TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
New Mexico  6-2 (0.750)  |  Mountain West
-- AT --
San Diego State  4-2 (0.667)  |  Mountain West
Includes games through December 1, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.843 (58th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.879 (44th)
0.590 (62nd)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.871 (2nd)
0.349 (42nd)
   Record Quality
  
0.374 (32nd)
67.07 (67th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
52.17 (54th)
0.72 (52nd)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-8.46 (173rd)
   Consistency
  
-8.62 (197th)
0.65 (92nd)
   Away/Home Court   
-3.61 (346th)
72.64 (6th)
   Pace
 
66.50 (301st)
IN POSSESSION
NM
SDSU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 113.53 53 96.23 36
FTAR 31.22 31 26.87 194
FT% 67.16 285 -- --
FGAR 88.75 45 86.32 222
FG% 46.41 68 38.33 7
3P% 36.47 54 32.25 95
MR% 35.67 322 34.07 20
NP% 59.89 101 49.70 9
PPSt 18.41 2 9.11 16
SCC% 7.48 28 6.61 312
Prox 1.88 2 2.07 82
IN POSSESSION
SDSU
NM
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 113.32 56 97.18 49
FTAR 27.64 140 25.92 141
FT% 65.89 306 -- --
FGAR 88.63 51 83.04 53
FG% 47.00 45 42.22 97
3P% 36.48 52 33.60 174
MR% 42.70 66 39.21 160
NP% 61.71 60 52.46 30
PPSt 14.30 68 10.06 47
SCC% 6.29 90 5.64 204
Prox 2.02 156 1.99 289
NEW MEXICO IN POSSESSION:
There isn't much of an advantage either way here when New Mexico is in possession of the basketball. This site rates San Diego State to be 36th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while New Mexico is currently our #53 squad in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are conflicting shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The New Mexico offense is largely in favor of inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the San Diego State defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the San Diego State defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the New Mexico offense will be 32.1% three-pointers (6.0% below the D1 average), 27.9% mid-range jumpers (1.2% above the D1 average), and 40.0% near-proximity twos (4.8% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: New Mexico does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 68th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the San Diego State defense has been ruthless and relentless, repeatedly shutting down opposing shooters and ranking as our #7 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the New Mexico offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the San Diego State defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects New Mexico to shoot 34.2% from three (0.5% above the D1 average), 30.0% from the mid-range (9.7% below the D1 average), 53.1% from near-proximity locations (4.6% below the D1 average), and 40.6% overall (3.2% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: New Mexico has a massive rebounding advantage on this end of the floor. New Mexico has to be considered a legitimate force on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 28th nationally in that category. San Diego State, meanwhile, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have been worse keeping their opponents' putback conversion percentages down (ranked 312th in the nation in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. Offensively, New Mexico exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 45th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (47th in the country). As for the opposition, the San Diego State defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 68th in that category).
FREE THROWS: New Mexico will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that likes to get to the charity stripe frequently (31st in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (67.2%, ranked #285 in Division I). Meanwhile, the contentious San Diego State defense sports a fairly mediocre defensive free throw attempt rate, one that rates 194th in the NCAA this season.

SAN DIEGO STATE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when San Diego State is on offense. New Mexico is currently 49th in the country in defensive efficiency, while San Diego State nationally comes in at #56 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the New Mexico defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the San Diego State offense will be 35.4% three-pointers (2.8% below the D1 average), 26.9% mid-range jumpers (0.2% above the D1 average), and 37.7% near-proximity twos (2.6% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: San Diego State has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #45 team in overall field goal percentage this season. The New Mexico defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 97th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the San Diego State offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the New Mexico defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. We expect San Diego State to shoot 37.0% from behind the arc (3.3% above the D1 average), 43.0% from mid-range locations (3.3% above the D1 average), 57.1% from near-proximity (0.6% below the D1 average), and 46.2% overall (2.5% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: San Diego State should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. San Diego State appears to do a pretty decent job on the offensive boards. They are also somewhat above-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 90th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, New Mexico, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #204 in that category).
TURNOVERS: The New Mexico defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. On offense, San Diego State protects the basketball pretty well and won't cough up the rock too many times. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 51st in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (16th in the country). Meanwhile, the New Mexico D is a profoundly aggressive unit, capable of forcing tons of turnovers. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #2 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #53 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. San Diego State is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #140 in free throw attempt rate), though they're not one of the better shooting teams from there (65.9%, 306th in the country). As for the opposition, the turnover-hungry New Mexico defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 141st in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. New Mexico (sixth in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while San Diego State (301st) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We expect a potential performance bump for visiting New Mexico here. They have performed better away from home this year than they have at home. To boot, they are facing San Diego State, a team that has played their very worst basketball this season while in front of their home crowd.
CONSISTENCY: New Mexico is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible.

THE VERDICT:
These squads should be pretty competitive with one another. The analytics are picking San Diego State in a fairly tight contest. San Diego State 76.99, New Mexico 72.53.