Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Duquesne 13-19 (0.406) | Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Fordham 12-21 (0.364) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.631 (134^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.355 (235^th)

0.535 (111^th)

Schedule Strength

0.513 (130^th)

-0.061 (212^th)

Record Quality

-0.109 (235^th)

156.74 (154^th)

Avg. Season Rank

212.56 (214^th)

2.89 (58^th)

Momentum

-2.38 (287^th)

-10.28 (282^nd)

Consistency

-9.48 (188^th)

-0.35 (191^st)

Away/Home Court

-1.22 (338^th)

64.81 (298^th)

Pace

68.10 (83^rd)

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		FORD
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	108.01	170	112.69	266
FTAR	27.21	182	30.32	296
FT%	63.55	357	--	--
FGAR	88.59	106	86.65	156
FG%	43.73	181	46.65	300
3P%	34.13	170	36.75	317
MR%	39.31	102	36.43	133
NP%	60.81	109	59.55	202
PPSt	13.56	106	14.61	330
SCC%	5.29	252	6.33	223
Prox	2.13	338	1.88	363

IN POSSESSION

	FORD		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	106.87	187	105.64	117
FTAR	28.91	112	30.82	310
FT%	71.86	203	--	--
FGAR	87.65	157	83.24	33
FG%	42.33	253	43.73	153
3P%	32.68	252	37.12	326
MR%	37.01	191	36.26	127
NP%	56.10	262	55.94	81
PPSt	12.89	138	12.69	221
SCC%	6.19	152	5.71	140
Prox	2.04	228	1.97	288

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Duquesne should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense is ranked #170 in Division I, while Fordham comes in nationally at #266 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense leans solidly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Fordham defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Fordham defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 36.4% three-pointers (2.3% below the D1 average), 25.5% mid-range jumpers (0.8% above the D1 average), and 38.1% near-proximity twos (1.5% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 181st nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Fordham defense has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #300 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 35.9% from three (1.8% above the D1 average), 37.9% from the mid-range (0.5% above the D1 average), 60.5% from near-proximity locations (1.7% above the D1 average), and 45.8% overall (1.8% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 252nd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Fordham, rates as a unit that shouldn't be feared on the defensive boards, but they're slightly better in defensive putback conversion percentage (ranked 223rd in the country there).
	TURNOVERS: The Fordham defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. Offensively, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Fordham D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
	FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (182nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (63.5%, eighth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the Fordham D sends opposing offenses to the foul line too often and ranks 296th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

FORDHAM IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne defense appears to have a small advantage on the Fordham offense at this end of the court. This site rates Duquesne to be 117th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Fordham is currently our #187 squad in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Fordham offense leans slightly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Fordham offense will be 37.1% three-pointers (1.6% below the D1 average), 25.6% mid-range jumpers (0.9% above the D1 average), and 37.3% near-proximity twos (0.8% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Fordham hasn't been one of the better shooting D1 teams this season, ranking 253rd nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #153 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Fordham offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Fordham to shoot 35.6% from behind the arc (1.5% above the D1 average), 36.2% from mid-range locations (1.3% below the D1 average), 54.0% from near-proximity (4.8% below the D1 average), and 42.6% overall (1.3% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Fordham appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're similarly run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 152nd in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, Duquesne, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, but they perform slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #140 in that category).
	TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Fordham offense. On offense, Fordham isn't exactly a disciplined unit, as they are routinely too untrustworthy with the rock. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly inadequate, as the team places 330th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #106 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #33 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the Fordham offense here. They're typically a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #112 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (71.9%, ranked #203 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Duquesne defense, as expected, will be more likely to foul than most other D1 squads, ranking 310th in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Fordham (83rd in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Duquesne (298th) is content with slowing down the gameplay.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Fordham may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home.
	MOMENTUM: Duquesne has a sizeable momentum edge here. They come into this contest playing above their norm (58th in the country in positive momentum), while Fordham (287th) has performed a bit below their own standards recently.
	CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more inconsistent teams, ranking 282nd nationally in consistency. Fordham rates closer to the D1 average.

THE VERDICT:
We foresee Duquesne getting the win here, but the margin of victory should not be excessive. Duquesne 73.69, Fordham 70.27.