TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Indiana State  3-3 (0.500)  |  Missouri Valley
-- AT --
Michigan State  6-2 (0.750)  |  Big Ten
Includes games through November 27, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.504 (181st)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.923 (29th)
0.312 (318th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.594 (51st)
-0.234 (279th)
   Record Quality
  
0.334 (46th)
153.12 (150th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
26.60 (26th)
N/A (N/A)
   Momentum
  
0.01 (43rd)
-9.27 (241st)
   Consistency
  
-7.78 (149th)
-1.50 (258th)
   Away/Home Court   
-1.44 (312th)
72.26 (16th)
   Pace
 
67.34 (293rd)
IN POSSESSION
INST
MSU
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 106.53 137 95.64 28
FTAR 23.18 336 22.84 24
FT% 76.22 65 -- --
FGAR 83.48 308 85.95 219
FG% 45.36 105 39.85 25
3P% 34.75 126 29.90 17
MR% 44.48 23 39.43 165
NP% 59.13 120 52.54 26
PPSt 11.92 182 10.23 52
SCC% 4.12 332 4.34 36
Prox 2.09 322 2.07 57
IN POSSESSION
MSU
INST
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 114.30 46 107.89 228
FTAR 30.01 51 27.01 186
FT% 80.39 16 -- --
FGAR 86.89 90 86.25 238
FG% 47.09 40 45.23 250
3P% 28.49 357 34.09 191
MR% 45.30 16 42.39 292
NP% 66.57 4 59.04 226
PPSt 11.71 192 12.89 253
SCC% 5.93 116 6.39 300
Prox 1.99 92 2.01 204
INDIANA STATE IN POSSESSION:
The Michigan State defense will very likely have a solid upper hand on the Indiana State offense in this particular matchup. Michigan State is currently 28th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Indiana State nationally comes in at #137 in offensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Indiana State offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Michigan State defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Michigan State defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Indiana State offense will be 46.3% three-pointers (8.4% above the D1 average), 21.4% mid-range jumpers (5.5% below the D1 average), and 32.3% near-proximity twos (2.9% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Indiana State has been a bit above the D1 average in floor shooting this year and is rated our #105 team in overall field goal percentage. The Michigan State defense, meanwhile, has done exceptional work to keep opponents' shooting percentages in check (nationally ranked #25 in defensive field goal conversion rate). On this end of the court, the Indiana State offense has a notable advantage in mid-range shooting, while the Michigan State defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting. This site expects Indiana State to shoot 31.0% from three (2.9% below the D1 average), 43.0% from the mid-range (3.3% above the D1 average), 53.2% from near-proximity locations (4.4% below the D1 average), and 40.7% overall (3.1% below the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Michigan State should easily control the boards on this end of the floor. Indiana State appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. On the other hand, they are actually well below-average at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 332nd in that category). Meanwhile, Michigan State appears to be one of the better defensive rebounding units in Division I, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #36 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage).
TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. When in possession, Indiana State rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Their field goal attempt rate is well below-average (rated 308th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is less than satisfactory (253rd in the country). Meanwhile, the Michigan State defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: Indiana State will very likely struggle to get to the free throw line in this matchup. They're usually a team that won't see many opportunities at the charity stripe (336th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.2%, ranked #65 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Michigan State D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking 24th in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

MICHIGAN STATE IN POSSESSION:
When on offense, Michigan State should have a fairly sizeable advantage on Indiana State. This site rates Michigan State to be 46th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Indiana State is currently our #228 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Indiana State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Michigan State offense will be 33.1% three-pointers (4.8% below the D1 average), 31.5% mid-range jumpers (4.6% above the D1 average), and 35.4% near-proximity twos (0.2% above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Michigan State does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 40th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Indiana State defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#250 in the country). On this end of the court, the Michigan State offense has a notable advantage in both mid-range shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the Indiana State defense has the edge in three-point shooting. We expect Michigan State to shoot 29.2% from behind the arc (4.7% below the D1 average), 47.9% from mid-range locations (8.3% above the D1 average), 68.7% from near-proximity (11.1% above the D1 average), and 49.1% overall (5.3% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Michigan State appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. Michigan State seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. They are also considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #116 in that department). Indiana State, meanwhile, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have been worse keeping their opponents' putback conversion percentages down (ranked 300th in the nation in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: Michigan State will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Indiana State defense. Offensively, Michigan State exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. Their field goal attempt rate is very respectable (rated 90th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (52nd in the country). As for the opposition, the Indiana State D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.
FREE THROWS: We expect an above-average number of free throw opportunities for the Michigan State offense here. They're typically a team that has a nose for getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #51 in free throw attempt rate), and they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (80.4%, 16th in the country). As for the opposition, the Indiana State D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 186th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Indiana State (16th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Michigan State (293rd) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
AWAY/HOME COURT: Indiana State has performed worse away from home this year than they have at home. Luckily for them, they are facing Michigan State, who has played their most inefficient basketball this season when competing on their home floor.
CONSISTENCY: Indiana State is one of the NCAA's more inconsistent teams, ranking 241st nationally in consistency. Michigan State rates closer to the D1 average.

THE VERDICT:
An upset is not a complete impossibility, but Michigan State should have this one well in hand. Michigan State 84.43, Indiana State 66.32.