TIME-DEPENDENT RATINGS
TIME-INDEPENDENT RATINGS
Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
Indiana State  6-4 (0.600)  |  Missouri Valley
-- AT --
Bradley  8-2 (0.800)  |  Missouri Valley
Includes games through December 14, 2024.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
0.430 (208th)
   All-Play Percentage
  
0.785 (79th)
0.331 (337th)
   Schedule Strength
  
0.496 (142nd)
-0.032 (191st)
   Record Quality
  
0.324 (50th)
172.69 (170th)
   Avg. Season Rank
  
77.95 (75th)
1.97 (46th)
   Momentum
  
0.72 (122nd)
-6.80 (39th)
   Consistency
  
-10.03 (255th)
0.15 (140th)
   Away/Home Court   
0.41 (179th)
71.38 (19th)
   Pace
65.84 (274th)
IN POSSESSION
INST
BRAD
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 108.86 127 107.04 186
FTAR 19.33 358 28.54 248
FT% 76.52 58 -- --
FGAR 83.70 283 87.84 266
FG% 47.32 56 42.52 110
3P% 35.60 113 33.00 142
MR% 52.83 5 43.76 257
NP% 61.48 77 52.12 49
PPSt 9.37 319 12.67 209
SCC% 3.60 340 7.64 335
Prox 2.14 330 2.04 180
IN POSSESSION
BRAD
INST
Cat Rtg Rk Rtg Rk
Eff 116.32 43 113.07 310
FTAR 21.84 327 28.17 235
FT% 76.26 66 -- --
FGAR 83.90 272 86.89 223
FG% 50.09 9 47.32 314
3P% 43.33 2 34.09 185
MR% 40.90 185 46.03 310
NP% 69.56 3 62.20 307
PPSt 11.11 228 14.92 316
SCC% 4.11 313 5.83 211
Prox 2.15 333 2.02 215
INDIANA STATE IN POSSESSION:
The Indiana State offense appears to have a bit of an edge on the Bradley defense at this end of the floor. Indiana State is currently 127th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Bradley nationally comes in at #186 in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: There are comparable shot preferences for these two units on this end of the floor. The Indiana State offense exhibits a solid preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Bradley defense similarly surrenders more opportunities from the outside. Against the Bradley defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Indiana State offense will be 48.1% three-pointers (9.2% above the D1 average), 17.3% mid-range jumpers (9.2% below the D1 average), and 34.6% near-proximity twos (a shade above the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Indiana State does a pretty good job to convert shots each possession, ranking 56th in the country in overall field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Bradley defense has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #110 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the Indiana State offense has a notable advantage in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the Bradley defense has the edge in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Indiana State to shoot 34.5% from three (0.6% above the D1 average), 54.6% from the mid-range (13.5% above the D1 average), 55.2% from near-proximity locations (2.4% below the D1 average), and 45.1% overall (1.2% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: There's no major advantage for either ball-club here. Indiana State appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. That being said, they're actually horrible when it comes to converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 340th nationally in that category. The opposition here, Bradley, is fairly average when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities, but they've been very ineffective stopping opponents from scoring on offensive putbacks (ranked #335 in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
TURNOVERS: The Bradley defense has a small advantage over the Indiana State offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, Indiana State isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their field goal attempt rate is not very good (rated 283rd in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very shoddy (316th in the country). As for the opposition, the Bradley defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.
FREE THROWS: There's a bit of a push here in this category. Indiana State is a team that very rarely visits the charity stripe (seventh from the bottom in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.5%, ranked #58 in Division I). Meanwhile, the Bradley D appears to commit a bit too many fouls by NCAA standards and nationally ranks 248th in defensive free throw attempt rate.

BRADLEY IN POSSESSION:
When in possession of the basketball, Bradley should have little trouble dealing with the Indiana State defense. This site rates Bradley to be 43rd in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Indiana State is currently our #310 squad in defensive efficiency.
SHOT SELECTION: The Bradley offense leans solidly in favor of a perimeter attack, while the Indiana State defense is more balanced, allowing a combination of shots from both the perimeter and the paint. Against the Indiana State defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Bradley offense will be 43.1% three-pointers (4.2% above the D1 average), 26.1% mid-range jumpers (0.4% below the D1 average), and 30.7% near-proximity twos (3.8% below the D1 average).
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Bradley is a superbly efficient team when it comes to shooting, as the unit is ranked ninth in the country in overall field goal percentage. The Indiana State defense, meanwhile, has not done a great job to shut down opposing shooters, rated our #314 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. The Bradley offense sports a comfortable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. We expect Bradley to shoot 43.8% from behind the arc (9.9% above the D1 average), 46.1% from mid-range locations (5.0% above the D1 average), 75.3% from near-proximity (17.7% above the D1 average), and 54.1% overall (10.1% above the D1 average).
REBOUNDING: Indiana State may very well have a slight rebounding advantage at this end of the floor. Bradley is really nothing special on the offensive glass. However, they're quite incapable of scoring quickly off of their second-chance opportunities (rated 313th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage). Their opponent in this matchup, Indiana State, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, and they're similarly so-so in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #211 in the country in that department).
TURNOVERS: Bradley will likely keep the basketball very secure against this Indiana State defense. Offensively, Bradley rates somewhat close to the Division I norm when it comes to protecting the basketball. Meanwhile, the Indiana State D is more conservatively-minded and won't typically come away with a lot of steals. Furthermore, they'll rarely convert takeaways into quick points, evidenced by their #319 ranking in that category.
FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Bradley won't see many opportunities at the charity stripe (nationally ranked #327 in free throw attempt rate), though they're pretty good at converting their foul shots (76.3%, 66th in the country). As for the opposition, the conservative Indiana State defense is fairly average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 235th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Indiana State (19th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Bradley (274th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be.
AWAY/HOME COURT: The analytics fail to reveal a significant advantage for either team in this category.
MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. Indiana State is 46th in the country in positive momentum, while Bradley currently ranks 122nd.
CONSISTENCY: Indiana State is one of the NCAA's more consistent teams (39th nationally in consistency), while Bradley (255th in consistency) is definitely more on the erratic side.

THE VERDICT:
Indiana State could put up a fight, but we still expect Bradley to win somewhat comfortably. Bradley 88.24, Indiana State 74.24.