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Automated 2024-25 Game Preview
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Includes games through November 23, 2024. Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.
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0.975 (10th)
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0.793 (76th)
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0.547 (102nd)
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0.313 (301st)
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0.593 (7th)
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-0.052 (207th)
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6.52 (6th)
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57.29 (59th)
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N/A (N/A)
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N/A (N/A)
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-8.74 (174th)
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-9.93 (227th)
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-1.95 (242nd)
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5.68 (62nd)
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70.51 (96th)
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66.56 (336th)
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IN POSSESSION
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KU
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NOVA
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
118.04 |
15 |
103.64 |
126 |
FTAR |
27.12 |
171 |
23.95 |
42 |
FT% |
68.31 |
246 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
88.38 |
31 |
86.88 |
281 |
FG% |
50.07 |
2 |
42.21 |
86 |
3P% |
36.80 |
35 |
33.48 |
155 |
MR% |
45.57 |
10 |
38.95 |
167 |
NP% |
65.78 |
8 |
55.87 |
99 |
PPSt |
13.46 |
92 |
11.41 |
128 |
SCC% |
5.97 |
99 |
4.26 |
34 |
Prox |
1.97 |
51 |
2.08 |
34 |
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IN POSSESSION
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NOVA
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KU
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Cat |
Rtg |
Rk |
Rtg |
Rk |
Eff |
112.50 |
53 |
93.55 |
14 |
FTAR |
26.76 |
194 |
23.56 |
31 |
FT% |
81.76 |
12 |
-- |
-- |
FGAR |
85.68 |
152 |
84.99 |
147 |
FG% |
45.59 |
88 |
38.66 |
8 |
3P% |
34.96 |
109 |
31.66 |
43 |
MR% |
42.03 |
53 |
35.04 |
29 |
NP% |
60.68 |
80 |
52.01 |
17 |
PPSt |
10.40 |
293 |
8.68 |
1 |
SCC% |
4.16 |
334 |
5.19 |
135 |
Prox |
2.07 |
302 |
2.10 |
18 |
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KANSAS IN POSSESSION: The Kansas offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the Villanova defense in this matchup. Kansas is currently 15th in the country in offensive efficiency, while Villanova nationally comes in at #126 in defensive efficiency. | SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams contrast somewhat on this end of the floor. The Kansas offense has a slight preference for inside shots over those from longer-distance, while the Villanova defense conversely tends to allow marginally more opportunities from the outside. Against the Villanova defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Kansas offense will be 36.5% three-pointers (1.3% below the D1 average), 29.8% mid-range jumpers (3.1% above the D1 average), and 33.8% near-proximity twos (1.8% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Kansas has been absolutely outstanding converting shots from the floor this season (#2 in overall field goal percentage). The Villanova defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #86 team nationally in that category). The Kansas offense has a noticeable advantage at all three levels on this end of the floor. This site expects Kansas to shoot 35.7% from three (1.9% above the D1 average), 44.7% from the mid-range (5.4% above the D1 average), 63.8% from near-proximity locations (6.1% above the D1 average), and 47.9% overall (4.1% above the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Villanova may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Kansas is really nothing special on the offensive glass. They are considered to be somewhat above-average when gauging second-chance conversion percentage (nationally rated #99 in that department). The opposition here, Villanova, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, and they've likewise effectively prevented opponents from scoring via offensive putbacks (nationally ranked #34 in defensive second-chance conversion percentage). | | TURNOVERS: Kansas should not have any turnover concerns whatsoever vs. the Villanova defense. When in possession, Kansas is consistently careful and responsible with the basketball. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 31st in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is almost spotless (first in the country). Meanwhile, the Villanova defense appears to be more on the conservative side when you look at turnovers forced. Our analytics rate them as deficient in both potential quick points scored off steals (ranked #293 in the nation) and defensive field goal attempt rate (#281 in the nation). | | FREE THROWS: We expect a below-average number of foul line opportunities for the Kansas offense here. They're usually a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (nationally ranked #171 in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.3%, ranked #246 in Division I). As for the opposition, the more reserved Villanova defense predictably does a superb job to keep opponents off the foul line, ranking 42nd in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
VILLANOVA IN POSSESSION: When analytically matched up against the Kansas defense, this Villanova offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. The Kansas defense is ranked #14 in Division I, while Villanova comes in nationally at #53 on offense. | SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. The Villanova offense exhibits a slight preference for perimeter shots over inside ones, while the Kansas defense similarly tends to allow more opportunities from the outside. Against the Kansas defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Villanova offense will be 43.3% three-pointers (5.5% above the D1 average), 28.3% mid-range jumpers (1.6% above the D1 average), and 28.5% near-proximity twos (7.1% below the D1 average). | | SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Villanova is fairly decent at draining shots from the floor, ranking 88th nationally in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Kansas defense has been ruthless and relentless, repeatedly shutting down opposing shooters and ranking as our #8 team in defensive field goal conversion rate. On this end of the court, the Kansas defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and near-proximity shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in mid-range shooting. We expect Villanova to shoot 33.4% from behind the arc (0.5% below the D1 average), 37.2% from mid-range locations (2.0% below the D1 average), 56.7% from near-proximity (1.0% below the D1 average), and 41.1% overall (2.7% below the D1 average). | | REBOUNDING: Kansas will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. Villanova lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. On the other hand, they are actually well below-average at scoring quickly off of second-chance opportunities (nationally rated 334th in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, Kansas, will rarely surrender second chances, but they perform slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #135 in that category). | | TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. Offensively, Villanova exhibits better ball-control skills than the average D1 squad. As for the opposition, the Kansas defense leans more on the aggressive side when it comes to pressure. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 92nd in that category). | | FREE THROWS: Villanova will probably acquire fewer free throw attempts than normal in this encounter. They're typically a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (194th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're capable of inflicting loads of damage from there (81.8%, 12th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious Kansas defense won't foul as much as you'd expect, ranking 31st nationally in defensive free throw attempt rate. |
THE X-FACTORS:
| PACE: We'd forecast a fairly average tempo by Division I standards here. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Kansas (96th in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Villanova (336th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be. | | AWAY/HOME COURT: We would expect a potential performance bump for the home team here. Villanova has performed better at home than they have away from home this season. To boot, they are facing Kansas, a team that has played their worst basketball this year away from their home court. | | CONSISTENCY: Kansas is the more consistent team from an efficiency standpoint, but the difference is largely negligible. |
THE VERDICT: This contest has the potential to be very competitive, but Kansas is the better team on this day. Kansas 77.02, Villanova 69.12. |
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