TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
VCU  12-4 (0.750)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 10, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.592 (149th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.846 (57th)
0.502 (129th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.443 (216th)
-0.076 (213th)
   Record Quality
  
0.224 (77th)
176.20 (173rd)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
58.88 (57th)
6.94 (3rd)
   Momentum
  
1.05 (117th)
-9.91 (270th)
   Consistency
  
-8.94 (177th)
-1.43 (256th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.72 (164th)
63.79 (345th)
   Pace
66.17 (236th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
VCU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.48 176 95.22 32
FTAR 26.18 215 26.77 171
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.86 30 83.24 60
FG% 42.36 241 40.89 64
3P% 34.58 126 31.52 96
MR% 42.55 121 38.89 110
NP% 54.90 241 50.86 32
PPSt 12.13 195 12.25 163
SCC% 4.78 273 6.11 218
Prox 2.17 347 1.96 330
IN POSSESSION
VCU
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 112.06 87 105.69 155
FTAR 29.05 110 32.49 328
FT% 68.60 284 -- --
FGAR 90.26 41 84.24 87
FG% 43.95 164 42.55 122
3P% 30.63 295 36.86 317
MR% 44.55 73 41.21 178
NP% 62.65 57 50.60 27
PPSt 15.72 51 12.38 176
SCC% 8.81 15 4.27 50
Prox 2.14 333 2.05 159
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The VCU defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Duquesne offense in this particular matchup. VCU is currently 32nd in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #176 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense leans strongly toward putting up more outside shots, while the VCU defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the VCU defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 36.8% three-pointers (1.7% below the D1 average), 35.7% mid-range jumpers (9.0% above the D1 average), and 27.5% near-proximity twos (7.3% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #241 in overall field goal conversion rate. The VCU defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 64th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the VCU defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 32.7% from three (0.7% below the D1 average), 40.3% from the mid-range (0.7% below the D1 average), 45.6% from near-proximity locations (11.8% below the D1 average), and 39.0% overall (4.8% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: VCU may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 273rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, VCU, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #218 in that category).
TURNOVERS: The VCU defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. When in possession, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the VCU defense exhibits a fair amount of pressure, which can occasionally create havoc for opposing offenses. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #51 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #60 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Duquesne is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #215 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the aggressive VCU defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 171st in the NCAA this season.

VCU IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, VCU should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The VCU offense is ranked #87 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #155 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The VCU offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the VCU offense will be 43.5% three-pointers (5.0% above the D1 average), 28.3% mid-range jumpers (1.6% above the D1 average), and 28.2% near-proximity twos (6.6% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: VCU rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #164 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #122 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the VCU offense has the ratings advantage in mid-range shooting, the Duquesne defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect VCU to shoot 33.4% from behind the arc (0.1% below the D1 average), 44.4% from mid-range locations (3.4% above the D1 average), 57.6% from near-proximity (0.2% above the D1 average), and 43.3% overall (0.5% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. VCU seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. To boot, they are first-class at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 15th nationally in that category. Meanwhile, Duquesne appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 50th in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. Offensively, VCU rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: The VCU offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're typically a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (110th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.6%, ranked #284 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 328th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor here. VCU (236th in the NCAA in game pace) adopts an intermediate tempo, but Duquesne (345th) is more likely to pump the brakes.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Duquesne may perform worse than expected here, as their efforts away from home, on average, have been more inferior than their performances at home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is third in the country in positive momentum, while VCU currently ranks 117th.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more inconsistent teams, ranking 270th nationally in consistency. VCU rates closer to the D1 average.

THE VERDICT:
VCU gets the nod in this matchup. They are comfortably the better team on this day. VCU 70.98, Duquesne 59.26.