TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Missouri  5-1 (0.833)  |  SEC
-- AT --
South Carolina  3-2 (0.600)  |  SEC
Includes games through November 24, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.898 (38th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.758 (89th)
0.242 (341st)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.410 (236th)
0.208 (97th)
   Record Quality
  
0.066 (156th)
69.86 (68th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
86.14 (89th)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
N/A (N/A)
-10.23 (262nd)
   Consistency
  
-5.72 (55th)
-8.13 (324th)
   Away/Home Court   
2.80 (90th)
68.33 (241st)
Pace
  
66.15 (345th)
IN POSSESSION
MIZZ
SC
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 115.63 32 102.06 105
FTAR 32.84 5 28.69 268
FT% 76.32 59 -- --
FGAR 85.06 201 86.42 252
FG% 46.51 58 41.86 72
3P% 35.17 93 33.63 176
MR% 39.41 179 37.27 86
NP% 62.45 44 54.91 64
PPSt 15.41 23 11.28 117
SCC% 7.49 26 5.00 102
Prox 2.00 136 2.02 196
IN POSSESSION
SC
MIZZ
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 111.49 65 100.99 90
FTAR 29.75 59 26.15 140
FT% 69.70 218 -- --
FGAR 87.68 63 84.06 95
FG% 44.92 112 41.24 53
3P% 34.39 135 34.04 202
MR% 41.18 92 35.56 41
NP% 58.81 129 54.94 66
PPSt 10.21 302 9.32 12
SCC% 6.01 96 5.70 235
Prox 2.03 209 2.07 46
MISSOURI IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, Missouri should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. Missouri is currently 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency, while South Carolina nationally comes in at #105 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the South Carolina defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Missouri offense will be 35.1% three-pointers (2.7% below the D1 average), 29.6% mid-range jumpers (3.0% above the D1 average), and 35.4% near-proximity twos (0.2% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Missouri does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 58th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the South Carolina defense sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 72nd in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the Missouri offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the South Carolina defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Missouri to shoot 34.7% from three (0.9% above the D1 average), 36.8% from the mid-range (2.6% below the D1 average), 59.2% from near-proximity locations (1.5% above the D1 average), and 44.0% overall (0.2% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Missouri may have a modest rebounding edge on this end of the floor. Missouri appears to be one of the better offensive rebounding units in all of Division I. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 26th in that category). South Carolina, meanwhile, appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've similarly been fairly efficient in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked 102nd in the nation in that category).
TURNOVERS: Missouri should not have any turnover concerns whatsoever vs. the South Carolina defense. On offense, Missouri exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly stellar, as the squad places 12th in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the South Carolina defense won't typically generate ball-security issues for opposing offenses. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #302 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#252 in the nation).
FREE THROWS: The Missouri offense will likely find their way to the free throw line quite a bit here. They're usually a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #5 in free throw attempt rate), and they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.3%, ranked #59 in Division I). Meanwhile, the conservative South Carolina defense sends opposing offenses to the free throw line more often than one would expect, ranking 268th nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate.

SOUTH CAROLINA IN POSSESSION:
When pitted against the Missouri defense, the South Carolina offense appears to have somewhat of an advantage. This site rates South Carolina to be 65th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Missouri is currently our #90 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The South Carolina offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Missouri defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Missouri defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the South Carolina offense will be 41.9% three-pointers (4.1% above the D1 average), 24.6% mid-range jumpers (2.0% below the D1 average), and 33.5% near-proximity twos (2.1% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: South Carolina has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #112 team in overall field goal percentage. The Missouri defense, meanwhile, has done well to keep their opponents' shooting percentages down (rated our #53 team in defensive field goal percentage this year). On this end of the court, the South Carolina offense has a notable advantage in three-point shooting, while the Missouri defense has the edge in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting. We expect South Carolina to shoot 35.0% from behind the arc (1.3% above the D1 average), 37.4% from mid-range locations (1.9% below the D1 average), 57.3% from near-proximity (0.4% below the D1 average), and 43.1% overall (0.7% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: South Carolina should comfortably win the rebounding battle on this end. South Carolina seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. They are also considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #96 in that department). The opposition here, Missouri, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #235 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: The Missouri defense is likely to force a few takeaways on this end of the floor. When in possession, South Carolina is a fairly average D1 team when it comes to ball-security. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 63rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is more than satisfactory (117th in the country). Meanwhile, the intrusive Missouri D will typically be up in your grill and can force several turnovers. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #23 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #95 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The South Carolina offense has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (59th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're rather mediocre converting their shots from there (69.7%, 218th in the country). As for the opposition, the aggressive Missouri defense is relatively average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 140th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Nobody will be in a huge rush to score in a contest such as this one. Both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. South Carolina is 345th nationally in game pace, while Missouri currently ranks 241st.
AWAY/HOME COURT: We would expect a potential performance bump for the home team here. South Carolina has performed better at home than they have away from home this season. To boot, they are facing Missouri, a team that has played their very worst basketball this year away from their home court.
CONSISTENCY: South Carolina appears to be one of college basketball's more consistent units (55th in the nation in consistency), while Missouri (262nd in consistency) has been much more erratic.

THE VERDICT:
Expect this to come down to the last few possessions. Missouri gets the victory by a narrow margin. Missouri 72.79, South Carolina 70.36.