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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through April 5, 2025.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.570 (156th)
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0.975 (10th)
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0.519 (123rd)
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0.759 (16th)
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-0.056 (205th)
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0.555 (6th)
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178.74 (171st)
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19.45 (20th)
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2.20 (84th)
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1.26 (124th)
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-7.38 (3rd)
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-8.51 (52nd)
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-0.67 (220th)
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-0.23 (246th)
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70.99 (6th)
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65.89 (233rd)
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 IN POSSESSION
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INST
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MSU
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| Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
| Eff |
111.96 |
98 |
91.84 |
5 |
| FTAR |
28.53 |
129 |
24.35 |
77 |
| FT% |
76.27 |
57 |
-- |
-- |
| FGAR |
82.64 |
349 |
86.41 |
149 |
| FG% |
45.61 |
99 |
37.61 |
8 |
| 3P% |
36.30 |
68 |
26.95 |
1 |
| MR% |
33.27 |
319 |
34.53 |
72 |
| NP% |
59.36 |
153 |
53.55 |
34 |
| PPSt |
10.80 |
261 |
10.73 |
72 |
| SCC% |
5.16 |
261 |
4.04 |
14 |
| Prox |
2.08 |
282 |
2.08 |
62 |
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 IN POSSESSION
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MSU
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INST
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| Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
| Eff |
122.22 |
18 |
111.35 |
243 |
| FTAR |
34.55 |
5 |
29.67 |
277 |
| FT% |
78.23 |
24 |
-- |
-- |
| FGAR |
89.10 |
93 |
85.64 |
103 |
| FG% |
47.50 |
44 |
46.38 |
294 |
| 3P% |
35.01 |
124 |
34.23 |
186 |
| MR% |
38.22 |
144 |
42.88 |
343 |
| NP% |
66.08 |
15 |
59.72 |
211 |
| PPSt |
10.81 |
260 |
13.75 |
293 |
| SCC% |
8.04 |
28 |
6.48 |
239 |
| Prox |
1.97 |
83 |
1.97 |
291 |
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INDIANA STATE IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the Michigan State defense, this Indiana State offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. Michigan State is currently fifth in the country in defensive efficiency, while Indiana State nationally comes in at #98 in offensive efficiency.  | SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Indiana State offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Michigan State defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Michigan State defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Indiana State offense will be 51.0% three-pointers (12.3% above the D1 average), 11.9% mid-range jumpers (12.8% below the D1 average), and 37.1% near-proximity twos (0.5% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Indiana State is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 99th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. The Michigan State defense, meanwhile, has been ruthless and relentless, repeatedly shutting down opposing shooters and ranking as our #8 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Michigan State defense appears to have a noteworthy advantage at all three levels on this end. This site expects Indiana State to shoot 29.9% from three (4.2% below the D1 average), 26.3% from the mid-range (11.1% below the D1 average), 53.7% from near-proximity locations (5.1% below the D1 average), and 38.3% overall (5.7% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Michigan State has an enormous rebounding advantage at this end. Indiana State appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. They are considered to be somewhat below-average in second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #261 in that department). Their opponent in this matchup, Michigan State, cleans the defensive glass at an extremely high level, and they're similarly outstanding in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (nationally ranked 14th in that category). | | TURNOVERS: There shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team in this department. When in possession, Indiana State isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their field goal attempt rate is egregiously bad (rated 349th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very shoddy (293rd in the country). As for the opposition, the Michigan State defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #260 ranking in that category. | | FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. The Indiana State offense obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #129 in free throw attempt rate), though they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.3%, 57th in the country). As for the opposition, the more reserved Michigan State defense predictably does a fine job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 77th in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
MICHIGAN STATE IN POSSESSION:
The Indiana State defense will likely fold quite easily against the Michigan State offensive attack. This site rates Michigan State to be 18th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Indiana State is currently our #243 squad in defensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Michigan State offense leans slightly in favor of an inside attack, while the Indiana State defense similarly tends to allow more chances from inside the paint. Against the Indiana State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Michigan State offense will be 32.6% three-pointers (6.2% below the D1 average), 26.8% mid-range jumpers (2.1% above the D1 average), and 40.6% near-proximity twos (4.0% above the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Michigan State has been converting field goals at a solid rate and is rated our #44 team in overall field goal percentage this season. Meanwhile, the Indiana State defense has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #294 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Michigan State offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Michigan State to shoot 35.7% from behind the arc (1.6% above the D1 average), 43.2% from mid-range locations (5.8% above the D1 average), 67.2% from near-proximity (8.4% above the D1 average), and 50.5% overall (6.5% above the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Michigan State has a massive rebounding advantage on this end of the floor. Michigan State has to be considered a legitimate force on the offensive glass. Additionally, they are extremely solid at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 28th in that category). Meanwhile, Indiana State has the appearance of a team whose defensive rebounding abilities are a bit subpar, but they perform slightly better in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #239 in that category). | | TURNOVERS: The Indiana State defense likely won't force many turnovers against the Michigan State offense. Offensively, Michigan State exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 93rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (72nd in the country). Meanwhile, the Indiana State defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #261 ranking in that category. | | FREE THROWS: Michigan State should be able to get to the foul line early and often in this contest. They're typically a team that heavily relies on obtaining chances from the charity stripe (fifth in the country in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (78.2%, ranked #24 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Indiana State D appears to commit a bit too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 277th in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: Expect a slightly faster tempo than normal when these two ball-clubs meet. Indiana State (sixth nationally in game pace) prefers a faster tempo, while Michigan State (233rd) likes more of an in-between game speed. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: Michigan State may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, inferior to their performances away from home. | | MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Indiana State is 84th in the country in positive momentum, while Michigan State currently ranks 124th. | | CONSISTENCY: Both of these squads are pretty consistent from an efficiency perspective. Indiana State ranks third in the country in consistency, while Michigan State is presently 52nd in that category. |
THE VERDICT:
Per the analytics, this one shouldn't be close. We'd expect Michigan State to roll. Michigan State 90.48, Indiana State 65.66. |
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