TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Princeton  12-4 (0.750)  |  Ivy
-- AT --
Duquesne  7-9 (0.438)  |  Atlantic 10
Includes games through January 12, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.614 (141st)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.595 (148th)
0.458 (191st)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.502 (130th)
0.226 (69th)
   Record Quality
  
-0.071 (209th)
126.70 (125th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
175.41 (174th)
-0.03 (176th)
   Momentum
  
7.17 (1st)
-7.64 (38th)
   Consistency
  
-10.23 (282nd)
2.01 (19th)
   Away/Home Court   
1.56 (104th)
67.50 (159th)
Pace
  
63.75 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
PRIN
DUQ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 110.17 120 105.75 147
FTAR 27.24 182 32.72 330
FT% 69.09 275 -- --
FGAR 85.83 194 84.41 88
FG% 45.10 121 42.39 113
3P% 36.29 62 36.79 313
MR% 37.86 291 40.88 171
NP% 60.12 106 50.53 28
PPSt 10.47 280 12.20 176
SCC% 4.83 270 4.35 49
Prox 2.09 279 2.05 158
IN POSSESSION
DUQ
PRIN
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.86 174 107.70 190
FTAR 26.53 208 28.43 230
FT% 61.26 356 -- --
FGAR 90.70 32 83.82 73
FG% 42.46 236 45.17 226
3P% 34.83 116 33.94 205
MR% 42.70 119 39.55 128
NP% 54.78 245 61.79 309
PPSt 11.95 198 10.81 84
SCC% 4.84 268 6.38 252
Prox 2.17 347 2.04 170
PRINCETON IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Princeton should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. This site rates Princeton to be 120th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Duquesne is currently our #147 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Princeton offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Duquesne defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Duquesne defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Princeton offense will be 41.2% three-pointers (2.6% above the D1 average), 27.5% mid-range jumpers (1.0% above the D1 average), and 31.3% near-proximity twos (3.6% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Princeton is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 121st nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. The Duquesne defense, meanwhile, has been doing a fairly decent job to defend opposing shooters, ranking 113th in the NCAA in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Princeton offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Duquesne defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Princeton to shoot 39.0% from three (5.4% above the D1 average), 38.1% from the mid-range (3.0% below the D1 average), 52.9% from near-proximity locations (4.5% below the D1 average), and 43.1% overall (0.8% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Duquesne will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Princeton is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #270 in that department). Duquesne, meanwhile, appears a bit superior to the D1 average in the category of defensive rebounding, and they've similarly done great work curbing points via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked 49th in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Princeton offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Duquesne defense. When in possession, Princeton exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 84th in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the Duquesne defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: Princeton will probably acquire more foul line chances than normal in this contest. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #182 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.1%, ranked #275 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Duquesne D appears to commit far too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 330th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DUQUESNE IN POSSESSION:
These two squads are very evenly matched when Duquesne is on offense. The Duquesne offense is ranked #174 in Division I, while Princeton comes in nationally at #190 on defense.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Duquesne offense exhibits a strong preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Princeton defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Princeton defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Duquesne offense will be 43.5% three-pointers (5.0% above the D1 average), 30.5% mid-range jumpers (4.0% above the D1 average), and 25.9% near-proximity twos (9.0% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Duquesne has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 236th nationally in that category this year. Meanwhile, the Princeton defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 226th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Duquesne offense has an analytical edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two opposing units are rated fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. We expect Duquesne to shoot 35.6% from behind the arc (2.0% above the D1 average), 41.9% from mid-range locations (0.9% above the D1 average), 61.6% from near-proximity (4.3% above the D1 average), and 44.3% overall (0.4% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Duquesne lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 268th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, Princeton, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, but they've been a little bit worse when trying to suppress foes' second-chance conversion rates (rated #252 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: The Duquesne offense has a small advantage over the Princeton defense in the turnover game on this end. Offensively, Duquesne is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. As for the opposition, the Princeton defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #280 ranking in that category.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Duquesne obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (208th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (61.3%, ninth from the bottom in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved Princeton defense is fairly average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 230th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The tempo in this particular contest should be more on the slow side of things. Princeton (159th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Duquesne (345th) would rather maintain a slower pace.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Princeton has performed far better away from home this year than they have at home. Unfortunately for them, they face Duquesne, who has played their best basketball this season in front of their home crowd.
MOMENTUM: Duquesne has the momentum edge here. They've been playing some better basketball recently and are presently ranked first in the country in positive momentum.
CONSISTENCY: Princeton is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams (38th nationally in consistency), while Duquesne (282nd in consistency) is definitely more on the erratic side.

THE VERDICT:
Two very evenly matched teams here. A basket or two is all that separates them. Duquesne 70.69, Princeton 68.41.