TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Dayton  10-3 (0.769)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.573 (156th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.904 (36th)
0.494 (132nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.594 (36th)
-0.141 (242nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.315 (51st)
183.11 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
38.86 (34th)
4.78 (11th)
   Momentum
  
-0.82 (237th)
-8.28 (114th)
   Consistency
  
-8.39 (129th)
-0.91 (223rd)
   Away/Home Court   
-2.63 (346th)
64.16 (340th)
   Pace
 
65.21 (295th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
UD
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 100.86 84
FTAR 26.83 173 26.02 163
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 84.63 107
FG% 41.58 290 40.99 57
3P% 35.59 118 32.47 112
MR% 42.30 149 31.12 4
NP% 51.12 331 60.41 258
PPSt 12.77 170 9.30 27
SCC% 3.99 314 4.79 97
Prox 2.19 353 2.09 91
IN POSSESSION
UD
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 120.51 22 104.79 131
FTAR 31.03 51 31.82 329
FT% 72.89 153 -- --
FGAR 86.47 161 84.81 113
FG% 49.60 17 41.85 78
3P% 36.20 99 36.96 293
MR% 43.74 112 41.02 164
NP% 65.91 18 48.03 10
PPSt 13.87 121 13.70 260
SCC% 6.41 114 3.86 31
Prox 1.99 106 2.03 195
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the Dayton defense. This site rates Dayton to be 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #207 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Dayton defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Dayton defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 45.8% three-pointers (6.8% above the D1 average), 31.7% mid-range jumpers (5.6% above the D1 average), and 22.5% near-proximity twos (12.4% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has certainly not converted field goals at a solid clip this season (rated our #290 team in overall field goal percentage). The Dayton defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #57 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Dayton defense gets the analytical nod in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 33.7% from three (0.4% below the D1 average), 33.1% from the mid-range (8.3% below the D1 average), 52.4% from near-proximity locations (5.4% below the D1 average), and 37.7% overall (6.6% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Dayton would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're one of the weaker D1 teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #314 in the country in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Dayton, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 97th in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Dayton defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, Duquesne has plenty of room for improvement when it comes to securing the basketball. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Dayton D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #121 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #107 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (173rd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #358 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Dayton D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 163rd in the country in that category.

DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
The Dayton offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the Duquesne defense in this matchup. Dayton is currently 22nd in the country in offensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #131 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Dayton offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Duquesne defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Dayton offense will be 34.9% three-pointers (4.1% below the D1 average), 28.2% mid-range jumpers (2.2% above the D1 average), and 36.9% near-proximity twos (1.9% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 17th in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 78th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect Dayton to shoot 39.7% from behind the arc (5.5% above the D1 average), 43.2% from mid-range locations (1.7% above the D1 average), 59.1% from near-proximity (1.4% above the D1 average), and 47.8% overall (3.5% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Dayton has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 114th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #31 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: Dayton will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Duquesne defense. Offensively, Dayton exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 27th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: Dayton should be able to get to the foul line early and often in this contest. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #51 in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.9%, 153rd in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 329th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Nobody will be in a huge rush to score in a contest such as this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 340th in the country in game pace, while Dayton presently ranks 295th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Dayton may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the advantage in this department. They've been playing better ball as of late and are currently ranked 11th in the country in positive momentum.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 114th nationally in consistency. Dayton rates more in the middle of the pack.

THE VERDICT:
An upset is not a complete impossibility, but Dayton should have this one well in hand. Dayton 74.62, Duquesne 58.87.