TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
George Mason  9-4 (0.692)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.573 (156th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.788 (77th)
0.494 (132nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.385 (298th)
-0.141 (242nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.113 (121st)
183.11 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
64.73 (63rd)
4.78 (11th)
   Momentum
  
0.87 (120th)
-8.28 (114th)
   Consistency
  
-6.92 (31st)
-0.91 (223rd)
   Away/Home Court   
4.33 (27th)
64.16 (340th)
   Pace
66.25 (235th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
GMU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 94.43 25
FTAR 26.83 173 23.94 106
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 88.49 284
FG% 41.58 290 37.27 6
3P% 35.59 118 29.98 38
MR% 42.30 149 35.35 38
NP% 51.12 331 49.71 24
PPSt 12.77 170 14.44 294
SCC% 3.99 314 4.96 112
Prox 2.19 353 2.14 28
IN POSSESSION
GMU
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.10 155 104.79 131
FTAR 33.40 20 31.82 329
FT% 72.05 171 -- --
FGAR 82.91 314 84.81 113
FG% 44.89 148 41.85 78
3P% 33.34 215 36.96 293
MR% 39.23 252 41.02 164
NP% 57.78 174 48.03 10
PPSt 12.70 176 13.70 260
SCC% 6.29 124 3.86 31
Prox 1.93 34 2.03 195
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the George Mason defense. George Mason is currently 25th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #207 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the George Mason defense similarly surrenders several more opportunities from the outside. Against the George Mason defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 48.8% three-pointers (9.8% above the D1 average), 30.3% mid-range jumpers (4.2% above the D1 average), and 20.9% near-proximity twos (14.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. The George Mason defense, meanwhile, has shown no mercy to opposing shooters, rating sixth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The George Mason defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 31.5% from three (2.7% below the D1 average), 36.7% from the mid-range (4.7% below the D1 average), 37.4% from near-proximity locations (20.4% below the D1 average), and 34.3% overall (10.0% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: George Mason will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). George Mason, meanwhile, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they have been a wee bit better containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #112 in that department).
TURNOVERS: The George Mason defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the George Mason D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Duquesne is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #173 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, seventh from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the George Mason D has been solid at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking 106th in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

GEORGE MASON IN POSSESSION:
The George Mason offense and the Duquesne defense are very evenly matched on this end of the floor. The Duquesne defense is ranked #131 in Division I, while George Mason comes in nationally at #155 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The George Mason offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the George Mason offense will be 30.7% three-pointers (8.3% below the D1 average), 30.6% mid-range jumpers (4.5% above the D1 average), and 38.7% near-proximity twos (3.8% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: George Mason rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #148 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the George Mason offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect George Mason to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc (2.9% above the D1 average), 39.6% from mid-range locations (1.8% below the D1 average), 50.3% from near-proximity (7.5% below the D1 average), and 43.0% overall (1.3% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. George Mason seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. They are also considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #124 in that department). The opposition here, Duquesne, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this George Mason offense. Offensively, George Mason isn't exactly a disciplined unit, as they are routinely too untrustworthy with the rock. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 314th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very shoddy (294th in the country). Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: You can expect plenty of chances at the free throw line for the George Mason offense here. They're typically a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (20th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.0%, ranked #171 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 329th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. George Mason (235th in the NCAA in game pace) adopts an intermediate tempo, but Duquesne (340th) is more likely to pump the brakes.
AWAY/HOME COURT: George Mason may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, far superior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is 11th in the country in positive momentum, while George Mason currently ranks 120th.
CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. George Mason ranks 31st nationally in consistency, while Duquesne is currently 114th in that category.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne definitely has a chance, but George Mason is the right pick here. George Mason 67.68, Duquesne 57.51.