TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
St. Bonaventure  14-3 (0.824)  |  Atlantic 10
-- AT --
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 11, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.854 (54th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.595 (148th)
0.434 (224th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.503 (129th)
0.317 (43rd)
   Record Quality
  
-0.071 (210th)
79.19 (76th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
175.80 (174th)
-1.40 (252nd)
   Momentum
  
7.20 (1st)
-10.65 (307th)
   Consistency
  
-10.24 (282nd)
2.14 (19th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.55 (107th)
64.00 (340th)
   Pace
  
63.81 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
BONA
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 114.63 59 105.62 144
FTAR 29.80 96 32.74 328
FT% 74.24 116 -- --
FGAR 88.51 83 84.21 82
FG% 46.22 82 42.41 113
3P% 34.61 121 36.84 318
MR% 44.90 59 40.83 171
NP% 60.51 95 50.56 29
PPSt 16.03 36 12.22 175
SCC% 7.49 42 4.39 52
Prox 2.03 180 2.05 158
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
BONA
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.84 173 97.83 54
FTAR 26.49 210 21.20 13
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.67 32 86.80 192
FG% 42.49 238 40.23 48
3P% 34.76 113 31.95 117
MR% 42.79 116 39.42 123
NP% 54.91 242 54.52 100
PPSt 12.05 192 9.59 35
SCC% 4.86 266 5.66 167
Prox 2.17 348 2.17 10
ST. BONAVENTURE IN POSSESSION:
When pitted against the Duquesne defense, the St. Bonaventure offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. St. Bonaventure is currently 59th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Duquesne nationally comes in at #144 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The St. Bonaventure offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the St. Bonaventure offense will be 31.3% three-pointers (7.3% below the D1 average), 41.5% mid-range jumpers (15.1% above the D1 average), and 27.1% near-proximity twos (7.8% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: St. Bonaventure has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #82 team in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 113th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the St. Bonaventure offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. This site expects St. Bonaventure to shoot 37.9% from three (4.4% above the D1 average), 43.8% from the mid-range (2.7% above the D1 average), 52.4% from near-proximity locations (5.0% below the D1 average), and 44.3% overall (0.4% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: The rebounding edge doesn't significantly go to either team in this contest. St. Bonaventure has the fingerprint of a team that's above-average, yet not outstanding, on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 42nd in that category). The opposition here, Duquesne, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise been proficient preventing foes from scoring via putbacks (ranked #52 in the NCAA in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne defense likely won't force many turnovers against the St. Bonaventure offense. On offense, St. Bonaventure protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 83rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (35th in the country). Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: St. Bonaventure should obtain a fairly healthy number of free throw attempts in this matchup. They're usually a team that is fairly decent at booking trips to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #96 in free throw attempt rate), and they're above-average shooters from there (74.2%, ranked #116 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Duquesne D sends opposing offenses to the foul line non-stop and ranks 328th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
The Duquesne offense appears to be at an analytical disadvantage when matched up against the St. Bonaventure defense. This site rates St. Bonaventure to be 54th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #173 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the St. Bonaventure defense similarly surrenders significantly more opportunities from the outside. Against the St. Bonaventure defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 48.6% three-pointers (10.0% above the D1 average), 32.6% mid-range jumpers (6.1% above the D1 average), and 18.8% near-proximity twos (16.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #238 in overall field goal conversion rate. The St. Bonaventure defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 48th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the St. Bonaventure defense gets the analytical nod in near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 33.6% from behind the arc (0.1% above the D1 average), 41.7% from mid-range locations (0.7% above the D1 average), 51.5% from near-proximity (5.9% below the D1 average), and 39.6% overall (4.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: St. Bonaventure may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Duquesne is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #266 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, St. Bonaventure, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #167 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: Duquesne may struggle with turnovers against this St. Bonaventure defense. When in possession, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the St. Bonaventure D is fairly aggressive and is certainly capable of coming away with their fair share of steals. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 36th in that category).
FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Duquesne offense here. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (210th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). Meanwhile, the aggressive St. Bonaventure defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 13th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The tempo in this contest should be as slow as molasses in the winter. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Duquesne is 345th nationally in game pace, while St. Bonaventure currently ranks 340th.
AWAY/HOME COURT: St. Bonaventure has performed far better away from home this year than they have at home. Unfortunately for them, they face Duquesne, who has played their best basketball this season in front of their home crowd.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne appears to have a noteworthy momentum advantage. They come into this game playing above their norm (first in the country in positive momentum), while St. Bonaventure (252nd) has been more inefficient than normal in recent contests.
CONSISTENCY: This contest features two of the NCAA's more erratic teams. St. Bonaventure ranks 307th in the country in consistency, while Duquesne is currently 282nd in that category.

THE VERDICT:
This contest has the potential to be very competitive, but St. Bonaventure is the better team on this day. St. Bonaventure 67.47, Duquesne 61.30.