Haslametrics.com

Automated 2024-25 Game Preview

Duquesne 13-19 (0.406) | Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Dayton 23-11 (0.676) | Atlantic 10

Includes games through April 7, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.631 (134^th)

All-Play Percentage

0.791 (77^th)

0.535 (111^th)

Schedule Strength

0.598 (87^th)

-0.061 (212^th)

Record Quality

0.277 (56^th)

156.74 (154^th)

Avg. Season Rank

58.74 (58^th)

2.89 (58^th)

Momentum

-0.39 (196^th)

-10.28 (282^nd)

Consistency

-10.68 (318^th)

-0.35 (191^st)

Away/Home Court

-0.69 (293^rd)

64.81 (298^th)

Pace

65.41 (267^th)

IN POSSESSION

	DUQ		UD
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	108.01	170	106.00	126
FTAR	27.21	182	26.47	143
FT%	63.55	357	--	--
FGAR	88.59	106	85.94	121
FG%	43.73	181	43.43	139
3P%	34.13	170	34.01	174
MR%	39.31	102	32.76	36
NP%	60.81	109	60.87	257
PPSt	13.56	106	10.90	90
SCC%	5.29	252	5.54	120
Prox	2.13	338	2.03	152

IN POSSESSION

	UD		DUQ
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	116.00	62	105.64	117
FTAR	30.89	57	30.82	310
FT%	75.20	79	--	--
FGAR	86.88	194	83.24	33
FG%	45.62	98	43.73	153
3P%	36.53	63	37.12	326
MR%	34.48	287	36.26	127
NP%	60.44	117	55.94	81
PPSt	14.20	70	12.69	221
SCC%	5.41	238	5.71	140
Prox	2.03	196	1.97	288

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the Dayton defense, this Duquesne offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. Dayton is currently 126th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #170 in offensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Dayton defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Dayton defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 44.0% three-pointers (5.3% above the D1 average), 25.4% mid-range jumpers (0.6% above the D1 average), and 30.6% near-proximity twos (5.9% below the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #181 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Dayton defense, meanwhile, rates as somewhat average in defensive field goal conversion rate (ranked #139 nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has the ratings advantage in near-proximity shooting, the Dayton defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 33.7% from three (0.4% below the D1 average), 34.4% from the mid-range (3.0% below the D1 average), 62.3% from near-proximity locations (3.4% above the D1 average), and 42.6% overall (1.3% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Dayton may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #252 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Dayton, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 120th in the nation in that category).
	TURNOVERS: Duquesne may struggle with turnovers against this Dayton defense. On offense, Duquesne rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Dayton D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #70 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #121 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (182nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (63.5%, ranked #357 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious Dayton defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 143rd in the country in that category.

DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Dayton should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The Dayton offense is ranked #62 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #117 on defense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Dayton offense leans slightly toward putting up more outside shots, while the Duquesne defense conversely tends to give up a few more chances from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Dayton offense will be 38.1% three-pointers (0.6% below the D1 average), 22.2% mid-range jumpers (2.5% below the D1 average), and 39.7% near-proximity twos (3.2% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 98th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 153rd nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect Dayton to shoot 40.1% from behind the arc (6.0% above the D1 average), 33.9% from mid-range locations (3.5% below the D1 average), 58.7% from near-proximity (0.1% below the D1 average), and 46.1% overall (2.1% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: Duquesne may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Dayton is really nothing special on the offensive glass. As far as turning offensive rebounds into fast points, they're similarly a relatively average unit, rated 238th in the country in second-chance conversion rate. Meanwhile, Duquesne has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, but they're slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #140 in the country in that department).
	TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. When in possession, Dayton exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 90th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Duquesne defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #106 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #33 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: Dayton should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #57 in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (75.2%, 79th in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Duquesne defense, as expected, will be more likely to foul than most other D1 squads, ranking 310th in the nation in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:

	PACE: The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 298th in the country in game pace, while Dayton presently ranks 267th.
	AWAY/HOME COURT: Dayton may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, inferior to their performances away from home.
	MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 58th in the country in positive momentum.
	CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Dayton ranks 318th nationally in consistency, while Duquesne is presently 282nd in that category.

THE VERDICT:
This contest has the potential to be very competitive, but Dayton is the better team on this day. Dayton 73.51, Duquesne 65.87.