TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Little Rock  8-7 (0.533)  |  Ohio Valley
-- AT --
Arkansas  11-5 (0.688)  |  SEC
Includes games through January 11, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.328 (247th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.871 (48th)
0.370 (291st)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.543 (91st)
-0.092 (222nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.222 (72nd)
248.11 (246th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
42.80 (39th)
-1.87 (281st)
   Momentum
  
-1.56 (256th)
-9.28 (188th)
   Consistency
  
-8.66 (127th)
0.31 (114th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.29 (125th)
68.00 (127th)
Pace
68.57 (96th)
IN POSSESSION
UALR
ARK
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 93.01 349 96.88 47
FTAR 24.06 295 24.34 81
FT% 67.48 304 -- --
FGAR 82.78 325 84.34 89
FG% 41.01 301 41.26 72
3P% 32.04 247 31.48 96
MR% 32.96 359 39.85 139
NP% 60.74 89 53.06 66
PPSt 14.91 67 11.43 122
SCC% 4.11 313 3.92 29
Prox 2.03 179 2.04 170
IN POSSESSION
ARK
UALR
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 115.07 55 101.60 88
FTAR 29.62 102 33.13 335
FT% 70.71 223 -- --
FGAR 84.84 248 83.69 66
FG% 49.55 12 39.90 44
3P% 34.28 138 28.83 20
MR% 47.76 14 33.51 19
NP% 65.40 18 60.14 260
PPSt 15.71 43 18.29 358
SCC% 6.59 96 5.19 123
Prox 1.98 88 2.13 33
LITTLE ROCK IN POSSESSION:
The Arkansas defense should easily put the clamps on whatever offense Little Rock tries to muster. The Arkansas defense is ranked #47 in Division I, while Little Rock comes in nationally at #349 on offense.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Little Rock offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Arkansas defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Arkansas defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Little Rock offense will be 33.7% three-pointers (4.9% below the D1 average), 35.8% mid-range jumpers (9.3% above the D1 average), and 30.5% near-proximity twos (4.5% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Little Rock has struggled to consistently convert field goals this year, ranking 301st nationally in overall field goal percentage. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 72nd in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the Arkansas defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Little Rock to shoot 29.1% from three (4.4% below the D1 average), 31.4% from the mid-range (9.6% below the D1 average), 54.4% from near-proximity locations (3.0% below the D1 average), and 37.6% overall (6.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Arkansas has an enormous rebounding advantage at this end. Little Rock has the fingerprint of a team whose offensive rebounding abilities are a bit worse than the D1 norm. They're also one of the weaker D1 teams at converting second-chance opportunities into points, ranking #313 in the country in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, Arkansas, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #29 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: The Arkansas defense will likely create truckloads of ball-security issues for the Little Rock offense. When in possession, Little Rock is very irresponsible with the basketball and will give it away often. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 325th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is embarrassingly poor (seventh from the bottom in the country). Meanwhile, the Arkansas D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #43 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #89 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: Little Rock will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're usually a team that won't get to the charity stripe very often (nationally ranked #295 in free throw attempt rate), and they're not one of the better shooting teams from there (67.5%, 304th in the country). As for the opposition, the contentious Arkansas defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 81st nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

ARKANSAS IN POSSESSION:
The Arkansas offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the Little Rock defense at this end of the floor. This site rates Arkansas to be 55th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Little Rock is currently our #88 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Arkansas offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Little Rock defense typically allows several more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Little Rock defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Arkansas offense will be 40.7% three-pointers (2.1% above the D1 average), 25.8% mid-range jumpers (0.7% below the D1 average), and 33.5% near-proximity twos (1.4% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Arkansas has been converting field goals at a very high rate this season (nationally ranked #12 in overall field goal percentage). Meanwhile, the Little Rock defense has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #44 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the Arkansas offense has the ratings advantage in near-proximity shooting, the Little Rock defense has the edge in three-point shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. We expect Arkansas to shoot 29.4% from behind the arc (4.1% below the D1 average), 42.3% from mid-range locations (1.2% above the D1 average), 70.1% from near-proximity (12.7% above the D1 average), and 46.4% overall (2.5% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Arkansas may have a modest rebounding edge on this end of the floor. Arkansas lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 96th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Little Rock is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, but they have been a bit better in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 123rd in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: The Little Rock defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. Offensively, Arkansas is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 122nd in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the Little Rock defense exhibits a fair amount of pressure, which can occasionally create havoc for opposing offenses. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #67 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #66 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: The Arkansas offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're typically a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (102nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (70.7%, ranked #223 in Division I). Meanwhile, the aggressive Little Rock defense predictably commits a ridiculous number of fouls, ranking 335th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly faster tempo than normal when these two ball-clubs meet. Arkansas (96th in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while Little Rock (127th) likes things at more of an average clip.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Little Rock has performed better away from home this year than they have at home. Unfortunately for them, they face Arkansas, who has played their best basketball this season in front of their home crowd.
MOMENTUM: Neither one of these teams has played its best basketball as of late. Little Rock is 281st in the country in positive momentum, while Arkansas presently ranks 256th.
CONSISTENCY: Arkansas is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.

THE VERDICT:
Per the analytics, this one shouldn't be close. We'd expect Arkansas to roll. Arkansas 77.73, Little Rock 57.00.