TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Saint Joe's  9-4 (0.692)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.573 (156th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.752 (91st)
0.494 (132nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.425 (235th)
-0.141 (242nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.195 (98th)
183.11 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
112.07 (106th)
4.78 (11th)
   Momentum
  
2.54 (47th)
-8.28 (114th)
   Consistency
  
-9.48 (223rd)
-0.91 (223rd)
   Away/Home Court   
-3.97 (357th)
64.16 (340th)
   Pace
69.11 (89th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
STJS
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 99.84 68
FTAR 26.83 173 23.15 74
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 86.72 204
FG% 41.58 290 41.49 65
3P% 35.59 118 31.02 66
MR% 42.30 149 42.44 209
NP% 51.12 331 54.05 88
PPSt 12.77 170 15.57 322
SCC% 3.99 314 6.63 272
Prox 2.19 353 2.09 88
IN POSSESSION
STJS
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.34 151 104.79 131
FTAR 24.59 245 31.82 329
FT% 74.04 124 -- --
FGAR 85.58 207 84.81 113
FG% 45.24 135 41.85 78
3P% 34.27 177 36.96 293
MR% 47.03 44 41.02 164
NP% 59.21 139 48.03 10
PPSt 14.51 99 13.70 260
SCC% 5.16 229 3.86 31
Prox 2.13 313 2.03 195
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Saint Joe's defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Duquesne offense in this particular matchup. This site rates Saint Joe's to be 68th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #207 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Saint Joe's defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Saint Joe's defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 41.1% three-pointers (2.1% above the D1 average), 41.0% mid-range jumpers (14.9% above the D1 average), and 17.9% near-proximity twos (17.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Saint Joe's defense sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 65th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has a notable advantage in mid-range shooting, while the Saint Joe's defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 32.7% from three (1.5% below the D1 average), 42.7% from the mid-range (1.2% above the D1 average), 41.3% from near-proximity locations (16.4% below the D1 average), and 38.3% overall (6.0% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Saint Joe's may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Saint Joe's, meanwhile, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, but they've been a bit worse stopping opponents from converting on second-chance putbacks (rated 272nd in the country in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Saint Joe's defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. On offense, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the Saint Joe's defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 99th in that category).
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. The Duquesne offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #358 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Saint Joe's defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 74th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

SAINT JOE'S IN POSSESSION:
The Saint Joe's offense and the Duquesne defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. Duquesne is currently 131st in the country in defensive efficiency, while Saint Joe's nationally comes in at #151 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Saint Joe's offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Saint Joe's offense will be 39.6% three-pointers (0.6% above the D1 average), 32.6% mid-range jumpers (6.6% above the D1 average), and 27.8% near-proximity twos (7.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Saint Joe's rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #135 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Saint Joe's offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. We expect Saint Joe's to shoot 37.2% from behind the arc (3.0% above the D1 average), 45.9% from mid-range locations (4.5% above the D1 average), 49.2% from near-proximity (8.5% below the D1 average), and 43.4% overall (0.9% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Saint Joe's is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're similarly a relatively average unit, rated 229th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. The opposition here, Duquesne, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #31 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: Saint Joe's may struggle with turnovers against this Duquesne defense. When in possession, Saint Joe's isn't exactly a disciplined unit, as they are routinely too untrustworthy with the rock. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly inadequate, as the team places 322nd in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Saint Joe's is a team that isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #245 in free throw attempt rate), though they're above-average shooters from there (74.0%, 124th in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 329th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Saint Joe's (89th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Duquesne (340th) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Saint Joe's may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is 11th in the country in positive momentum, while Saint Joe's currently ranks 47th.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 114th nationally in consistency. Saint Joe's rates more in the middle of the pack.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne certainly has a shot to win here, but the numbers tell us that Saint Joe's is the right choice. Saint Joe's 70.98, Duquesne 62.44.