TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Duquesne  5-8 (0.385)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
St. Bonaventure  12-1 (0.923)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through December 28, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.573 (156th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.882 (44th)
0.494 (132nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.386 (296th)
-0.141 (242nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.394 (25th)
183.11 (185th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
87.50 (87th)
4.78 (11th)
   Momentum
  
1.28 (98th)
-8.28 (114th)
   Consistency
  
-9.23 (202nd)
-0.91 (223rd)
   Away/Home Court   
-2.19 (339th)
64.16 (340th)
   Pace
 
65.18 (297th)
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
BONA
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 104.61 207 93.41 17
FTAR 26.83 173 20.99 25
FT% 61.79 358 -- --
FGAR 88.89 72 87.33 228
FG% 41.58 290 38.39 17
3P% 35.59 118 29.84 37
MR% 42.30 149 38.07 83
NP% 51.12 331 52.46 56
PPSt 12.77 170 10.27 58
SCC% 3.99 314 4.58 78
Prox 2.19 353 2.16 16
IN POSSESSION
BONA
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 112.91 87 104.79 131
FTAR 29.39 85 31.82 329
FT% 72.32 163 -- --
FGAR 87.18 132 84.81 113
FG% 46.87 82 41.85 78
3P% 33.51 206 36.96 293
MR% 46.57 52 41.02 164
NP% 61.94 83 48.03 10
PPSt 16.31 41 13.70 260
SCC% 7.72 43 3.86 31
Prox 2.03 164 2.03 195
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the St. Bonaventure defense. This site rates St. Bonaventure to be 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #207 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the St. Bonaventure defense similarly surrenders significantly more opportunities from the outside. Against the St. Bonaventure defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Duquesne offense will be 48.2% three-pointers (9.2% above the D1 average), 33.8% mid-range jumpers (7.8% above the D1 average), and 18.0% near-proximity twos (17.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 290th nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the St. Bonaventure defense has been one of the best in the country when it comes to defensive field goal percentage, nationally rated 17th in that category. The St. Bonaventure defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Duquesne to shoot 31.4% from three (2.8% below the D1 average), 38.9% from the mid-range (2.5% below the D1 average), 39.1% from near-proximity locations (18.6% below the D1 average), and 35.3% overall (9.0% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: St. Bonaventure will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 314th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they have been a wee bit better containing foes' conversion rates off of second chances (nationally ranking #78 in that department).
TURNOVERS: The St. Bonaventure defense will likely force a fair share of turnovers against this Duquesne offense. When in possession, Duquesne isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals needs improvement, as the team places 260th in the nation in that category. As for the opposition, the St. Bonaventure D is fairly aggressive and is certainly capable of coming away with their fair share of steals. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 41st in that category).
FREE THROWS: Duquesne will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #173 in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.8%, ranked #358 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive St. Bonaventure defense surprisingly won't commit that many personal fouls and ranks 25th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

ST. BONAVENTURE IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, St. Bonaventure should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. The St. Bonaventure offense is ranked #87 in Division I, while Duquesne comes in nationally at #131 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The St. Bonaventure offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the St. Bonaventure offense will be 30.2% three-pointers (8.8% below the D1 average), 41.8% mid-range jumpers (15.7% above the D1 average), and 28.0% near-proximity twos (6.9% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: St. Bonaventure has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #82 team in overall field goal percentage. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #78 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the St. Bonaventure offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. We expect St. Bonaventure to shoot 37.1% from behind the arc (3.0% above the D1 average), 45.8% from mid-range locations (4.3% above the D1 average), 52.6% from near-proximity (5.2% below the D1 average), and 45.1% overall (0.8% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. St. Bonaventure seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 43rd nationally in that category. Duquesne, meanwhile, rates as a relatively solid unit on the defensive boards, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 31st in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The St. Bonaventure offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Duquesne defense. Offensively, St. Bonaventure exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 58th in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: The St. Bonaventure offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're typically a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (85th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (72.3%, 163rd in the country). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 329th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Nobody will be in a huge rush to score in a contest such as this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 340th in the country in game pace, while St. Bonaventure presently ranks 297th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: St. Bonaventure may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Duquesne is 11th in the country in positive momentum, while St. Bonaventure currently ranks 98th.
CONSISTENCY: Duquesne is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams, ranking 114th nationally in consistency. St. Bonaventure rates more in the middle of the pack.

THE VERDICT:
Duquesne could put up a fight, but we still expect St. Bonaventure to win somewhat comfortably. St. Bonaventure 69.45, Duquesne 55.87.