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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through January 10, 2025. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.201 (291st)
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0.592 (149th)
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0.508 (120th)
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0.502 (129th)
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-0.127 (237th)
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-0.076 (213th)
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277.59 (278th)
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176.20 (173rd)
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-1.95 (288th)
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6.94 (3rd)
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-10.79 (319th)
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-9.91 (270th)
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0.06 (135th)
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1.43 (109th)
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68.58 (104th)
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63.79 (345th)
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IN POSSESSION
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ALST
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DUQ
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
105.18 |
194 |
105.69 |
155 |
FTAR |
25.64 |
226 |
32.49 |
328 |
FT% |
69.20 |
269 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
89.36 |
57 |
84.24 |
87 |
FG% |
41.97 |
262 |
42.55 |
122 |
3P% |
34.53 |
128 |
36.86 |
317 |
MR% |
39.38 |
237 |
41.21 |
178 |
NP% |
54.07 |
262 |
50.60 |
27 |
PPSt |
15.65 |
54 |
12.38 |
176 |
SCC% |
5.06 |
248 |
4.27 |
50 |
Prox |
2.09 |
282 |
2.05 |
159 |
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IN POSSESSION
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DUQ
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ALST
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
106.48 |
176 |
117.38 |
349 |
FTAR |
26.18 |
215 |
32.12 |
320 |
FT% |
61.26 |
356 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
90.86 |
30 |
86.33 |
178 |
FG% |
42.36 |
241 |
47.12 |
316 |
3P% |
34.58 |
126 |
35.87 |
287 |
MR% |
42.55 |
121 |
45.93 |
315 |
NP% |
54.90 |
241 |
61.93 |
312 |
PPSt |
12.13 |
195 |
8.98 |
11 |
SCC% |
4.78 |
273 |
8.30 |
351 |
Prox |
2.17 |
347 |
2.08 |
87 |
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ALABAMA STATE IN POSSESSION: The Duquesne defense appears to have a small advantage on the Alabama State offense at this end of the court. The Duquesne defense is ranked #155 in Division I, while Alabama State comes in nationally at #194 on offense. | SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Alabama State offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Alabama State offense will be 36.9% three-pointers (1.7% below the D1 average), 36.5% mid-range jumpers (9.8% above the D1 average), and 26.6% near-proximity twos (8.2% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Alabama State has been a below-average team in floor shooting this season and is ranked #262 in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #122 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Alabama State offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Alabama State to shoot 37.3% from three (3.8% above the D1 average), 39.6% from the mid-range (1.5% below the D1 average), 44.8% from near-proximity locations (12.5% below the D1 average), and 40.1% overall (3.7% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Duquesne would appear to have a comfortable rebounding advantage on this end. Alabama State is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 248th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). Meanwhile, Duquesne appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #50 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage). | | TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense likely won't force many turnovers against the Alabama State offense. Offensively, Alabama State does a really solid job to protect the basketball and minimize silly turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 57th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (11th in the country). Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. | | FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Alabama State obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #226 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.2%, ranked #269 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 328th in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION: On paper, Duquesne stands to have a comfortable analytical advantage at this end of the court. Duquesne is currently 176th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Alabama State nationally comes in at #349 in defensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Alabama State defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Alabama State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 46.8% three-pointers (8.3% above the D1 average), 27.7% mid-range jumpers (1.0% above the D1 average), and 25.6% near-proximity twos (9.3% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne hasn't been one of the better shooting D1 teams this season, ranking 241st nationally in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Alabama State defense usually fails to disrupt opposing shooters, ranking 316th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Duquesne offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Duquesne to shoot 36.9% from behind the arc (3.4% above the D1 average), 47.1% from mid-range locations (6.1% above the D1 average), 61.8% from near-proximity (4.4% above the D1 average), and 46.1% overall (2.3% above the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Duquesne may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #273 in that department). Alabama State, meanwhile, should be considered slightly inferior in the category of defensive rebounding, and they're similarly pathetic in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #351 in that category). | | TURNOVERS: The Alabama State defense has a small advantage over the Duquesne offense in the turnover battle on this end. On offense, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Alabama State defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 54th in that category). | | FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. The Duquesne offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (215th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Alabama State defense predictably commits a ridiculous number of fouls, ranking 320th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Alabama State (104th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Duquesne (345th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: Duquesne may exceed expectations here, as their performances at home have been, on average, superior to their performances away from home. | | MOMENTUM: Duquesne appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (third in the country in positive momentum), while Alabama State (288th) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests. | | CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. Alabama State ranks 319th in the country in consistency, while Duquesne is currently 270th in that category. |
THE VERDICT: Alabama State definitely has a chance, but Duquesne is the right pick here. Duquesne 77.91, Alabama State 66.66. |
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