
   Consistency
  
-5.92 (64th)
2.15 (40th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.00 (268th)
68.74 (215th)
Pace
  
73.54 (9th)
IN POSSESSION
ETSU
VMI
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 102.75 209 109.16 270
FTAR 26.15 223 28.02 231
FT% 61.73 341 -- --
FGAR 88.17 43 87.16 290
FG% 42.46 243 44.72 217
3P% 32.97 226 32.48 93
MR% 37.90 257 41.05 247
NP% 56.52 204 59.58 253
PPSt 11.84 183 16.17 363
SCC% 5.75 128 4.25 32
Prox 2.05 267 2.01 212
IN POSSESSION
VMI
ETSU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 95.62 333 103.84 129
FTAR 25.34 265 29.83 304
FT% 75.56 78 -- --
FGAR 82.86 332 82.03 21
FG% 40.25 339 45.56 273
3P% 30.27 337 32.87 116
MR% 38.83 212 42.23 289
NP% 52.75 327 59.76 260
PPSt 9.94 313 11.67 151
SCC% 5.40 179 5.45 188
Prox 2.05 255 1.98 302
ETSU IN POSSESSION:
The ETSU offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the VMI defense at this end of the floor. ETSU is currently 209th in the country in offensive efficiency, while VMI nationally comes in at #270 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The ETSU offense leans slightly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the VMI defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the VMI defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the ETSU offense will be 41.3% three-pointers (3.5% above the D1 average), 21.4% mid-range jumpers (5.2% below the D1 average), and 37.2% near-proximity twos (1.7% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: ETSU has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #243 in overall field goal conversion rate. The VMI defense, meanwhile, rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #217 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the ETSU offense has the ratings advantage in near-proximity shooting, the VMI defense has the edge in three-point shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. This site expects ETSU to shoot 31.5% from three (2.3% below the D1 average), 39.0% from the mid-range (0.3% below the D1 average), 57.7% from near-proximity locations (a touch below the D1 average), and 42.8% overall (0.9% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. ETSU lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're similarly unremarkable, coming in at #128 nationally in our ratings there. Their opponent in this matchup, VMI, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #32 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: ETSU will likely keep the basketball very secure against this VMI defense. On offense, ETSU rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the VMI D is more conservatively-minded and won't typically come away with a lot of steals. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #313 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#290 in the nation).
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. ETSU is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (223rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.7%, ranked #341 in Division I). Meanwhile, the conservative VMI defense sports a relatively mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 231st in the NCAA this season.

VMI IN POSSESSION:
The ETSU defense is very likely going to create all kinds of problems for the VMI offense. The ETSU defense is ranked #129 in Division I, while VMI comes in nationally at #333 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: The VMI offense leans slightly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the ETSU defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the ETSU defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the VMI offense will be 37.7% three-pointers (0.1% below the D1 average), 25.2% mid-range jumpers (1.4% below the D1 average), and 37.1% near-proximity twos (1.5% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: VMI has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 339th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the ETSU defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#273 in the country). On this end of the court, the VMI offense has a notable advantage in mid-range shooting, while the ETSU defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect VMI to shoot 29.6% from behind the arc (4.2% below the D1 average), 42.3% from mid-range locations (2.9% above the D1 average), 56.1% from near-proximity (1.6% below the D1 average), and 42.6% overall (1.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: ETSU may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. VMI has the fingerprint of a team whose offensive rebounding abilities are a bit worse than the D1 norm. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 179th in that category). Meanwhile, ETSU is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #188 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: The ETSU defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this VMI offense. When in possession, VMI will typically have well more than an average amount of ball-control issues. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 332nd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is embarrassingly poor (second from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the ETSU defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. VMI isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #265 in free throw attempt rate), though they're above-average shooters from there (75.6%, 78th in the country). As for the opposition, the ETSU D sends opposing offenses to the foul line too often and ranks 304th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The tempo in a game between these two teams should be a bit faster than normal. VMI (ninth in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while ETSU (215th) likes things at more of an average clip.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We expect a potential performance bump for visiting ETSU here. They have performed far better away from home this year than they have at home. To boot, they are facing VMI, a team that has played their worst basketball this season while in front of their home crowd.
CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. ETSU ranks 38th in the country in consistency, while VMI is presently 64th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
There isn't a large gap separating the abilities of these two squads. VMI will put up a fight, but ETSU gets the win. ETSU 76.82, VMI 71.75.